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  • Risk Prediction Models for ...
    Allen, David W., MD; Ma, Bryan; Leung, Kelvin C., MD; Graham, Michelle M., MD; Pannu, Neesh, MD, SM; Traboulsi, Mouhieddin, MD; Goodhart, David, MD; Knudtson, Merril L., MD; James, Matthew T., MD, PhD

    Canadian journal of cardiology, 06/2017, Letnik: 33, Številka: 6
    Journal Article

    Abstract Background Identification of patients at risk of contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) is valuable for targeted prevention strategies accompanying cardiac catheterization. Methods We searched MedLine and EMBASE for articles that developed or validated a clinical prediction model for CI-AKI or dialysis after angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool c-statistics of models. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified analyses and meta-regression. Results We identified 75 articles describing 74 models predicting CI-AKI, 10 predicting CI-AKI and dialysis, and 1 predicting dialysis. Sixty-three developed a new risk model whereas 20 articles reported external validation of previously developed models. Thirty models included sufficient information to obtain individual patient risk estimates; 9 using only preprocedure variables whereas 21 included preprocedural and postprocedure variables. There was heterogeneity in the discrimination of CI-AKI prediction models (median total range in c-statistic 0.78 0.57-0.95; I2  = 95.8%, Cochran Q-statistic P < 0.001). However, there was no difference in the discrimination of models using only preprocedure variables compared with models that included postprocedural variables ( P  = 0.868). Models predicting dialysis had good discrimination without heterogeneity (median total range c-statistic: 0.88 0.87-0.89; I2  = 0.0%, Cochran Q-statistic P  = 0.981). Seven prediction models were externally validated; however, 2 of these models showed heterogeneous discriminative performance and 2 others lacked information on calibration in external cohorts. Conclusions Three published models were identified that produced generalizable risk estimates for predicting CI-AKI. Further research is needed to evaluate the effect of their implementation in clinical care.