We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). ...Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Background
To assess the case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in mainland China, stratified by region and clinical category, and estimate key time-to-event intervals.
Methods
We collected ...individual information and aggregated data on COVID-19 cases from publicly available official sources from 29 December 2019 to 17 April 2020. We accounted for right-censoring to estimate the CFR and explored the risk factors for mortality. We fitted Weibull, gamma, and log-normal distributions to time-to-event data using maximum-likelihood estimation.
Results
We analyzed 82 719 laboratory-confirmed cases reported in mainland China, including 4632 deaths and 77 029 discharges. The estimated CFR was 5.65% (95% confidence interval CI, 5.50–5.81%) nationally, with the highest estimate in Wuhan (7.71%) and lowest in provinces outside Hubei (0.86%). The fatality risk among critical patients was 3.6 times that of all patients and 0.8–10.3-fold higher than that of mild-to-severe patients. Older age (odds ratio OR, 1.14 per year; 95% CI, 1.11–1.16) and being male (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.10–3.04) were risk factors for mortality. The times from symptom onset to first healthcare consultation, to laboratory confirmation, and to hospitalization were consistently longer for deceased patients than for those who recovered.
Conclusions
Our CFR estimates based on laboratory-confirmed cases ascertained in mainland China suggest that COVID-19 is more severe than the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in hospitalized patients, particularly in Wuhan. Our study provides a comprehensive picture of the severity of the first wave of the pandemic in China. Our estimates can help inform models and the global response to COVID-19.
Asymptomatic infection occurs for numerous respiratory viral diseases, including influenza and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We seek to clarify confusion in 3 areas: age-specific risks of ...transmission and/or disease; various definitions for the COVID-19 "mortality rate," each useful for specific purposes; and implications for student return strategies from preschool through university settings.
Group B Streptococcus (GBS) remains a leading cause of neonatal sepsis in high-income contexts, despite declines due to intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP). Recent evidence suggests higher ...incidence in Africa, where IAP is rare. We investigated the global incidence of infant invasive GBS disease and the associated serotypes, updating previous estimates.
We conducted systematic literature reviews (PubMed/Medline, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature LILACS, World Health Organization Library Information System WHOLIS, and Scopus) and sought unpublished data regarding invasive GBS disease in infants aged 0-89 days. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses of incidence, case fatality risk (CFR), and serotype prevalence.
We identified 135 studies with data on incidence (n = 90), CFR (n = 64), or serotype (n = 45). The pooled incidence of invasive GBS disease in infants was 0.49 per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval CI, .43-.56), and was highest in Africa (1.12) and lowest in Asia (0.30). Early-onset disease incidence was 0.41 (95% CI, .36-.47); late-onset disease incidence was 0.26 (95% CI, .21-.30). CFR was 8.4% (95% CI, 6.6%-10.2%). Serotype III (61.5%) dominated, with 97% of cases caused by serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, and V.
The incidence of infant GBS disease remains high in some regions, particularly Africa. We likely underestimated incidence in some contexts, due to limitations in case ascertainment and specimen collection and processing. Burden in Asia requires further investigation.
In this paper, we propose a two-lane cellular automata model that explains the relationship between traffic-related parameters and likelihood of accidents Pac at a signalized intersection. It is ...found that, the risk of collision rises as well as the lane-changing probability Pchg augments, besides, the accidents and inflow α show a nonlinear relationship. Moreover, Pac exhibits three different phases (I, II and III) depending on α. Likewise, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase I to phase II when Pchg>0 (Pchg=0). Nevertheless, the transition from phase II to phase III is of first (second) order when Pchg>0 (Pchg=0). In addition, the result analysis shows that the distribution of accidents according to the intersection sites is not equiprobable. Furthermore, when the traffic arriving strength is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to restrain Pac and enhance the road safety. Finally, the model results illustrated that the traffic at the intersection is more dangerous adopting asymmetric lane-changing rules than symmetric ones.
•We investigated the risk of accidents at a signalized intersection using CA model.•Lane-changing probability has a significant effect on the risk of accidents.•The probability of accidents exhibits three phases depending on the injection rate.•Over 50% of all accidents occur at the fourth site of the intersection.•Traffic intersection is more dangerous adopting asymmetric rules than symmetric ones.
226Ra is radioactive and decayed from uranium, which is found naturally in soil and rock, and can get into water consumption supplies. Exposure to the radium in high doses, which is much higher than ...the levels seen in drinking water can be inducing cancer. In this study, A total of 69 drinking water samples were collected from Muang District, Maha Sarakham Province, and were measured 226Ra in water samples via Mn-fiber using gamma spectrometry (HPGe detector). The results showed that 226Ra concentrations ranged from 0 to 0.097 Bq/l and an average value of 0.025±0.003 Bq/l. All measured 226Ra concentrations are well below the allowed maximum level recommended by the WHO is 1 Bq/l. Lifetime cancer risk, as a result of ingestion of 226Ra by people from the study areas shows that an average of 3.81 out of 1,000,000 may go through some of the fatality cancer development, and 0.53 out of 1,000,000 may go through some of the hereditary effects.
Purpose
SARS-CoV-2 is a recently emerged ß-coronavirus. Here we present the current knowledge on its epidemiologic features.
Methods
Non-systematic review.
Results
SARS-CoV-2 replicates in the upper ...and lower respiratory tract. It is mainly transmitted by droplets and aerosols from asymptomatic and symptomatic infected subjects. The consensus estimate for the basis reproduction number (R
0
) is between 2 and 3, and the median incubation period is 5.7 (range 2–14) days. Similar to SARS and MERS, superspreading events have been reported, the dispersion parameter (kappa) is estimated at 0.1. Most infections are uncomplicated, and 5–10% of patients are hospitalized, mainly due to pneumonia with severe inflammation. Complications are respiratory and multiorgan failure; risk factors for complicated disease are higher age, hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiovascular, chronic pulmonary disease and immunodeficiency. Nosocomial and infections in medical personnel have been reported. Drastic reductions of social contacts have been implemented in many countries with outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2, leading to rapid reductions. Most interventions have used bundles, but which of the measures have been more or less effective is still unknown. The current estimate for the infection’s fatality rate is 0.5–1%. Using current models of age-dependent infection fatality rates, upper and lower limits for the attack rate in Germany can be estimated between 0.4 and 1.6%, lower than in most European countries.
Conclusions
Despite a rapid worldwide spread, attack rates have been low in most regions, demonstrating the efficacy of control measures.
Abstract
In this study, the outcomes of assessments of radon exhalation rates for both mass and surface, radium content and annual effective dose from 45 numbers of geological samples in Tiru Valley ...Coal Field area are presented. The nuclear track detector LR-115 (II) of bulk etch rate, V
B
= 4
μ
m h
−1
with a spark counter to archive alpha track density of radon was used to measure radon exhalation rate from the samples and to assess radiological exposure in the coalfield area, which has significant geological characteristics. In this work, the surface exhalation rates for coal, carbonaceous shale and sandstone samples have been estimated to be in the range of 217.4–659.9 mBq m
−2
h
−1
, 234.0–381.1 mBq m
−2
h
−1
and 337.1–741.4 mBq m
−2
h
−1
, respectively. The mass exhalation rates for coal, carbonaceous shale and sandstone samples varied in the range of 6.5–19.8 mBq kg
–1
h
−1
, 7.0–11.4 mBq kg
–1
h
−1
, and 10.1–22.2 mBq kg
–1
h
−1
, respectively. The radium contents have been found to vary in the range of 6.7–20.3 Bq kg
−1
, 7.2–11.8 Bq kg
−1
and 10.4–22.9 Bq kg
−1
for coal, carbonaceous shale and sandstone respectively. The annual effective doses related to the inhalation of radon from the exposure to the samples have been estimated to be in the range of 15.8–47.9
μ
Sv y
−1
, 17.0–27.7
μ
Sv y
−1
and 24.5–53.8
μ
Sv y
−1
for coal, carbonaceous shale and sandstone respectively. In this investigation, the lifetime fatality-risks have also been assessed. The values were generally higher in rock samples than in coal. However, the findings have shown that the obtained values are within the internationally accepted recommended values.
This study aimed to investigate the distributing factors affecting the injury severity of drivers and copilots in rear-end crashes between trucks on expressways, based on real world accident data in ...China. For this purpose, a total of 92 crashes on expressways in Changsha and Zhuzhou areas from 2010 to 2016 were selected. The data was analyzed statistically regarding the corresponding driver, vehicle, roadway and environment characteristics. Firstly, descriptive statistics were conducted to understand the rear-end crash characteristics. Then, ordered logistic regression models were utilized to identify the contributing factors affecting the injury severity of drivers and copilots in rear trucks. Finally, the fatality risk models with respect to relative speed were developed through single logistic regression analyses. The results showed that the probability of driver being fatal decreased if only right fronts of rear trucks were involved in crashes. The probability of copilot being fatal increased if the drivers turned left before crash occurrences or a light truck rear-ended a heavy truck. The relative speed had the highest statistical significance for the truck impact severity. And the copilots were more vulnerable in truck rear-end crashes compared with drivers, with the relative speeds corresponding to 50% probability of being fatal were 32.49 and 35.18 km/h, respectively. The findings from this study provided the theory and data bases for the development of active and passive protection systems.
•A total of 92 rear-end crashes between trucks on expressways were collected.•The characteristics of the rear-end crashes between trucks on the expressway were analyzed.•The injury severity models of the rear truck drivers and copilots were established using an ordered logistic regression technique.•The fatality risks on the relative speeds were assessed for the rear truck drivers and copilots through a single logistic regression model.
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