The rates of a hindered molecular rotation induced by tunneling electrons are evaluated using scattering theory within the sudden approximation. Our approach explains the excitation of copper phthalocyanine molecules (CuPc) on Cu(111) as revealed in a recent measurement of telegraph noise in a scanning tunneling microscopy experiment Schaffert et al., Nat. Mater. 12, 223 (2013) (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nmat3527). A complete explanation of the experimental data is performed by computing the geometry of the adsorbed system, its electronic structure, and the energy transfer between tunneling electrons and the molecule's rotational degree of freedom. The results unambiguously show that tunneling electrons induce a frustrated rotation of the molecule. In addition, the theory determines the spatial distribution of the frustrated rotation excitation, confirming the striking dominance of two out of four molecular lobes in the observed excitation process. This lobe selectivity is attributed to the different hybridizations with the underlying substrate.