Survival probabilities of white oak (Quercus alba) in small circular group and single tree openings ranging in size from 0.001 to 0.175 ha twelve years after opening creation are presented. At the beginning of the study, 3948 advance reproduction white oak trees were measured and tagged to determine survival of each tagged seedling at the end of the study. Logistic regression indicated that variables important in predicting advance reproduction survival included initial seedling basal diameter, aspect, slope, canopy opening size, opening border tree height and treatment for control of understory competition. Survival probability ranged from 10% to 90% depending on the combination of and disposition of variables. For these small openings, the greatest probability of survival of advance reproduction resulted when advance reproduction initial basal diameters were ≥1 cm, when the height of trees bordering the openings were relatively short, with understory chemical competition control, in the largest canopy openings, on 6% slopes, and on southwest and northwest aspects. These criteria can help managers select sites and treatment options for group opening creation that provide optimal conditions for advance reproduction survival.