Abstract
The magnitude of recent climatic changes has no historical precedent and impacts biodiversity. Climatic changes may displace suitable habitats (areas with suitable climates), leading to ...global biodiversity decline. Primates are among the most affected groups. Most primates depend on forests and contribute to their maintenance. We evaluated the potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of
Sapajus xanthosternos
, a critically endangered primate whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes. We evaluated changes between baseline (1970–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates using multivariate analysis. Then, we compared current and future (2100) climatic suitability projections for the species. The climatic changes predicted throughout the
S. xanthosternos
range differed mostly longitudinally, with higher temperature increases in the west and higher precipitation reductions in the east. Climatic suitability for
S. xanthosternos
is predicted to decline in the future. Areas with highest current climatic suitability occur as a narrow strip in the eastern part of the geographic range throughout the latitudinal range. In the future, areas with highest values are projected to be located as an even narrower strip in the eastern part of the geographical range. A small portion of forest remnants larger than 150 ha located in the east has larger current and future suitability values. At this large scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the climate effects reinforce the importance of maintenance of current populations in different areas of the range. The possibility that phenotypic plasticity helps primates cope with reduced climatic suitability may be mediated by habitat availability, quality, and connectivity.
Highlights
We evaluated the potential effects of climate changes on the climatic suitability of
Sapajus xanthosternos
, a critically endangered primate species whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes.
Predicted climate changes in the species' range are heterogeneous, and suitability is predicted to decrease in the future. Only a few forest remnants east of the species' range have high current and future suitability values.
The maintenance of climatically suitable habitats is essential for this species' temporal persistence, and the gradual dispersal may provide populations with physiological and cultural amplitude that can be important in climatic change scenarios.
Maize production on the North China Plain (NCP) is critical to food security in China; however, currently, it is affected by climate change. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of the ...climate suitability for maize on the NCP in the present and future may help sustainably use climate‐related resources to ensure food security in China. In this study, 30 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and a statistical downscaling model (NWAI‐WG) were used to project meteorological data in 2021–2100 under representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for 23 national climatic stations on the NCP. Based on agricultural climate suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, the suitability of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation on summer maize were analysed. The results showed that temperature suitability is decreasing for 2021–2100, especially during the stages from jointing to maturity; temperature suitability is the lowest in the southwest and increases to the northeast under both scenarios. Compared to 1996–2015, the precipitation suitability in 2021–2100 increases greatly under both scenarios, especially in the central part under RCP4.5 and in the north part under RCP8.5. Solar radiation suitability shows a decreasing trend for 1996–2015, however, an increasing trend for 2021–2100 under both scenarios. At spatial scale, the solar suitability increases from southwest to northeast. The integrated climate suitability under RCP4.5 in 2021–2100 is averaged approximately 0.8 and varies slightly, indicating climate change may do small effect on maize growth, though the high values shifting from the central part in 2021–2040 to the northern part in 2081–2100; however, under RCP8.5, the integrated climate suitability shows a downward trend, indicating that climate change will make many regions less suitable for maize growth. These results could provide basic information for agriculture to adapt to climate change and ensure food security for China.
North China Plain (NCP) is one of the main maize production regions in China, and currently subjected to climate change. To understand the climate change's effects on maize growth and improve the climatic resource use efficiency, the climate suitability for maize on the NCP is evaluated. Generally, the climatic suitability increased from present to 2100 and increased from South to North as shown in the image, indicating an improving situation for maize production but adaption needed in South part.
Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to ...the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process models that simulate climate suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks have advanced our understanding of beetle population dynamics; however, there are few studies that have assessed their accuracy across multiple outbreaks or at larger spatial scales. This study used the observed number of trees killed by mountain pine beetles per square kilometer in Oregon and Washington, USA, over the past three decades to quantify and assess the influence of climate and weather variables on beetle activity over longer time periods and larger scales than previously studied. Influences of temperature and precipitation in addition to process model output variables were assessed at annual and climatological time scales. The statistical analysis showed that new attacks are more likely to occur at locations with climatological mean August temperatures >15°C. After controlling for beetle pressure, the variables with the largest effect on the odds of an outbreak exceeding a certain size were minimum winter temperature (positive relationship) and drought conditions in current and previous years. Precipitation levels in the year prior to the outbreak had a positive effect, possibly an indication of the influence of this driver on brood size. Two-year cumulative precipitation had a negative effect, a possible indication of the influence of drought on tree stress. Among the process model variables, cold tolerance was the strongest indicator of an outbreak increasing to epidemic size. A weather suitability index developed from the regression analysis indicated a 2.5× increase in the odds of outbreak at locations with highly suitable weather vs. locations with low suitability. The models were useful for estimating expected amounts of damage (total area with outbreaks) and for quantifying the contribution of climate to total damage. Overall, the results confirm the importance of climate and weather on the spatial expansion of bark beetle outbreaks over time.
Reintroduction and rewilding initiatives are key strategies to reverse human impacts on ecosystems and re‐establish natural processes. However, rewilding may involve complex management scenarios, ...because many expanding species can have economic impacts and cause human–wildlife conflicts. Conflicts can be particularly challenging when carnivores, large herbivores and ecosystem engineers are involved. The Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) is a key ecosystem engineer that was once present in a large part of the Palearctic, but in Medieval times underwent a severe decline due to the joint effects of habitat loss and hunting. Subsequent legal protection and reintroductions triggered the recovery of the species through most of its original range. Eurasian beavers recently started the recolonization of Italy, because of the joint effects of natural dispersal (from Austria to northern Italy) and illegal reintroductions (central Italy). The lack of data on the most likely colonization routes hampers appropriate management of this species. Here, we identified the areas where beaver populations are most likely to arrive in the near future within Europe, with a specific focus on Italy. First, we developed spatially cross‐validated species distribution models to identify the areas with the highest suitability for the Eurasian beaver in Europe. Second, we used connectivity modelling to assess the possible expansion routes of this species in Italy. Large areas of Europe are suitable for the beaver and may soon be colonized. The connectivity model showed a high potential for expansion from central Italy to surrounding areas, while the high isolation of northern Italy populations suggests a slower expansion. Our results can help environmental managers to understand where to focus both the future monitoring of beaver populations and actions aimed at preventing and mitigating possible human–wildlife conflicts that could arise from the expansion of an environmental engineer such as the beaver.
The Eurasian beaver is a key ecosystem engineer which recently started the recolonization of Italy, because of the joint effects of natural dispersal and illegal reintroductions. Using species distribution models and connectivity models, here we identified the areas where beaver populations are most likely to arrive in the near future within Europe, with a specific focus on Italy. Reintroduction and rewilding initiatives may involve complex management scenarios when an environmental engineer such as the beaver is involved, hence, we also highlight areas where human–beaver conflict can potentially arise due to the re‐expansion of this species.
Solid wood packaging material (WPM) is widely recognized as a high-risk pathway for transport and potential introduction of wood-boring insects, including longhorned beetles in the family ...Cerambycidae. These beetles also are occasionally imported in finished wood products, such as furniture and decorative items. A targeted effort to identify wood borers intercepted as larvae in WPM at U.S. ports between 2012 and 2018 revealed that one of the most frequently intercepted species was Trichoferus campestris (Faldermann), a cerambycid native to Asia. Trichoferus campestris is a pest of quarantine concern in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The establishment risk of this beetle in the United States is high because of its frequent introduction through multiple pathways and its potential to inhabit natural and urban forests as well as agricultural systems. In this study, we compiled port interception and detection data to examine risk based on historical introductions and pathways. We tested whether the intended destination of cargo intercepted with T. campestris-infested WPM can be used as a predictor of inland introductions, assuming that individuals of T. campestris are likely to be moved through established trade routes between export–import partners. We also developed maps to predict likely areas of introduction and establishment in the United States based on pathway analysis and climate suitability data. The maps will enable informed prioritization of resources in pest surveillance, and may serve as models for other wood borers identified in the WPM and wood products pathway.
Aim
Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden‐winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes ...with the Blue‐winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA.
Location
North America.
Methods
We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate.
Results
GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios.
Main Conclusions
Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.
Tourism is a highly climate-sensitive sector, and the suitability of climate and weather can be a central motivation for travel. Through the tourism climate index (TCI), this study uses daily data ...from the period of 1980 to 2014 to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of climatic conditions in Xinjiang of China with regard to its climatic attractiveness for general tourism. The analytical results indicate that the climatic conditions of the most suitable months for tourism in Xinjiang are April, May, September, and October. The best climatic condition (TCI > 80) for tourism activities is found in September in most parts of Xinjiang, except for central Tianshan and Turpan Basins. The climate is not attractive for tourism in Xinjiang during the winter months. The annual average number of climatically suitable days (TCI > 70) are the highest in northwestern Aksu, most parts of Kashgar, and western Hotan. Most parts of northern Xinjiang are favorable for summer travel, with high TCI scores and a high average number of climatically suitable days. By contrast, tourist areas in southern and eastern Xinjiang have favorable climatic conditions during Spring and Autumn. These results can provide useful information to both tourists and the tourism industry.
More than 460 cases of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in endangered San Joaquin kit foxes (SJKF; Vulpes macrotis mutica) have been reported in Bakersfield, California, US. Because SJKF are a ...den-obligate species, their dens have been proposed as a route of transmission. We determined whether SJKF den temperatures and humidities could support mite off-host survival based on previously published estimates of off-host mite survival times. We monitored SJKF dens for 6 d in summer and winter of 2017 and 2018 using temperature- and humidity-sensing data loggers placed within the dens. Motion-triggered cameras monitored animal use of and entrances into the dens. Linear regression models were fitted to the published mite survival data to predict estimated mite survival time (EMST) in SJKF dens based on observed mean temperature and humidity of the den. Den covariates including irrigation, type of den, and season were then fitted to a mixed effects linear model to predict EMST. The average EMST across various habitats in Bakersfield was 4.8 d; the longest EMST was 7.1 d for dens in habitats with irrigated grass in the winter. Den climatic conditions in Bakersfield may support off-host mite survival through a timeframe adequate for revisitation by another fox. The finding that irrigation may enhance EMST suggested that risk to foxes varied with den type and that mitigation strategies may need to vary with den types.
Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) ...on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future.
•Method developed to evaluate climate suitability for various crops and issues.•Method based on agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological phases.•Demonstration with respect to ...ecophysiological, quality, or management criteria.•Method to explore agricultural potential over a wide range of climatic conditions.•Indicator-based method to answer stakeholders issues.
The cultivation of crops in a given area is highly dependent of climatic conditions. Assessment of how the climate is favorable is highly useful for planners, land managers, farmers and plant breeders who can propose and apply adaptation strategies to improve agricultural potentialities. The aim of this study was to develop an assessment method for crop-climate suitability that was generic enough to be applied to a wide range of issues and crops. The method proposed is based on agroclimatic indicators that are calculated over phenological periods (ecoclimatic indicators). These indicators are highly relevant since they provide accurate information about the effect of climate on particular plant processes and cultural practices that take place during specific phenological periods. Three case studies were performed in order to illustrate the potentialities of the method. They concern annual (maize and wheat) and perennial (grape) crops and focus on the study of climate suitability in terms of the following criteria: ecophysiological, days available to carry out cultural practices, and harvest quality. The analysis of the results revealed both the advantages and limitations of the method. The method is general and flexible enough to be applied to a wide range of issues even if an expert assessment is initially needed to build the analysis framework. The limited number of input data makes it possible to use it to explore future possibilities for agriculture in many areas. The access to intermediate information through elementary ecoclimatic indicators allows users to propose targeted adaptations when climate suitability is not satisfactory.
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