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  • The future value of ecosyst...
    Kubiszewski, Ida; Costanza, Robert; Anderson, Sharolyn; Sutton, Paul

    Ecosystem services, August 2017, 2017-08-00, Letnik: 26
    Journal Article

    •Global ecosystem services value can differ by $81trillion/yr by 2050 by scenario.•Land use change and management underlays our estimates.•We provide global assessments and details for every country.•Countries with deserts see the greatest effects.•The Great Transition scenario can allow a sustainable and desirable future. We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. We used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. We mapped projected land-use for 16biomes at 1km2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $51trillion/yr or increase by USD $30trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, we report totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.