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  • Novel Model to Predict Gast...
    Yin, Michael Yaoyao; Ruckel, Shane; Kfoury, Abdallah G.; McKellar, Stephen H.; Taleb, Iosif; Gilbert, Edward M.; Nativi-Nicolau, Jose; Stehlik, Josef; Reid, Bruce B.; Koliopoulou, Antigone; Stoddard, Gregory J.; Fang, James C.; Drakos, Stavros G.; Selzman, Craig H.; Wever-Pinzon, Omar

    Circulation. Heart failure, 11/2018, Letnik: 11, Številka: 11
    Journal Article

    Background: Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a leading cause of morbidity during continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (CF-LVAD) support. GIB risk assessment could have important implications for candidate selection, informed consent, and postimplant therapeutic strategies. The aim of the study is to derive and validate a predictive model of GIB in CF-LVAD patients. Methods and Results: CF-LVAD recipients at the Utah Transplantation Affiliated Hospitals program between 2004 and 2017 were included. GIB associated with a decrease in hemoglobin ≥2 g/dL was the primary end point. A weighted score comprising preimplant variables independently associated with GIB was derived and internally validated. A total of 351 patients (median age, 59 years; 82% male) were included. After a median of 196 days, GIB occurred in 120 (34%) patients. Independent predictors of GIB included age >54 years, history of previous bleeding, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, severe right ventricular dysfunction, mean pulmonary artery pressure <18 mm Hg, and fasting glucose >107 mg/dL. A weighted score termed Utah bleeding risk score, effectively stratified patients based on their probability of GIB: low (0–1 points) 4.8%, intermediate (2–4) 39.8%, and high risk (5–9) 83.8%. Discrimination was good in the development sample (c-index: 0.83) and after internal bootstrap validation (c-index: 0.74). Conclusions: The novel Utah bleeding risk score is a simple tool that can provide personalized GIB risk estimates in CF-LVAD patients. This scoring system may assist clinicians and investigators in designing tailored risk-based strategies aimed at reducing the burden posed by GIB in the individual CF-LVAD patient and healthcare systems.