•No previous studies have been conducted in Sri Lanka to assess the climate suitability for tea.•The comparison of the current and future distributions of suitable tea growing areas revealed a ...decline of approximately 10.5%, 17% and 8% in the total area for “optimal,” “medium,” and “marginal” suitability respectively.•Climate would have a negative effect on the suitability habitats of tea in Sri Lanka by 2050 and 2070 under MIROC5 and CCSM4.•Precipitation seasonality would be the most influential climatic predictor for tea in future.
Knowledge of potential distributions and habitat preferences of tea (Camellia sinensis) under current and future climate conditions are vital for policy makers and stakeholders to develop suitable adaptation measures to mitigate against any detrimental effects of climate change. Without broad awareness of climate suitability and potential changes in distributions of tea growing areas, efforts of expanding the productivity of tea would remain ineffective. This study aimed to model the climate suitability of tea in Sri Lanka in response to the current and future climate change scenarios using the correlative habitat suitability model MaxEnt. Three representative concentration pathways were used under MIROC5 and CCSM4 global climate models for the year 2050 and 2070. The MaxEnt model projected current habitat suitability for tea based on existing datasets with a mean AUC of 0.92. The TSS value with a mean 0.847 ± 0.007 signifies high accuracy of predicting suitability habitats while the maximum kappa value (k) of the current and future models was around 0.454, indicating the overall performance of the model was good. In relation to the current time, areas of 6090 km2 (9.3%), 5769 km2(8.8%), and 5086 km2 were projected as potential areas of having optimal, medium, and marginal climate suitability for tea, respectively. Results show that most of the optimal and medium suitability areas in the low elevation areas would be lost to a greater extent in comparison to the high elevation areas for all tested RCPs by 2050 and 2070 under both GCMs of MIROC5 and CCSM4. The comparison of the current and future distributions of suitable tea growing areas revealed a decline of approximately 10.5%, 17% and 8% in total 'optimal', 'medium', and 'marginal' suitability areas respectively, implying that climate would have a negative effect on the habitat suitability of tea in Sri Lanka by 2050 and 2070.
Climate is an important factor that affects livability, but the climate comfort model used for low altitudes is not applicable to high altitudes, and further study on climate suitability in ...high-altitude areas is needed. In response to the absence of high-altitude characteristics in the current climate comfort assessment methods, this study adds oxygen content and solar radiation as plateau characteristic indicators. We use the consulting graded method (CGM), least squares method (LSM) and questionnaire survey method (QSM) to obtain comprehensive weights for oxygen content, solar radiation and comfort index to build the Climate Suitability Index of Plateau (CSIP) and assess climate suitability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The CSIP decreases obviously as elevation increases from southeast to northwest on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which means that the climate becomes increasingly unsuitable from southeast to northwest. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is divided into four regions—“very unsuitable” (83.8 × 104 km2, 32.4%), “unsuitable” (81.5 × 104 km2, 31.6%), “suitable” (67.9 × 104 km2, 26.3%), and “very suitable” (24.9 × 104 km2, 9.6%)—by the natural break method according to the CSIP. According to the different degrees of response of population density to CSIP, we plot the climate suitability line of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to provide basic theoretical support for regional planning in the Qinghai-Tibet region. The CSIP developed in this study provides a new climate suitability assessment method for high-altitude regions and a method for planning human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from a climate-focused perspective.
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•Climate suitability is assessed from the perspectives of residents, experts and population distribution.•The Climate Suitability Index of Plateau (CSIP) measure is built for high altitude areas.•The climate suitability line is plotted to guide spatial planning of national land.
•Attalea pindobassu (Babaçu) is a native palm of Brazil's Caatinga with socioeconomic value.•Ecological Niche Modeling was done to assess climate suitability in the current and future ...scenarios.•Recent vegetation suppression cover in the areas of climatic suitability.•A. pindobassu will lose areas of suitability in future scenarios compared to the current.•Protected areas will be insufficient to safeguard A. pindobassu in current and future scenario.
Babaçu (Attalea pindobassu Bondar) is a native palm of Brazil's Caatinga Domain. The species has significant socioeconomic value to local communities in the Chapada Diamantina, Northeast Brazil, who employ it for cosmetic, food, and handicraft purposes. We investigated the suitability of habitats of babaçu using Ecological Niche Modeling under current and future climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic), to understand the effects of land use and climate change on the potential distribution of A. pindobassu, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) in long-term conservation of the species. The current distribution model predicted climate suitability of 68,754 km², consisting of 8.04% of the Caatinga area. Our results demonstrate a recent suppression of vegetation cover in the areas of climatic suitability. According to the models designed for SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the suitability areas are being reduced over the years when compared to the current model: (i) 2040 reduction of 23.94%; (ii) 2060 reduction of 50.7%; (iii) 2080 reduction of 64.73%; (iv) 2100 reduction of 75.21%. For SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the generated models showed a more accentuated reduction in all evaluated periods: (i) 2040 reduction of 37.27%; (ii) 2060 reduction of 60.46%; (iii) 2080 and 2100 reduction of 100%, indicating probable extinction of the species. A low percentage of climate suitability areas was observed within the PAs, in the current scenario and in the future scenarios. The creation of germplasm banks for ex situ conservation, creation and expansion of PAs, and monitoring of natural populations is crucial to ensure the sustainability of this palm's resources for local communities into the future.
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•Classification map of climate suitability of potato distribution is given by species distribution modeling.•Climate suitable areas of potato show a trend of eastward expansion and ...northward shift.•Consistency between major planting areas and high climate suitability areas exhibits a decreasing trend.•Unsuitable climate conditions pose a threat to potato production in parts of southern China.
A scientific description of climate suitability of crop distribution is of great significance to mitigate negative effects of climate change and ensure food security. We investigated for the first time the potential impact of climate change on potato distribution at a national scale. The interdecadal change of potato distribution in China in response to the climate change from 1961 to 2017 was estimated using the MaxEnt model. The annual precipitation, annual average minimum temperature, average temperature in the coldest month, and sunshine duration were selected to model the climate suitability of potato distribution. The climate optimum areas exhibited a shrinking trend, with proportion of acreage falling from 5.12 % in the 1960s to 3.49 % in the 2010s. Climate suitable areas showed the tendency to expand to the east and shrink to the north. As an illustration, the climate suitability in eastern part of North-central Region was increased, but was decreased in southern part of Southwest Region. The proportions of consistency between major planting areas and high climate suitability areas were decreased from 93.36 % in the 1980s to 79.62 % in the 2010s. The increase of potato acreage in low climate suitable areas such as Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Region, Southeast Region, and southern part of Southwest Region might bring an adverse effect to potato production. Given that the climate optimum areas were found in the marginal regions of mid-western Xinjiang province in the past 60 years, it might be potential areas for potato introduction. The evaluation of climate suitability could provide a theoretical reference for planting layout of potato, which was conducive to reducing the potential risk of climate change on potato production and developing a reasonable regionalization of climate suitability.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the climate suitability map of pistachio planting in the northwestern provinces of the country. Accordingly, the climate suitability map of ...pistachio planting was prepared based on long-term meteorological data using weighted overlap modeling in GIS environment. The accuracy of the mentioned map was evaluated by comparing it with the pistachio orchards map that located in this area using the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). The results showed that 33, 33.4, 60 and 12.4% of the study area in East and West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, and Ardabil provinces are suitable for pistachio cultivation respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for the mentioned provinces were calculated as 0.9, 0.8, 0.9, and 0.62, respectively, which in general indicates the high accuracy of the results. In Ardabil province, insufficient attention to the limitation of high relative humidity in different stages of pollination, and fruit growth in the construction of pistachio orchards has caused a low area AUC. Citing the results of the climate suitability of pistachio cultivation map can be a good guide for site selection of new orchards and therefore, the reduction of crop yield due to climatic hazards will be minimized.
•Assessing impacts of climate change on wheat production in climate-suitable area.•Quantifying projected uncertainty of wheat production under future climate change.•SDM dominated projected ...uncertainty of wheat production in climate-suitable area.•CM was more certain when projecting future wheat production in climate-suitable area.
Climate change poses a great challenge to global food security. Recently the combination of crop models (CMs), global climate models (GCMs), and species distribution models (SDMs) has been applied to assess the impacts of climate change on crop production with consideration of changes of crop climate-suitable regions. However, little is known about the uncertainty sources in the wheat production projections with consideration of crop climatic suitability under future climate. In this study, an integration method based on multiple CMs, SDMs, and GCMs was adopted to assess the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in the Loess Plateau of China. A comprehensive analysis of different uncertainty sources (i.e. CM, GCM, SDM, Emission Scenario or Scen, and their interactions) was conducted through the ANOVA (Analysis of variance) method. Based on the projections of CM ensemble and ensemble-SDMs driven by 27 GCMs, multi-model mean winter wheat production would increase by 14.6% and 19.7% in 2041–2060 and 4.9% and 3.5% in 2081–2100 under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. We found that the changes in climate-suitable areas of winter wheat caused larger changes in winter wheat production than the changes of per unit yield. SDM was the largest uncertainty contributor among the four main factors of CM, GCM, SDM, and Scen in the projections of winter wheat production under future climate in the Loess Plateau, accounting for about 20.3% of total uncertainty. At the same time, CM was the lowest uncertainty contributor and accounted for only about 3.0% of total uncertainty. Thus, CM was proved more certain in future projections of winter wheat production when considering the changes of crop climate-suitable areas. The efforts in this study could help to rationally integrate the crop modeling, species distribution modeling, and climate models on the projections of global wheat production under future global climate change.
Recreation services are part of “Experiences” in nonmaterial nature's contribution to people (NCP). It is one of the activities most closely linked to natural landscapes and human well-being. Current ...research methods are mostly point-based, lacking a systematic evaluation at the regional level that integrates climate conditions and recreational resources. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a unique environment with traditional culture. However, limited ecological capacity and poor adaptation to the plateau climate can affect the development of recreation services. This research develops an evaluation framework for recreation services (RS) based on landscape aesthetic quality (LAQ), climate suitability (CS) and recreation utilisation (RU). The results showed that most of QTP had a low (27 %) and average (30 %) LAQ. Regarding CS, a very large part of the studied area had a very low (23 %) and low (35 %) values. RU in QTP had a low (38 %) and average (34 %) values. Finally, RS in most QTP area was low (32 %) and average (28 %). The correlations between the three indices (LAQ, CS and RU) and the final model were high and significant (>0.70). Despite the significance, the correlations observed among the indicators were low (<0.45). LAQ and CS were related to the vegetation and temperature zone, and cities with high levels of urbanisation have a high recreation utilisation. From the southeast to the northwest of the QTP, the altitude increases and the level of recreation services decreases. The dominant factor of the northeastern urban landscape is recreation utilisation, and the climate suitability is the southeast tibetan forest landscape. The framework developed a theoretical foundation for recreation planning and management.
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•Recreation services were assessed in QTP using LAQ, RU and CS.•Qinghai-Tibet Plateau LAQ and CS were related to vegetation and temperature zone.•Recreation utilisation was related to high levels of urbanisation.•In the northeastern urban landscape is, the dominant factor was the RU.•In the southeast tibetan forest landscape, the dominant factor was the CS.
Improving management practices of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) cultivation especially under future climate change requires knowledge of yield gaps and their determining factors. In this study, we ...assessed yield gaps and their determining factors through multiple regression modelling in smallholder cocoa agroforestry systems in Ghana along a climatic gradient. The studied zones referred to as dry, mid and wet with annual rainfall of 1200, 1200–1400 and 1400–2000 mm respectively, represent established “climate suitability zones” across the cocoa belt of West Africa, where 70% of the global cocoa is produced. Data was collected from 150 cocoa farmers and their plantation across the zones. Information about socioeconomic and management characteristics was collected through interviews. In each plantation, soil characteristics and cocoa plantation properties were recorded. Yield data for three consecutive years (2012/13–2014/15) and soil properties (0–30 cm layer) were analysed. Yield gap was estimated as the difference between attainable yield (AY) and actual farmers yield (FY) in each zone based on the approach of maximum farmer yields determined from survey. Average farmer and attainable yield of 211 and 645 kg ha−1 year−1 in the dry, 477 and 1174 kg ha−1 year−1 in the mid and 999 and 2125 kg ha−1 year−1 in the wet zone were recorded, respectively. Relative yield gaps were significantly larger in the dry (67%) than the wet zone (53%). In the dry zone with significantly older farmers (average age of 64), increasing labour cost (use of hired labour) significantly reduced yield gap. Contrary, increasing labour cost significantly increased yield gap in the mid zone where plantations were significantly larger. Yield gap increased significantly with increasing farmer age (54 years) in the mid zone but decreased significantly with farmer age (47 years) in the wet zone. Significant positive relationship between plantation size and yield gap was observed in both mid and wet zones. Soil available phosphorous (P) and fungicide use significantly reduced yield gap in the dry and mid zones. Finally, quantity of pesticide, proportion of hybrid cocoa plants and number of trainings received by farmers significantly reduced yield gap in the wet zone. In the dry zone, closing the yield gap against the climate risk might be unlikely. Transformation into more drought resistant systems such as cashew might be promising. However, in the mid and wet zones, labour availability for effective management of large plantations might be the major barrier for intensification, which needs to be addressed by intervention strategies.
•Yield gaps and determining factors assessed through multiple regression modelling.•Variations in yield gaps exist among the different cocoa climate suitability zones.•High relative yield gap in dry zone due to low intensification and climatic risk.•Labour and available P significantly determined yield gap in the dry and mid zones.•Access to trainings and use of hybrid seeds reduced yield gaps in the wet zone.
•Species distribution models are useful to predict the distribution of invasive alien species.•The suitable habitat of six invasive alien plants can expand with climate change.•Invasive species can ...move to upper elevations with future climate change.
The biological invasions have been increasing at multiple spatial scales and the management of invasive alien species is becoming more challenging due to confounding effects of climate change on the distribution of those species. Identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive alien species and their range under future climate change scenarios are essential for long-term management planning of these species. Using occurrence data of six of the most problematic invasive alien plants (IAPs) of Nepal (Ageratum houstonianum Mill., Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth, and Parthenium hysterophorus L.), we have predicted their climatically suitable areas across the country under the current and two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070). We have developed an ensemble of eight different species distribution modelling approaches to predict the location of climatically suitable areas. Under the current climatic condition, P. hysterophorus had the highest suitable area (18% of the total country’s area) while it was the lowest for M. micrantha (12%). A predicted increase in the currently suitable areas ranges from 3% (M. micrantha) to 70% (A. houstonianum) with the mean value for all six species being 29% under the future climate change scenario for 2050. For four species (A. houstonianum, C. odorata, H. suaveolens and L. camara), additional areas at elevations higher than the current distribution will provide suitable habitat under the projected future climate. In conclusion, all six IAPs assessed are likely to invade additional areas in future due to climate change and these scenarios need to be considered while planning for IAPs management as well as climate change adaptation.
Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. ...In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%–18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long‐established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14–55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.
Protected areas are championed as refugia for native biodiversity and habitats, but we do not know how effective they are in shielding native taxa from biological invasions under projected climate change.
Here, we found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by 100 of the worst terrestrial, freshwater, and marine invaders, with long‐established areas showing the lowest richness of invaders (A).
This situation may change in the future, as models anticipate a shift in species distribution toward the north and east of Europe in response to climate change (B).
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