To develop a statistical model of winning times for international swimming events with the aim of predicting winning time distributions and the probability of winning for the 2020 and 2024 Olympic ...Games. The data set included first and third place times from all individual swimming events from the Olympics and World Championships from 1990 to 2019. We compared different model formulations fitted with Bayesian inference to obtain predictive distributions; comparisons were based on mean percentage error in out-of-sample predictions of Olympics and World Championships winning swim times from 2011 to 2019. The Bayesian time series regression model, comprising auto-regressive and moving average terms and other predictors, had the smallest mean prediction error of 0.57% (CI 0.46-0.74%). For context, using the respective previous Olympics or World Championships winning time resulted in a mean prediction error of 0.70% (CI 0.59-0.82%). The Olympics were on average 0.5% (CI 0.3-0.7%) faster than World Championships over the study period. The model computes the posterior predictive distribution, which allows coaches and athletes to evaluate the probability of winning given an individual's swim time, and the probability of being faster or slower than the previous winning time or even the world record.
The lifelong education of coaches is one of the priorities of the European Union. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate Italian elite coaches' motivation to engage in a ...sport-related academic education, and its demands, barriers, support, and relocation issues in relation to their dual career (DC) path. Sixteen Italian elite coaches (e.g., certified fourth-level national team coaches, senior team coaches) enrolled in a specifically tailored Bachelor's degree in sports sciences at the University of Rome Foro Italico (Italy) volunteered for this study. A qualitative approach integrating inductive and deductive reasoning, and thematic analysis was applied to participants' responses to an open-ended item survey. Independently from relocation, student-coaches' DC perceptions resulted in 15 lower-order themes further organized in 5 high-er-order themes (e.g., Benefit, Challenge, Expectation, Organization, and Support), each related to the contexts (e.g., Personal, Academic, Sport), the DC dimension (e.g., micro, meso, macro, and policy), and the DC push (e.g., facilitating) /pull (e.g., hindering) factors. The elite coaches' insights emphasize the complexity of the coach lifelong education at university level, and provide valuable information for promoting European and National (e.g., Italian) DC recommendations for elite sportspersons through a cooperation between sport bodies and higher educational institutions.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Detailed injury data are not available for international tournaments in field hockey. We investigated the epidemiology of field hockey injuries during major International Hockey Federation ...(Fédération Internationale de Hockey, FIH) tournaments in 2013.
FIH injury reports were used for data collection. All major FIH tournaments for women (n=5) and men (n=11) in 2013 were included. The main focus of this study was to assess the pattern, time, site on the pitch, body site and mechanism of each of the injuries. We calculated the average number of injuries per match and the number of injuries per 1000 player match hours.
The average number of injuries was 0.7 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.0) per match in women's tournaments and 1.2 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.7) per match in men's tournaments. The number of injuries per 1000 player match hours ranged from 23.4 to 44.2 (average 29.1; 95% CI 18.6 to 39.7) in women and 20.8 to 90.9 (average 48.3; 95% CI 30.9 to 65.8) in men. Most injuries occurred in the circle (n=25, 50%, in women, n=95, 51%, in men). The rate of injuries increased after the first quarter. Injuries to the head and face (n=20, 40%) were most common in women. The head/face (n=51, 27%) and the thigh/knee (n=52, 28%) were equally affected in men. The ball caused the most injuries, followed by the stick, collisions and tripping/falling. There were no deaths or injuries that required hospital treatment in the entire cohort.
Field hockey has a low incidence of acute injuries during competition.
Sport participation is a claimed benefit of elite sport events, but the facts do not support that claim, and means to capitalise upon events in order to build participation have yet to be developed. ...Through a combination of dialectical inquiry, brainstorming, and nominal group, 12 expert panellists were invited to consider the challenges, opportunities, and prospects of leveraging sport events to enhance sport participation at local levels. The model consists of three elements: (1) the hierarchical nature of the context (culture; opinions and attitudes; systems and structures), (2) three types of organisations with a stake in the leveraging process (event, sport, and non-sport entities), and (3) resources needed (human, physical, and knowledge). The centre reflects the core, which is sport participation. A series of strategic questions are presented to guide formulation and implementation of strategies and tactics for leveraging sport events to build sport participation. The findings are consistent with sport development outcomes from the 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games. It is concluded that sport events can be leveraged to enhance sport participation if the necessary alliances among sport organisations, event organisers and non-sport stakeholders are forged to integrate each event into the marketing mix of sport organisations. It is also noted that potential barriers to enhanced participation need to be addressed, particularly lack of available capacity to absorb new participants, crowding out of local participation by the event, and the disincentives resulting from elite performances that seem outside the reach of aspiring participants.
•We firstly assess the performance of participants in a two-stage Olympic process.•We extend the relational model (Kao & Hwang, 2008) to the VRS version.•A heuristic search procedure is applied to ...the non-linear extended model.•We prove that the efficiency for the entire two-stage Olympic process is unique.
This study measures the performance of participating nations at the Olympics, considering the quest for medals as a two-stage Olympic process. The first stage is characterized as athlete preparation (AP) and the second stage as athlete competition (AC). We extend the relational model from the constant returns to scale framework to the variable returns to scale version. The efficiency of each participating nation in the entire two-stage Olympic process is calculated as a product of the efficiencies of both stages, and a heuristic search is applied to the extended relational model. The efficiency of each stage can be obtained and directions for improving the performance of participating nations in the two-stage Olympic process can be identified. An empirical study of the 2012 London Summer Olympic Games reveals that the efficiency of the AP stage is higher than that of the AC stage for the majority of participants. In addition, a plot of the relationship between these three efficiencies shows that the efficiency of the entire two-stage Olympic process is more significantly related to that of the AC stage than that of the AP stage.
Purpose
This paper aims to verify the brand image effects of holding a sport mega-event by investigating the host city's influence on the country's branding, as a tourist destination.
...Design/methodology/approach
This research considered the Rio 2016 Olympic Games and uses quantitative methods: exploratory factor analysis and regression. Data were collected by structured questionnaires with a sample of (
n
= 274) international respondents with high international travel experience.
Findings
Rio de Janeiro's 2016 host city image positively predicted Brazil's tourist destination image. Both cognitive and affective image dimensions of Rio as a host city predicted Brazil's destination image, but the cognitive image dimensions demonstrated more impact.
Practical implications
Even in a mega-event context, city marketing strategies should be planned and executed with a focus on the country's destination image.
Originality/value
The study contributes by focusing on presenting the importance of the host city image dimensions to the host country destination image in a sports mega-event context. The study investigated a new approach, the impacts of affective and cognitive dimensions in the overall destination image considering two connected destinations and the hosting of a sport mega-event, a condition not found in the literature thus far.
Abstract Objectives Illness can disrupt training and competition performance of athletes. Few studies have quantified the relative contribution of the known medical, behavioural and lifestyle risk ...factors. Design Cross-sectional. Methods Olympic athletes from 11 sports (n = 221) were invited to complete questionnaires administered nine months before the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. These included the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Questionnaire (DASS-21), Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), Dispositional Resilience Scale (DRS), Recovery-Stress Questionnaire (REST-Q-52 item), Low Energy in Females Questionnaire (LEAF-Q), a modified Personal and Household Hygiene questionnaire, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and custom-made questionnaires on probiotic usage and travel. An illness (case) was defined as an event which limited training or competition for greater hours in the prior month. Odds ratios and attributable fractions in the population (AFP) were utilised for categorical variables with independent t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum for continuous variables. Results Eighty-one athletes responded (male, n = 26; female, n = 55). There were 16 illness cases and 65 controls. Female athletes were at higher odds of illness (OR = 9.4, 95%CI 1.3–410, p = 0.01, AFP = 0.84). Low energy availability (LEAF-Q score ≥8: OR = 7.4, 95%CI 0.78–352, p = 0.04, AFP = 0.76), depression symptoms (DASS-21: depression score >4, OR = 8.4, 95%CI 1.1–59, p < 0.01; AFP = 0.39) and higher perceived stress (PSS: 10-item, p = 0.04) were significantly associated with illness. Conclusions Female sex, low energy availability, and mental health are associated with sports incapacity (time loss) due to illness. Low energy availability had high attributable fractions in the population and stands out as a primary association with illness.
This paper examines gender diversity in sport governance globally. Theoretically, the study draws on gender dynamics in organisations, in particular on Kanter's concepts of gender ratios and critical ...mass. An audit of the gender ratio on boards of National Sport Organisations (n = 1,600) was conducted in 45 countries. Data were collected through the Sydney Scoreboard, an interactive website that tracks women's presence on sport boards internationally. Findings show that women remain underrepresented on three key indicators: as board directors (global mean 19.7 %), board chairs (10.8 %) and chief executives (16.3 %). Few countries have achieved a critical mass of 30 % representation and no continent has achieved the critical mass on any of the three indicators. Women's under-representation in sport governance is due to complex gender dynamics. Gender diversity on sport boards is associated with four interwoven dimensions of gender relations: production, power, emotion and symbolism. The combination of the four dimensions produces an environment that may or may not be conducive to gender diversity.
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