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  • ELAPSS score for prediction...
    Backes, Daan; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greving, Jacoba P; Velthuis, Birgitta K; Murayama, Yuichi; Takao, Hiroyuki; Ishibashi, Toshihiro; Igase, Michiya; terBrugge, Karel G; Agid, Ronit; Jääskeläinen, Juha E; Lindgren, Antti E; Koivisto, Timo; von Und Zu Fraunberg, Mikael; Matsubara, Shunji; Moroi, Junta; Wong, George K C; Abrigo, Jill M; Igase, Keiji; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Wermer, Marieke J H; van Walderveen, Marianne A A; Algra, Ale; Vergouwen, Mervyn D I

    Neurology, 2017-Apr-25, 2017-04-25, 20170425, Letnik: 88, Številka: 17
    Journal Article

    To develop a risk score that estimates 3-year and 5-year absolute risks for aneurysm growth. From 10 cohorts of patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms and follow-up imaging, we pooled individual data on sex, population, age, hypertension, history of subarachnoid hemorrhage, and aneurysm location, size, aspect ratio, and shape but not on smoking during follow-up and family history of intracranial aneurysms in 1,507 patients with 1,909 unruptured intracranial aneurysms and used aneurysm growth as outcome. With aneurysm-based multivariable Cox regression analysis, we determined predictors for aneurysm growth, which were presented as a risk score to calculate 3-year and 5-year risks for aneurysm growth by risk factor status. Aneurysm growth occurred in 257 patients (17%) and 267 aneurysms (14%) during 5,782 patient-years of follow-up. Predictors for aneurysm growth were earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, location of the aneurysm, age >60 years, population, size of the aneurysm, and shape of the aneurysm (ELAPSS). The 3-year growth risk ranged from <5% to >42% and the 5-year growth risk from <9% to >60%, depending on the risk factor status. The ELAPSS score consists of 6 easily retrievable predictors and can help physicians in decision making on the need for and timing of follow-up imaging in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms.