This study examines the influence of 9/11, the Iraq War, the economy, and the coalition-of-minorities on presidential approval of G. W. Bush across partisan subgroups and aggregate popularity. The ...analysis considers the effect of underlying partisan preferences on overall approval. A partisan divide occurs for war and the economy on Bush popularity. The events of 9/11 and the Iraq War affect Democratic opinions of Bush more than Republican opinions, whereas the economy impacts Republicans more than Democrats. An in-party/out-party rally effect occurs. Democrats show stronger rallies than Republicans for 9/11 and the Iraq War, but also faster and deeper popularity decay of the rallies. All economic and war-related effects significantly influence Independents and aggregate Bush popularity. The coalition-of-minorities pattern of declining presidential approval is caused by the 9/11 rally decay effect, the war casualties effect, and the slowing economy during Bush's second term in office. Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications, Inc.
For many years, scholars have attempted to justify the US Supreme Court's countermajoritarian judicial review authority. In recent years, several scholars have attempted instead to dissolve the ...countermajoritarian difficulty, claiming based on empirical evidence, that the Supreme Court's decisions are usually in sync with public opinion. We adopt a third and novel path in tackling this long-debated normative difficulty. We acknowledge that the Court, at times, acts in a countermajoritarian fashion. However, based on empirical evidence that demonstrates the enduring public support for the Court and the wide acceptance of its judicial review authority by all relevant players, we argue that the countermajoritarian difficulty is partly solved. Our solution is not based on a pre-commitment taken at the time the Constitution was created or on a mere fictitious act that is part of a thought experiment. Rather, it is based on an ongoing acceptance of, and support for, judicial review as a mechanism to constrain the public's immediate preferences.
The aim of this article is to further develop the argument that the interaction between radical right‐wing challengers and mainstream parties is bound to shape not only the trajectory of the latter, ...but also the future prospects of the former. Drawing on recent developments in Sweden, following the Sweden Democrats' (SD) appearance in local politics in 2002 and 2006, the article demonstrates that the SD has had an impact on the coalition practices of Swedish mainstream parties, responsible for the emergence of minority governments rather than grand coalitions. This trend suggests that the mere presence of a radical right party, although small and isolated, polarises the party system. The article supports the notion that the interaction between unequal competitors matters to the trajectory of the party system, and further concludes that the current responses of Swedish mainstream parties appear to improve, rather than to curb, the fortunes of the SD in subsequent elections. Finally, the article presents evidence indicating that the presence of the SD in local councils causes increased levels of political conflict. The results imply that the impact of the radical right is more immediate than suggested by previous research. The fact that the typically stable Swedish party system has been put under strain as a result of a seemingly minor challenge suggests that the radical right is a political force with which to be reckoned.
Ongoing reassessments in U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific have coincided with a major growth in Sino-Australian economic relations. The Australian-American alliance could be increasingly tested if ...U.S. policy planners are unsuccessful in generating more sensitive and proactive alliance security postures to ensure Australian support for key U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific.
When do governments pursue unpopular reform, such as cutting benefits? And when do they engage in not-unpopular reform, such as activation? Current approaches in welfare state research cannot ...systematically explain the cross-government variation in the two types of reform. Based on insights from prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, this article complements existing theories by arguing that losses and gains matter crucially for welfare state reform. A fs/QCA analysis of labour market reforms pursued by 23 Danish, German, Dutch and British Cabinets between 1979 and 2005 corroborates this hypothesis. Specifically, it shows that an improving political position (a gain) is the necessary condition for not-unpopular reform while for unpopular reform it is a deteriorating socio-economic situation (a loss). This finding helps account for the puzzling cross-government variation in different types of welfare state reform.
After twenty years in which right-wing extremism in Ukraine enjoyed little public support, the ultraright party Svoboda has made effective gains inside and outside electoral politics, which are ...likely to guarantee its entry into the Verkhovna Rada during the 2012 parliamentary elections.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, PRFLJ, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This article looks at the development of the relation between social divisions and voting in Germany in the Bundestag elections after German unification. Considering the data from German electoral ...studies since 1994, it examines how social class impinged on support for the Social Democrats and for the post-communist PDS/Left and how church attendance and religious denomination affects the tendency to vote for Christian Democrats. It seems that it is much too early to write off the electoral relevance of social cleavages. The 'core constituencies' of cleavage-based parties have anything but disappeared and still show marked differences in voting patterns. In addition there are striking east-west differences in the patterns of electoral behaviour, especially regarding support for the post-communists. There is some, though not overwhelming, evidence of change in the social patterns of voting. But these changes hardly justify the elimination of the concept of social cleavages from electoral research. Instead, the results are consistent with the view that the politicisation of social cleavages depends on parties' appropriate mobilisation strategies and policies.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Since taking office, United States President Barack Obama has attempted to refocus and revitalize the US war against terrorism. The centrepiece of this effort has been an increased emphasis on the ...war in Afghanistan, which he has characterized as the real frontline of the war on terror—as opposed to the 'distraction' of the Iraq war. After years of fighting under the Bush administration, Obama has had to 'sell' to the US public the renewed effort in Afghanistan and bordering Pakistan in order to maintain support for his policy. In speeches and other public pronouncements, Obama has drawn heavily on the idea of 'sacrifice' to justify the deepening of the commitment to the war, arguing that the costs of the war are necessary in order to keep the US safe from further terrorist attacks. This article explores this symbolic engagement with the sacrifices being made in the name of keeping the United States 'safe' from terrorism. It considers whether this approach resonates with public and elite opinion; it also considers the sustainability of underlying public support for the war and analyses how Obama has adapted his approach in order to fulfil his goal of drawing the US intervention to a close. While Obama appears to have judged well the price that the US public is willing to pay to defend against terrorism, it is argued that there are major risks involved in using the central principle of sacrifice when justifying the war. Obama has risked creating a 'sacrifice trap' whereby the more emphasis is placed on the sacrifices being made, the more necessary it becomes to demonstrate outcomes that make those sacrifices worthwhile. Obama's ultimate objective of withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan may yet be undermined, therefore, by the justifications he has given for the continued importance of the commitment.
We investigate the possible explanations for variations in aggregate levels of participation in large-scale political demonstrations. A simple public choice inspired model is applied to data derived ...from the annual May Day demonstrations of the Danish labor movement and socialist parties taking place in Copenhagen in the period 1980-2011. The most important explanatory variables are variations in the weather conditions and consumer confidence, while political and socio-economic conditions exhibit no robust effects. As such accidental or non-political factors may be much more important for collective political action than usually acknowledged and possibly make changes in aggregate levels of political support seem erratic and unpredictable.
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