Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) regulates energy expenditure (EE) and influences weight change during low-protein overfeeding in rodent models. The change in EE after a low-protein overfeeding diet is a predictor of weight change in humans and a feature of the "thrifty" metabolic phenotype. However, there are no studies showing an association between circulating FGF21 and diet-related EE in humans. We assessed the changes in plasma FGF21 concentrations after 24 h of seven dietary interventions with different macronutrient content while in a whole-room indirect calorimeter in 64 healthy subjects with normal glucose regulation. Plasma FGF21 concentration consistently increased by threefold only after the two low-protein (3%) overfeeding diets, one high in carbohydrate (75%) and the other high in fat (46%), with larger increases in FGF21 being associated with greater increases in 24-h EE. Subjects with smaller increases in FGF21 after the low-protein high-fat diet gained more weight after 6 months in free-living conditions. Therefore, the individual predisposition to weight gain over time can be assessed by 24-h overfeeding a low-protein diet and measurements of plasma FGF21 concentrations. Individuals with a blunted FGF21 response to a low-protein diet have a thrifty metabolism and are at risk for future weight gain.