The present study proposes a method to predict the burst pressures (BPs) of type III filament winding carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) composite pressure vessels considering the inhomogeneity of carbon fiber packing through experimental work and simplified mechanical models reflecting the evolution of local damage in the CFRP layers. Vessels that had different carbon fiber volume fractions (Vfs) were prepared and tested to measure their BPs. The inhomogeneity of carbon fiber packing was evaluated using Weibull probability based on the microscopic observation of CFRP cross-sections in the virgin vessels. Detailed stress analyses of pressurized composite vessels considering the carbon Vf were conducted. Unstable fracture of the hoop layer was demonstrated by a simplified mechanical model combined with the inhomogeneity of the carbon Vf and de-bonding between the fiber and matrix. About 20% difference in the BP was measured between tested vessels with and without glass fiber-reinforced plastic layers over CFRP layers. The proposed method for predicting the BP based on the constant stress model enables consideration of the development of local fiber breaking prior to catastrophic fracture and to quantitatively estimate the change in the BP due to the difference in Vf.