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HEIMER, RAWLEY Z.; MYRSETH, KRISTIAN OVE R.; SCHOENLE, RAPHAEL S.
The Journal of finance (New York), December 2019, Letnik: 74, Številka: 6Journal Article
We study the effect of subjective mortality beliefs on life-cycle behavior. With new survey evidence, we document that survival is underestimated (overestimated) by the young (old). We calibrate a canonical life-cycle model to elicited beliefs. Relative to calibrations using actuarial probabilities, the young undersave by 26%, and retirees draw down their assets 27% slower, while the model's fit to consumption data improves by 88%. Cross-sectional regressions support the model's predictions: Distorted mortality beliefs correlate with savings behavior while controlling for risk preferences, cognitive, and socioeconomic factors. Overweighting the likelihood of rare events contributes to mortality belief distortions.
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Leto | Faktor vpliva | Izdaja | Kategorija | Razvrstitev | ||||
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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in: SICRIS
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