In some rainfall-triggered landslides, intensity-duration thresholds can have limited prediction ability; therefore, investigation of alternative approaches that can be used for temporal prediction ...of rainfall-induced landslides is needed. This paper presents a methodology for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslides based on a lumped conceptual hydrological model. The production storage level during the rainfall event and the rainfall sum during the event are used for landslide prediction. Based on these two hydro-meteorological variables a threshold is defined that could be used for rainfall-induced landslides prediction as part of an early warning system. The presented methodology is tested using the meso-scale Selška Sora River catchment case study in western Slovenia where 20 active landslides from the Slovenian National Landslide Database are used to calibrate and evaluate the methodology performance. The results are compared to three different (i.e. local, regional, and global) intensity-duration thresholds. The results of the presented approach are superior in terms of several goodness-of-fit criteria compared to tested local and global ID thresholds. Because only daily rainfall, evapotranspiration, and discharge data are needed to calibrate the selected hydrological model and only daily rainfall and evapotranspiration to run the model, the presented approach could also be useful for data-scarce areas where detailed physically based landslide prediction models that require many data cannot be constructed. Moreover, we have also derived the probabilistic version of the proposed threshold for triggering of shallow landslides using copula functions.
A Mesoscale Convective System in North-Western Slovenia produced up to 350–400mm in 12h on 18 September, 2007. The region impacted by the storm shows significant differences in climatic and geologic ...properties at short distances. Owing to such variability, extreme flooding concentrated over the Selška Sora watershed at Železniki (103.3km2), outside the area which received the highest precipitation. Hydrometeorological analyses of the storm are based on accurate analysis of C-band weather-radar observations and data from a rain gauge network. Detailed surveys of high-water marks and channel/floodplain geometry, carried out two months after the flood, are used for hydrologic analyses of the Selška Sora flood. These include estimation of peak discharge at 21 sites. Unit peak discharges range from 5 to 7m3s−1km−2 in basins characterised by size up to approximately 25km2. Higher unit peak discharges (>10m3s−1km−2), estimated in a few smaller basins, are influenced by intense sediment transport. Observed rainfall, estimated peak discharges, and observer notes on timing of peak discharge are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. Examination of the rainfall distribution and flood response shows that the extent and the position of the karst terrain provided a major control on flood response in the region impacted by the storm. Use of the distributed hydrological model together with the post-flood survey observations is shown to provide an accurate description of the flood. Water balance and response time characteristics are examined for selected catchments, showing that event runoff coefficient ranged between 17% and 24% for different catchments. The quality of the peak discharge simulation at the 21 surveyed sites is substantially degraded when using spatially-uniform rainfall over the area covering all the surveyed sub-catchments, mainly due to rainfall volume errors introduced by using the spatially uniform value. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall spatial averaging at the scale of the sub-catchments generally has a very limited effect on runoff modelling, showing that rainfall spatial organisation was not able to overcome the catchment dampening effect for this flood.
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