The ongoing climate change‐induced shifts in flowering phenology have emerged as a consequential force impacting biodiversity and ecosystems. Despite the globally recognized significance of flowering phenology as a key reproductive attribute, studies in subtropical regions have been relatively fewer, particularly in comparison to temperate and cold regions. Additionally, the nuanced response of deciduous and evergreen plants to climate change remains insufficiently explored. In addressing this gap, we built a phenological model and a generalized linear mixed effect model to assess the differential responses of key flowering phenological traits, that is, first flowering date (FFD), peak flowering date (PFD), end of flowering date (EFD), and flowering duration (FD), to climate factors (temperature and precipitation) between deciduous and evergreen plants. We observed distinct responses in flowering phenological traits to climate change between deciduous and evergreen plants. Specifically, the advancement of FFD, PFD, and EFD in deciduous in response to temperature rise exceeded that in evergreen plants. FD in evergreen plants exhibited a stronger extension to temperature increase compared to deciduous. Conversely, the phenological change of evergreen plants in response to decreasing precipitation was greater than that of deciduous ones. Since temperature is a decisive climatic factor in affecting phenological changes, climate change‐induced advances in flowering phenology of deciduous plants are still larger than evergreen plants. Projections from our phenological model under future climate scenarios (SSP 1‐2.6 and SSP 5‐8.5) indicate a continuous enlargement of difference in flowering phenology between deciduous and evergreen plants, with this trend escalating into the future (2100>2070>2050>2030). The larger extension in FD of evergreens to climate change suggests a potential increase in their proportion within subtropical forest communities relative to deciduous plants. These insights contribute significantly to our understanding of the intricate dynamics of climate‐induced changes in subtropical plant ecosystems. 抽象的 气候变化引起的植物物候改变已对全球范围内生物多样性和生态系统产生重大影响。作为一种重要的生殖性状，开花物候研究主要集中在温带和寒冷地区，亚热带地区的研究较为少见。落叶植物和常绿植物是亚热带两种植物类型，但我们并不清楚它们开花物候对气候变化的响应会有所不同。为此，本文利用中国物候观测网的数据，建立了物候模型和广义线性混合效应模型，评估了落叶和常绿植物的4种开花物候性状，即首次开花日期 (first flowering date/FFD)、开花峰值日期 (peak flowering date /PFD)、开花结束日期 (end of flowering date /EFD)和开花持续时间 (flowering duration /FD)，对两种气候因子(温度和降水)变化的不同响应。结果发现，落叶植物和常绿植物的开花物候对气候变化响应有明显差别。其中，落叶植物的FFD、PFD和EFD对气温升高的敏感性高于常绿植物。但是，与落叶植物相比，常绿植物的FD对增温呈现出更强的延长趋势。相反，常绿植物的物候变化对降水减少的敏感性高于落叶植物；由于温度是驱动亚热带植物开花物候变化的决定性气候因子，它对降水作用的不等比抵消使得气候变化对落叶植物开花物候的影响远高于常绿植物；在SSP 1‐2.6和SSP 5‐8.5两种未来气候情景下，气候驱动的物候模型预测表明，落叶植物和常绿植物的开花物候差异将在未来持续扩大，并逐年呈上升趋势 (2100>2070>2050>2030年)；气候变化引起常绿植物FD的延长大于落叶植物，表明前者由于繁殖适合度增加，其在亚热带森林群落中的比例在未来可能不断扩大。本文研究首次揭示了气候变化对常绿和落叶植物物候差异化影响的机制。研究结果有助于了解和预测亚热带森林生态系统未来的复杂动态过程。 The ongoing climate change‐induced shifts in flowering phenology have emerged as a consequential force impacting biodiversity and ecosystems. We explore the differentiated response of flowering phenology to climate change between evergreen and deciduous species. Our results found that temperature is a key influencing factor of phenological change. Deciduous plants show more shift of flowering phenology than evergreens due to climate change, but reproductive advantages showed the opposite pattern. We predict that evergreen species will gain more competitive advantages in future subtropical forest communities.