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  • How Well Do Laboratory-Deri...
    Bartels, Daniel M.; Li, Ye; Bharti, Soaham

    Journal of experimental psychology. General, 09/2023, Letnik: 152, Številka: 9
    Journal Article

    A large literature implicates time preference (i.e., how much an outcome retains value as it is delayed) as a predictor of a wide range of behaviors, because most behaviors involve sooner and delayed consequences. We aimed to provide the most comprehensive examination to date of how well laboratory-derived estimates of time preference relate to self-reports of 36 behaviors, ranging from retirement savings to flossing, in a test-rest design using a large sample (N = 1,308) and two waves of data collection separated by 4.5 months. Time preference is significantly-albeit modestly-associated with about half of the behaviors; this is true even when controlling for 15 other demographic variables and psychologically relevant scales. There is substantial variance in the strengths of associations that is not easily explained. Time preference's predictive validity falls in the middle of these 16 possible predictors. Finally, we ask time preference researchers (N = 55) to predict the variation in the relationship between time preference and behaviors, and although they are reasonably well-calibrated, these experts tend to overestimate the predictive power of time preference estimates. We discuss implications of invoking time preference as a predictor and/or determinant of behaviors with delayed consequences in light of our findings. Public Significance StatementMultiple scientific fields describe people's future-oriented decisions in terms of time preference-how much value an outcome retains or loses as it is delayed from the present. Time preferences are assumed to predict people's behaviors with future consequences across various domains (e.g., finance, health). To that end, several papers have reported correlations of time preference with a few focal behaviors, and a smaller subset of these papers have examined such correlations for several behaviors. The current investigation is a more comprehensive accounting of how well time preference predicts behavior-(a) examining more behaviors than existing literature, (b) involving a large sample, as well as (c) using a test-retest design. We find correlations that are mostly modest and highly heterogeneous across behaviors. In addition, experts studying time preference can predict some of this heterogeneity in correlations but tend to systematically overestimate their size. This research underscores the need for greater understanding of the moderators that influence the relationship between time preference and behaviors with future consequences.