We provide evidence for the importance of information asymmetry in asset pricing by using three natural experiments. Consistent with rational expectations models with multiple assets and multiple ...signals, we find that prices and uninformed demand fall as asymmetry increases. These falls are larger when more investors are uninformed, turnover is larger and more variable, payoffs are more uncertain, and the lost signal is more precise. Prices fall partly because expected returns become more sensitive to liquidity risk. Our results confirm that information asymmetry is priced and imply that a primary channel that links asymmetry to prices is liquidity.
The last several decades have witnessed a shift away from a fully rational paradigm of financial markets toward one in which investor behavior is influenced by psychological biases. Two principal ...factors have contributed to this evolution: a body of evidence showing how psychological bias affects the behavior of economic actors; and an accumulation of evidence that is hard to reconcile with fully rational models of security market trading volumes and returns. In particular, asset markets exhibit trading volumes that are high, with individuals and asset managers trading aggressively, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Moreover, asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations-based theories of price formation. In this paper, we discuss the role of overconfidence as an explanation for these patterns.
Most macroeconomic models assume that people know the true model of the economy -- that is, rational expectations. In this paper, they follow a different tradition and assume that agents use simple ...prediction models that are estimated using historical data. In other words, agents adopt a parsimonious model that fits the available data. In general, this parsimonious model will not nest the true model (though the true model may nest the parsimonious model). Following Fuster, Laibson, and Mendel (2010), they call the resulting beliefs natural expectations. They assume that agents use simplified models because economists and noneconomists -- statisticians, professional forecasters, and firms -- regularly make such simplifications.
DEEP EQUILIBRIUM NETS Azinovic, Marlon; Gaegauf, Luca; Scheidegger, Simon
International economic review,
November 2022, Letnik:
63, Številka:
4
Journal Article
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We introduce deep equilibrium nets (DEQNs)—a deep learning‐based method to compute approximate functional rational expectations equilibria of economic models featuring a significant amount of ...heterogeneity, uncertainty, and occasionally binding constraints. DEQNs are neural networks trained in an unsupervised fashion to satisfy all equilibrium conditions along simulated paths of the economy. Since DEQNs approximate the equilibrium functions directly, simulating the economy is computationally cheap, and training data can be generated at virtually zero cost. We demonstrate that DEQNs can accurately solve economically relevant models by applying them to two challenging life‐cycle models and a Bewley‐style model with aggregate risk.
ABSTRACT
The psychology literature documents that individuals derive current utility from their beliefs about future events. We show that, as a result, investors in financial markets choose to ...disagree about both private information and price information. When objective price informativeness is low, each investor dismisses the private signals of others and ignores price information. In contrast, when prices are sufficiently informative, heterogeneous interpretations arise endogenously: most investors ignore prices, while the rest condition on it. Our analysis demonstrates how observed deviations from rational expectations (e.g., dismissiveness, overconfidence) arise endogenously, interact with each other, and vary with economic conditions.
The aim of the article is to study the international experience, the experience of implementing the monetary regime of inflation targeting in Ukraine and formulate conclusions based on the results of ...the analysis of such implementation. It is determined that the basis of the practice of inflation targeting constitutes the idea that there are exclusively rational (inflationary) expectations of economic entities, which are subject to accurate calculation and influence. However, the presented arguments (the existence of business cycles, criticism from the position of adherers of behavioral economics, asymmetric information in financial markets) give grounds to assert that monetary policy can only preestimate the expectations of economic agents with a certain degree of probability. This explains the lack of an accurate correlation between the change in the central bank’s interest rate and its impact on the inflation rate. Based on the experience of foreign countries, it has been determined that at the first-priority stages of implementation of the studied monetary regime in the analyzed examples, there is a tendency to reduce the level of inflation due to increased requirements for the independence of central banks, their transparency and transparency of the monetary policy. The studied examples of the introduction of the monetary regime of inflation targeting show that the co-dependence of the regulatory influence of central banks and inflationary processes is caused by numerous factors (the formation of the institutional structure, the duration of the fight against inflationary processes, etc.). Further on, crisis situations reveal the peculiarity of the studied monetary regime: central banks do not directly manage inflationary processes, but adapt to them and curb inflation by means of a «soft» adjustment (as evidenced by the constant change in forecast analytics on inflation in future periods). The practice of introducing inflation targeting in Ukraine began in 2015 and there was a tendency to curb inflationary processes (which, in principle, is typical for the first-priority stages of the implementation of this monetary regime in other countries). However, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022 made it impossible to continue the practice of implementing this monetary regime (due to the abandonment of the floating exchange rate, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, monetary financing of the budget, etc.), which indicates limited opportunities for inflation targeting in extraordinary (crisis) situations.
Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and ...Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior.
Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades.
Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
In this article, we consider the discrete-time rational expectations model with state delays. In particular, the dynamic equation relies both on the history of states and the conditional expectation ...of the future states. The novelty of this article lies in transforming the solvability of the rational expectations model to that of the forward and backward stochastic difference equations (FBSDEs). The main contribution is to obtain the (unique) solvability and the explicit solutions for the FBSDEs in both finite horizon and infinite horizon. This accordingly gives the explicit solution of the rational expectations model. The key technology is to establish a nonhomogeneous relationship between forward and backward processes of the FBSDEs.
Inflation expectations and behavior Armantier, Olivier; De Bruin, Wändi Bruine; Topa, Giorgio ...
International economic review,
20/May , Letnik:
56, Številka:
2
Journal Article
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We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment. The survey is found to be informative in the sense ...that the beliefs reported by the respondents are correlated with their choices in the experiment. More importantly, we find evidence that most respondents act on their inflation expectations showing patterns consistent with economic theory. Respondents whose behavior cannot be rationalized tend to have lower education and lower numeracy and financial literacy. These findings help confirm the relevance of inflation expectations surveys and provide support to the microfoundations of modern macroeconomic models.
We develop a model of reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion where "gain-loss utility" is derived from standard "consumption utility" and the reference point is determined endogenously by ...the economic environment. We assume that a person's reference point is her rational expectations held in the recent past about outcomes, which are determined in a personal equilibrium by the requirement that they must be consistent with optimal behavior given expectations. In deterministic environments, choices maximize consumption utility, but gain-loss utility influences behavior when there is uncertainty. Applying the model to consumer behavior, we show that willingness to pay for a good is increasing in the expected probability of purchase and in the expected prices conditional on purchase. In within-day labor-supply decisions, a worker is less likely to continue work if income earned thus far is unexpectedly high, but more likely to show up as well as continue work if expected income is high.
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