The relevance of the research consists in the need for evaluating the water resources changes of the Dniester due to global warming. The mountain part of the Dniester Basin is a zone of the river's ...runoff formation that determines its water content. The subject of research includes a process of climate changes and their impact on the water resources of the Mountain Dniester’s catchments. The research focuses on determining the water resources changes under current and possible future climatic conditions represented by climatic scenarios.
The research aims at evaluating the water resources changes of the mountain part of the Dniester’s catchment area at the present and in the future by the mid-21 st century (2021-2050) based on the “climate-runoff” model using meteorological observations data (up to 2018 inclusive) and scenario data (averaged data based on 14 mathematical models of the CORDEX project, RCP8.5 scenario).
During the research the resources of humidification, heat (heat equivalent) and water content for modern (1989-2018) and scenario (RCP8.5, 2021-2050) climatic conditions based on application of the "climate-runoff" model were evaluated. The theoretical basis for estimating the natural (undisturbed by water management) annual runoff in this model is represented by the water-heat balance equation. The meteorological characteristics (average monthly air temperatures and precipitation) serve as input data. The runoff calculated using the water-heat balance equation is called a climatic runoff. One of the peculiarities of the research consists in the use of the vertical zoning law with respect to distribution of runoff and climatic factors of its formation. During the comparative analysis the dependence of annual runoff norms on height of the Mountain Dniester’s terrain specified in modern regulatory documents served as a basic dependence. Such dependence reflects an altitude-dependant distribution of runoff for the climatic conditions that preceded the significant impact of global warming on air temperature (until 1989).
The analysis of the dependences of average long-term values of the annual runoff depending on the terrain altitude showed that the runoff changes for two studied periods (before and after 1989) are within ±12,3%. The analysis of the graphs of chronological course of annual water flow of the mountain tributaries of the Dniester made it possible to confirm the absence of statistically significant trends in their fluctuations.
According to the RCP8.5 climate scenario over the period of 2021-2050 and following the results of calculations based on the “climate-runoff” model, the dependences of the average long-term altitude-related values of climatic factors and climatic runoff were retrieved. It was found that the effects of global warming decrease with increasing altitude. In the foothills (up to 200 m) the annual precipitation decreases (up to 11%), the maximum possible evaporation increases (up to 17%) and water resources decrease (up to 46%). Heat resources cease to increase and water resources cease to reduce at the altitudes over 800 m. The average deviation of the scenario and baseline values for precipitation over the estimated period will amount to 2.41% for precipitation, 5.79% for maximum possible evaporation and 8.87% for water resources. Thus, reduction of water resources in the mountainous part of the Dniester by the mid-21 st century will be insignificant. When evaluating the current state of water resources of the Mountain Dniester no significant changes were discovered, thereby not contradicting the other authors’ data.
The relevance of the presented work is due to the necessity of assessment of a possible state of Ukrainian water resources in the 21st century according to climate change scenarios in order to ...justify the strategy of economic development.
The research object is presented by water resources of the Ukrainian rivers.
The research focuses on the effects of global warming on Ukrainian water resources in 2021-2050.
The work aims at assessing a possible impact of climate change on Ukrainian water resources in the 21st century, using the data from the climate change trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period of 2021 to 2050.
Calculations of water resources over the period of 2021 to 2050 are performed according to the average statistical model from the ensemble consisting of 14 climatic models of the CORDEX experiment for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 trajectories. Water resources are assessed based on the Climate-runoff model developed by OSENU. The result of such calculations is the evaluation of moisture and heat resources, as well as water resources in the natural conditions of their formation. Natural (undisturbed by water management) average long-term annual runoff determined by the meteorological data is usually called "a climatic runoff". The accuracy of climatic runoff calculations using the map of isolines is ±10%. The calculations are performed in the grid nodes. The geographical location of the selected nodes corresponds to the location of meteorological stations the total number of which is 115.
Evaluation of heat, moisture and water resources changes was performed by comparing the calculated values and the basic ones. The climatic runoff for the period of observations before 1989 is thought to be basic.
According to the average statistical model of the RCP4.5 trajectory over the period of 2021 to 2050, the expansion of the semi-arid zone and insufficient humidification zone to the north is to be expected (when compared to the basic period). The insufficient humidification zone will expand to the northwest displacing the sufficient humidification zone. The reduction of water resources will reach to minus 40-50% in the south of the country and to 0% - minus 10% in the north. The area of water resources growth will be preserved in the Ukrainian Carpathians.
Comparing to the RCP4.5 the RCP8.5 trajectory is considered to be more “rigid” in relation to the state of Ukrainian water resources. The reduction of water resources will occur on the nearly entire territory, except Bukovyna, due to the increase of arid climate. Water resources will decrease to minus 50-60% in the south and to minus 30% in the north.
Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 trajectories offer a forecast of water resources that is unfavourable for the development of Ukrainian economy, as it will cause expansion of both semi-arid and insufficient humidification zones. This will increase the water resources shortage in Ukraine.
•Cooling represents almost 2,9% and 6,7% of the total world energy consumption.•Climate change, increase of the population and income growth increase seriously the cooling demand.•The global cooling ...consumption of the residential sector ris expected to increase up to 34% in 2050 and 61% in 2100.
Cooling of buildings currently represents a considerable fraction of the total energy consumption in the world. Global and local climate change in combination with the projected population increase and economic development is expected to increase tremendously the future cooling energy demand of buildings and make it the dominant energy component. The present paper aims to present and discuss the details of the framework which defines the present and future cooling energy consumption of the building sector. The more recent quantitative and qualitative data concerning the penetration of air conditioning around the world are presented and analyzed. The main technological, economic, environmental and social drivers that determine the market penetration of air conditioning are identified and their impact is investigated. The potential future evolution of the main parameters that define the cooling energy consumption and in particular climate change, the population increase, income growth, potential technological improvements and the main socioeconomic drivers are investigated and existing forecasts are presented. Proposed methodologies to predict the future cooling energy consumption of the building sector are reported and discussed, while existing estimates and predictions regarding the future cooling energy consumption of individual buildings as well as of the total building sector are documented, evaluated and analyzed. Based on the explored inputs and forecasts, a model to predict the future cooling energy consumption of both the residential and commercial sector is developed. Three scenarios based on low, average and high future development, compared to the current development, are created and the range of the expected cooling energy demand in 2050 is predicted under various boundary assumptions. It is calculated that the average cooling energy demand of the residential and commercial buildings in 2050, will increase up to 750% and 275% respectively.
One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is ...confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081–2100 relative to the baseline period 1986–2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime.
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•An integrated geometry algorithm is developed to select GCM scenarios.•Extreme GCM scenarios are selected in a high dimensional space.•The algorithm is applied to three different geographical domains.•The performance of the algorithm is evaluated using a robust validation method.•Extreme GCM scenarios are selected with 100% accuracy.
Poorer, hotter countries are more vulnerable to climate change and will experience more negative impacts. The pattern of vulnerability between countries is used to impute impacts for income deciles ...within countries, for administrative regions, and for grid cells. Almost three‐quarters of people will face worse impacts than their country average. Between‐country variation is larger than within‐country variation for income deciles and regions, and about as large for grid cells. I here revisit earlier estimates of the economic impact of climate change and extend the analysis to impute the distribution of impacts within countries.
Poorer countries are more vulnerable to climate change. This qualitative insight has long been around, but quantification has lagged as estimating the impacts of climate change is difficult. I here revisit earlier estimates of the economic impact of climate change and extend the analysis to impute the distribution of impacts within countries.
Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change? Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert; Hassan, Rashid ...
The World Bank economic review,
01/2006, Letnik:
20, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African ...countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of −1.9) and livestock (−5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.
This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, ...southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich
The changing climate scenarios harshen the biotic stresses including boosting up the population of insect/pest and disease, uplifting weed growth, declining soil beneficial microbes, threaten ...pollinator, and boosting up abiotic stresses including harsh drought/waterlogging, extremisms in temperature, salinity/alkalinity, abrupt rainfall pattern)) and ulitamtely affect the plant in multiple ways. This nexus review paper will cover four significant points viz (1) the possible impacts of climate change; as the world already facing the problem of food security, in such crucial period, climatic change severely affects all four dimensions of food security (from production to consumption) and will lead to malnutrition/malnourishment faced by low-income peoples. (2) How some major crops (wheat, cotton, rice, maize, and sugarcane) are affected by stress and their consequent loss. (3) How to develop a strategic work to limit crucial factors, like their significant role in climate-smart breeding, developing resilience to stresses, and idiotypic breeding. Additionally, there is an essence of improving food security, as much of our food is wasted before consumption for instance post-harvest losses. (4) Role of biotechnology and genetic engineering in adaptive introgression of the gene or developing plant transgenic against pests. As millions of dollars are invested in innovation and research to cope with future climate change stresses on a plant, hence community base adaptation of innovation is also considered an important factor in crop improvements. Because of such crucial predictions about the future impacts of climate change on agriculture, we must adopt measures to evolve crop.
This research aimed to assess the perception of farmers on climate change impacts and to find out existing coping mechanisms for climate change adaptation. Quantitative and qualitative approaches ...were adopted with a sample size of 320 using IBM’s statistical software SPSS version 21, which was used to analyse data, mainly descriptive statistics (frequency and percentage). Results show that climate change was anticipated to seriously impact agricultural production, particularly rice crops, at a high perceived level. It is evident from the survey results that drought occurrences have the most significant impact on the economic destruction of households in the target areas due to their frequency, and damage is higher if compared to other disaster types. Followed by drought, flood is also one of the significant disaster effects on livelihoods. Based on the farmers’ practices, changing planting/harvesting data is the best choice for climate change adaptation. This low-cost option minimises the risk of climate change in agricultural practices. Changing crop variety is also one of the popular strategies for coping with climate change as it could tolerate current climate conditions and market situations. Other strategies, such as changing the level of inputs and investing in irrigation systems, were the secondary adaptation option in the target area because it is a high-cost option and some farmers could not afford it. In another case, even perceiving climate change, farmers did nothing because they did not have sufficient capacity to cope. Some challenges in climate change adaptation among Cambodian farmers include lack of money, poor potential for irrigation, shortage of land, lack of information and shortage of labour.
Introduction
We aimed to give a global overview of trends in access to sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic and what is being done ...to mitigate its impact.
Material and methods
We performed a descriptive analysis and content analysis based on an online survey among clinicians, researchers, and organizations. Our data were extracted from multiple‐choice questions on access to SRHR services and risk of SRHR violations, and written responses to open‐ended questions on threats to access and required response.
Results
The survey was answered by 51 people representing 29 countries. Eighty‐six percent reported that access to contraceptive services was less or much less because of COVID‐19, corresponding figures for surgical and medical abortion were 62% and 46%. The increased risk of gender‐based and sexual violence was assessed as moderate or severe by 79%. Among countries with mildly restrictive abortion policies, 69% had implemented changes to facilitate access to abortion during the pandemic, compared with none among countries with severe restrictions (P < .001), 87.5% compared with 46% had implemented changes to facilitate access to contraception (P = .023). The content analysis showed that (a) prioritizations in health service delivery at the expense of SRHR, (b) lack of political will, (c) the detrimental effect of lockdown, and (d) the suspension of sexual education, were threats to SRHR access (theme 1). Requirements to mitigate these threats (theme 2) were (a) political will and support of universal access to SRH services, (b) the sensitization of providers, (c) free public transport, and (d) physical protective equipment. A contrasting third theme was the state of exception of the COVID‐19 pandemic as a window of opportunity to push forward women's health and rights.
Conclusions
Many countries have seen decreased access to and increased violations of SRHR during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Countries with severe restrictions on abortion seem less likely to have implemented changes to SRHR delivery to mitigate this impact. Political will to support the advancement of SRHR is often lacking, which is fundamental to ensuring both continued access and, in a minority of cases, the solidification of gains made to SRHR during the pandemic.
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