U ovom se radu primjenom teorije optimalnih valutnih područja analizira je li Hrvatska spremna za uvođenje eura. Ta teorija predlaže nekoliko kriterija koje bi neka država trebala zadovoljiti da bi ...mogla uspješno funkcionirati u uvjetima zajedničke monetarne politike. Većina kriterija odnosi se na utvrđivanje stupnja ekonomske integracije između pojedine države i monetarne unije, s obzirom na to da snažna ekonomska integriranost implicira manji rizik asimetričnih šokova. Analiza pokazuje da je hrvatsko gospodarstvo trgovinski i financijski vrlo integrirano s europodručjem, poslovni je ciklus usklađen s poslovnim ciklusima najvećih država članica europodručja, a pristupanjem EU-u povećao se i stupanj političke integracije između Hrvatske i ostalih članica. Prema tim kriterijima može se zaključiti da će Hrvatska učinkovito funkcionirati u uvjetima zajedničke monetarne politike. Nasuprot tome, relativno su slaba ostvarenja Hrvatske kada je riječ o kriteriju diversificiranosti gospodarstva. Osim povoljnih ostvarenja Hrvatske prema većini kriterija teorije optimalnih valutnih područja, postoje i drugi važni argumenti u prilog uvođenju eura u Hrvatskoj. Naime, uvođenjem eura nestao bi problem visoke euroiziranosti hrvatskoga gospodarstva, kao i niz drugih rizika i ograničenja koji proizlaze iz tog problema. Uvođenjem eura Hrvatska bi stoga napravila važan korak u smjeru dugoročnog očuvanja makroekonomske stabilnosti.
As the possibility of North Korean regime collapse has been raised and the economic gap between North and South Korea has been increasing, temporary separate operation has emerged as a way of ...economic integration of North and South Korea. Its main idea is that even if political integration is achieved rapidly, economic integration should proceed over time. It is generally accepted that temporary separate operation has desirable economic consequences but doubts about the feasibility are often raised because it is a scenario based on many assumptions, and politicians might prefer radical integration based on their short-term political interests. So, this paper aims to develop a temporary separate operation by providing more concrete reasons, by anticipating problems and by suggesting policy measures to enhance the feasibility. For this, the paper examines German reunification and European integration (especially Eurozone crisis) cases and compares them with the situations and features of economic and financial sectors of North and South Korea.
The objective of the article is to investigate the effects of the stage of integration on convergence in the European Union. The relationships between the selected macroeconomic variables and per ...capita GDP growth rate are econometrically tested for the period 2004-2018 and three sub-periods: the pre-crisis period 2004-2008, the crisis period 2009-2013, and the post-crisis period 2014-2018. Convergence is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) semi-log regression based on cross-sectional data. The findings show that convergence rates range between 1.9 percent and 4.8 percent. The positive effects of deeper integration are identified, as well as the negative effects of the 2008/2009 crisis. The empirical results suggest that the selected variables have an impact on the per capita GDP growth rate in at least one analyzed period.
he main purpose of this paper is to assess the synchronization of business cycles within the Franc zone countries for the period 1990-2013. For this purpose, we use supply and demand shocks and then ...construct an indicator of dispersion. Our results suggest that supply shocks in the CFA Franc zone tend to be symmetric after the year 2000. In contrast, Franc zone member states seem to have become more and more different and exposed to asymmetric demand shocks, especially after the year 2000. Results based on the computation of an indicator of dispersion highight the existence of business cycle synchronization in terms of demand shocks during the period of study. On their part, supply shocks appear to be synchronized only after the year 2000. Finally, a great number of countries still incur important costs due to their membership of the currency union and are consequently a source of cyclical divergence.
This contribution assesses the functioning of Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) during the first 20 years of the euro's existence. It argues that two formative intellectual currents ...converged at Maastricht to shape the design and reception of the euro regime: ordoliberalism and neoliberalism. Germany's ordoliberalism inspired and shaped the euro regime design. Neoliberalism fashioned the reception of what was agreed at Maastricht under the influence of Bundesbank dogma and power. As a product of the zeitgeist, Europe got stuck with a deeply flawed euro regime. The Maastricht Treaty institutionalized an asymmetric (growth-unfriendly) policy regime. This suited the macroeconomic mainstream well, fighting the '1970s stagflation war' for the past 40 years. Twenty years of euro disillusion have produced the exact opposite: 'stagdeflation.'
U ovom se radu primjenom teorije optimalnih valutnih područja analizira je li Hrvatska spremna za uvoðenje eura. Ta teorija predlaže nekoliko kriterija koje bi neka država trebala zadovoljiti da bi ...mogla uspješno funkcionirati u uvjetima zajedničke monetarne politike. Većina kriterija odnosi se na utvrðivanje stupnja ekonomske integracije izmeðu pojedine države i monetarne unije, s obzirom na to da snažna ekonomska integriranost implicira manji rizik asimetričnih šokova. Analiza pokazuje da je hrvatsko gospodarstvo trgovinski i financijski vrlo integrirano s europodručjem, poslovni je ciklus usklaðen s poslovnim ciklusima najvećih država članica europodručja, a pristupanjem EU-u povećao se i stupanj političke integracije izmeðu Hrvatske i ostalih članica. Prema tim kriterijima može se zaključiti da će Hrvatska učinkovito funkcionirati u uvjetima zajedničke monetarne politike. Nasuprot tome, relativno su slaba ostvarenja Hrvatske kada je riječ o kriteriju diversificiranosti gospodarstva. Osim povoljnih ostvarenja Hrvatske prema većini kriterija teorije optimalnih valutnih područja, postoje i drugi važni argumenti u prilog uvoðenju eura u Hrvatskoj. Naime, uvoðenjem eura nestao bi problem visoke euroiziranosti hrvatskoga gospodarstva, kao i niz drugih rizika i ograničenja koji proizlaze iz tog problema. Uvoðenjem eura Hrvatska bi stoga napravila važan korak u smjeru dugoročnog očuvanja makroekonomske stabilnosti.
The paper deals with assessing the EU from the new optimum currency area theory perspective. It focuses on measuring of the business cycle coherence applying the composite indicators of output gap ...similarity and synchronicity. Static as well as dynamic business cycle analysis is applied in the paper. In addition, the OCA endogeneity hypothesis is tested based on results of the business cycle coherence analysis. The results show high general coherence of the business cycles across the EU countries in terms of synchronicity measures. Detailed analysis of the output gap similarity indicates differences in the scale of cyclical deviations and impact of shocks in individual countries in the EU. Also the ability to cope with the crisis as a kind of external shock differs in the EU countries. The results do not provide a clear evidence of the OCA endogeneity hypothesis related to the Euro area member and non-member countries.
The idea of forming the European Monetary Union (EMU) derives from the fact that monetary integration has considerable economic advantages in lower transaction costs, greater price transparency and ...monetary stability. According to the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, it is very important for member states to achieve high level of convergence in order to exploit advantages of integrating and conducting a common policy. Maastricht convergence criteria imply that a country that enters the European Monetary Union (EMU) has a relatively low inflation, a stable currency, low budget deficits, relatively low interest rates and sustainable public debt. Before gaining the position of candidates for EMU, Bosnia and Herzegovina has to become a member of the EU and to achieve the criteria for membership related to the development of political, economic, administrative and judicial institutions. Since the Maastricht convergence criteria are more precise than other criteria, in the economic literature are often used as an indicators of the readiness of the candidate countries to access the E(M)U. In addition to consideration of theoretical and empirical knowledge about the monetary integration, the main goal of this paper is to, using the comparative analysis of actual economic performance of BiH and the region, provides us with knowledge and assessment of BiH stage of compliance with the Maastricht convergence criteria. The results show that a rational solution for BiH, after joining the EU, is based on gradual process of monetary integration, with stable monetary policy, effective management of public finances and careful management of public debt. The long-term goal of BiH lies in achieving real convergence through increased productivity and competitiveness.
Аccording to the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, as the basis of the European monetary integration, the fulfilling of convergence criteria for Member States is a main precondition for successful ...functioning of the monetary union. The differences, especially in the budget deficit and public debt are obvious signs of the different levels of growth, convergence and unequal respect of fiscal discipline within EMU. As the current crisis deepens, the imbalance triggers the question of EMU`s sustainability. The subject of this paper is to analyze the level of convergence in the EMU and the relation between economic positions of the states with the debt crisis in Europe. The main goal of this paper is to show the roots of instability in the eurozone and what impact it can have on the monetary integration of Europe. The results show that in the time of crisis and market uncertainty, problems of convergence and uneven economic growth of member states, become generators of eurozone instability, deepening the existing differences within the monetary union and the dilemmas of its existence.
The recent turmoil in the euro area once more forces the EU authorities to reconsider the future of further monetary integration. One of the most commonly used criteria for successful monetary ...integration in contemporary research is business cycle synchronization (BCS). Though BCS has been vastly described at country level, not as much attention has been paid to the degree of BSC at regional level. The topic is important for two main reasons. Firstly, determining the degree of BCS at the regional level can help in the assessment of monetary policy effectiveness on the country level, as well as give a point of reference for evaluation of prospective costs of participation in a monetary union. Secondly, there is a theoretical dispute within the optimum currency areas literature between the ‘European Commission’ and the ‘Krugman’ view that can be resolved to a large extent trough regional analysis. In order to assess BCS in the EU, Hodrick-Prescott, as well as Christiano and Fitzgerald filter to time series of real GDP for 24 countries, 82 NUTS 1, 242 NUTS 2 and 1264 NUTS 3 regions over the period between 1998 and 2010. The data was later used to create bilateral measures of BSC, which gave 276 observations on the country level, 3321 on NUTS 1, 29161 on NUTS 2 and 798216 on NUTS 3 level. The results of the analysis support the ‘European Commission’ view and show a very high degree of BSC within EU countries. The country level analysis also reveals that within the EU there is a group of countries that could form an effectively working monetary union based on the BCS criterion.
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