•This work estimates air passengers worldwide scenarios loss due to Covid-19 pandemia.•The impact on aviation contraction on GDP and jobs worldwide and in EU27 is studied.•In 2020 up to 1.67% of the ...world GDP could have been lost due to aviation reduction.•Jobs loss in the aviation (direct & indirect) can go up 30 million of units in 2020.•Air traffic reduction dynamics is geographically correlated to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Due to the coronavirus global crisis, most countries have put in place restrictive measures in order to confine the pandemia and contain the number of casualties. Among the restrictive measures, air traffic suspension is certainly quite effective in reducing the mobility on the global scale in the short term but it also has high socio-economic impact on the long and short term. The main focus of this study is to collect and prepare data on air passengers traffic worldwide with the scope of analyze the impact of travel ban on the aviation sector. Based on historical data from January 2010 till October 2019, a forecasting model is implemented in order to set a reference baseline. Making use of airplane movements extracted from online flight tracking platforms and on-line booking systems, this study presents also a first assessment of recent changes in flight activity around the world as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. To study the effects of air travel ban on aviation and in turn its socio-economic, several scenarios are constructed based on past pandemic crisis and the observed flight volumes. It turns out that, according to these hypothetical scenarios, in the first Quarter of 2020 the impact of aviation losses could have negatively reduced World GDP by 0.02% to 0.12% according to the observed data and, in the worst case scenarios, at the end of 2020 the loss could be as high as 1.41–1.67% and job losses may reach the value of 25–30 millions. Focusing on EU27, the GDP loss may amount to 1.66–1.98% by the end of 2020 and the number of job losses from 4.2 to 5 millions in the worst case scenarios. Some countries will be more affected than others in the short run and most European airlines companies will suffer from the travel ban. We hope that these preliminary results may be of help for informed policy making design of exit strategies from this global crisis.
Understanding the characteristics and rules of air passenger travel behavior in an airport hinterland plays an important role in forecasting air passenger travel flows, improving airport service ...levels, and planning urban transportation. Taking Shijiazhuang Airport as an example, this paper studied the travel characteristics of air passengers in the airport hinterland using mobile phone signaling data. The results showed that: ① Air passengers were mainly distributed in Shijiazhuang City (about 70%), and the density of air passengers in urban area was significantly higher than that in other areas. ② The Shijiazhuang Airport had a distance decay effect, and the distance decay characteristics had obvious directivity. ③ The time spent at the airport for departing passengers was longer than that of arriving passengers. And the travel duration distribution characteristics of arriving and departing passengers presented a long-tail effect. The main reason for the distance and time decay characteristics would be that the car is the main collecting and distributing mode of Shijiazhuang Airport. Finally, we provide some recommendations to optimize the single collection and distribution mode of Shijiazhuang Airport.
•We analyze the travel behavior of air passengers in an airport hinterland with mobile phone signaling data.•Air passengers are mainly distributed in Shijiazhuang City and the density of air passengers in urban areas is significantly higher.•The distance decay characteristics of Shijiazhuang Airport have obvious directivity.•The transportation modes around Shijiazhuang Airport affect the airport's distance and time decay characteristics.
Abstract
Background
With more countries exiting lockdown, public health safety requires screening measures at international travel entry points that can prevent the reintroduction or importation of ...the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2. Here, we estimate the number of cases captured, quarantining days averted and secondary cases expected to occur with screening interventions.
Methods
To estimate active case exportation risk from 153 countries with recorded coronavirus disease-2019 cases and deaths, we created a simple data-driven framework to calculate the number of infectious and upcoming infectious individuals out of 100 000 000 potential travellers from each country, and assessed six importation risk reduction strategies; Strategy 1 (S1) has no screening on entry, S2 tests all travellers and isolates test-positives where those who test negative at 7 days are permitted entry, S3 the equivalent but for a 14 day period, S4 quarantines all travellers for 7 days where all are subsequently permitted entry, S5 the equivalent for 14 days and S6 the testing of all travellers and prevention of entry for those who test positive.
Results
The average reduction in case importation across countries relative to S1 is 90.2% for S2, 91.7% for S3, 55.4% for S4, 91.2% for S5 and 77.2% for S6. An average of 79.6% of infected travellers are infectious upon arrival. For the top 100 exporting countries, an 88.2% average reduction in secondary cases is expected through S2 with the 7-day isolation of test-positives, increasing to 92.1% for S3 for 14-day isolation. A substantially smaller reduction of 30.0% is expected for 7-day all traveller quarantining, increasing to 84.3% for 14-day all traveller quarantining.
Conclusions
The testing and isolation of test-positives should be implemented provided good testing practices are in place. If testing is not feasible, quarantining for a minimum of 14 days is recommended with strict adherence measures in place.
This study extends the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model with an additional construct (i.e., air passenger's perception toward pre-flight safety communication) in the context of the commercial ...airline industry. Specifically, this study investigates the relationship among air passengers' perceptions of pre-flight safety communication, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and behavioral intentions. A preliminary study was conducted by soliciting responses from 333 college students in Taiwan. Additional efforts were made to solicit survey participation from tourists who have travelled by air and are more likely to use air travel than a pure student sample. Specifically, surveys were administered to a popular online consumer panel in Taiwan, and a total number of 630 valid survey responses were returned. Empirical results based on the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique indicated that air passengers' perceptions of pre-flight safety communication consist of three sub-dimensions (i.e., regulation and safety equipment, instructions for equipment, general information). Meanwhile, air passengers' perceptions of pre-flight safety communication had a positive and significant influence on both air passengers' attitudes and perceived behavioral control which, in turn, influenced their intentions to pay attention to the safety briefing video. Interestingly, air passengers' perceptions of pre-flight safety communication effectiveness do not have a significant effect on air passenger's intention to pay attention to the briefing videos. In addition, the subjective norm has a positive and significant impact on air passengers' intention of receiving the pre-flight safety video briefing. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed in this study.
•This study extends the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model with an additional construct (i.e., air passenger's perception of cabin safety knowledge) in the context of air travel safety.•Empirical results indicated that air passenger's perception of cabin safety knowledge consists of three sub-dimensions (regulation and safety equipment, instructions for equipment, general information).•Air passengers' perception of cabin safety knowledge had a positive significant influence on both air passengers' attitude and perceived behavioral control which, in turn, influenced air passengers' intention of receiving the briefing.•A full mediating effect (cabin safety knowledge .→ attitude → intention) and a partial mediating effect (cabin safety knowledge → perceived behavioral control → intention) were found in this study.
Aviation plays a crucial role for economic development and social welfare, but at the same time it also significantly contributes to climate change. Therefore, if the industry wants to follow the ...same growth path as it has in the past, it will need to mitigate its environmental impacts more seriously or it may otherwise face regulatory restrictions. The current literature has discussed five mitigation strategies. These are technological changes, market-based changes, operational changes, regulatory changes and behavioural changes. While several authors have regarded behavioural changes as the measure with the greatest mitigation potential, it is also the measure that has received far less attention in the literature. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to investigate the potential of behavioural change as an instrument to mitigate the environmental impacts of aviation. The study is conducted in the form of a literature review. We first discuss issues related to the consumer’s environmentally responsible self-concept that often conflicts with the environmental impacts of flying, the so-called flying dilemma. We then provide an overview of aviation’s environmental impacts and present the five mitigation strategies in greater detail. After that we have a closer look at the concept of behavioural change. We then discuss separately measures of behavioural change from the perspective of the aviation industry and the air passengers. While the literature on the aviation industry presents many opportunities in which airlines can engage in behavioural change, the literature on air passengers is rather limited and focuses mainly on carbon offset. We instead have chosen another stream of literature that focuses on the novel idea of air passengers engaging in behavioural change by actively selecting airlines which are more environmentally friendly. We conclude this literature review with a discussion of how to bring green offer and demand together by drawing the conclusion that, in order to be able to mitigate the climate change impacts of aviation through behavioural change, an instrument to connect both ends would be needed.
Nowadays, the air passenger traffic has been increasing, becoming an excellent, viable and reachable option for many people. This causes that airports may require an efficient organization to serve ...both, the companies that use the facilities and the passengers. In addition, it is important to consider that the amount of information that is generated may not be easy to analyse, sometimes because the managers don´t know all the information that they have, or they don´t know how much this information can help the business or what they can do with all these data. Therefore, in this work, we perform an analysis of the information obtained from Monterrey´s airport (domestic and international passengers), using the methodology of Complex Networks Analysis. Also, with the results obtained, we will seek to put forward improvements in the service of this type of facilities, and the infrastructure.
A mandatory 14-day ‘centralized medical quarantine’ has been instituted in Shanghai, China, to prevent secondary transmission of imported COVID-19. Here, we summarize our experiences and describe the ...work flow and disinfection measures in our quarantine centre.
This paper analyses the effect of the standard gravity model variables and of various multinational agreements—namely the Euro, the European Union (EU), the Schengen Agreement and other regional ...trade agreements (RTAs)—on the volume of air cargo flows. To compare the impacts, the data set created for this analysis contains intra‐ and extra‐European air cargo flows as well as data on air passenger and total trade flows. The results suggest that the impact of the analysed multinational agreements on air cargo flows diverges completely from their impact on total trade flows—however, the effects on air cargo flows are more similar to the effects on air passenger flows. Whereas the Euro and the Schengen Agreement affect air cargo volumes positively, EU membership and other RTAs do not significantly affect trade by air. Methodology‐wise, different dynamic structural gravity models are formulated and estimated with Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML). Including intranational flows and controlling for multilateral resistance, endogeneity and globalisation effects reverses the impact of some of the policy variables compared with an estimate based on a simple structural gravity model.
In order to solve the problem of passenger risk classification, an assessment model for air passenger risk classification based on the analytic hierarchy process and improved fuzzy comprehensive ...evaluation method is constructed. The existing index systems are improved by the comprehensive method. The index system of passenger risk assessment is established, which includes 23 indexes from five aspects: basic background, personal status, economic situation, personal conduct and civil aviation travel. In addition, the weight of each index is determined by the analytic hierarchy process. An improved method of determining fuzzy relation matrixes is proposed. The single factor evaluation vectors of discrete indexes can be determined according to the results of probability statistics, and the single factor evaluation vectors of continuous indexes are calculated by fitting function. Then the assessment model for passenger risk classification based on the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established. According to the characteristic analysis of civil aviation passengers and terrorists, typical passenger samples of high, medium and low risk are set to verify the model. The results show that the evaluation results of typical passenger samples are consistent with the basic assumptions. The model is suitable for risk classification assessment of air passengers. Moreover, the tedious evaluation process is reduced compared with the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
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