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Held, Isaac M.; Winton, Michael; Takahashi, Ken; Delworth, Thomas; Zeng, Fanrong; Vallis, Geoffrey K.
Journal of climate, 05/2010, Letnik: 23, Številka: 9Journal Article
The fast and slow components of global warming in a comprehensive climate model are isolated by examining the response to an instantaneous return to preindustrial forcing. The response is characterized by an initial fast exponential decay with ane-folding time smaller than 5 yr, leaving behind a remnant that evolves more slowly. The slow component is estimated to be small at present, as measured by the global mean near-surface air temperature, and, in the model examined, grows to 0.4°C by 2100 in the A1B scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), and then to 1.4°C by 2300 if one holds radiative forcing fixed after 2100. The dominance of the fast component at present is supported by examining the response to an instantaneous doubling of CO₂ and by the excellent fit to the model’s ensemble mean twentieth-century evolution with a simple one-box model with no long times scales.
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Leto | Faktor vpliva | Izdaja | Kategorija | Razvrstitev | ||||
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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in: SICRIS
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