To use novel statistical methods for analyzing the effect of lesion set on (long-standing) persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) in the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network trial of surgical ablation during mitral valve surgery (MVS). Two hundred sixty such patients were randomized to MVS + surgical ablation or MVS alone. Ablation was randomized between pulmonary vein isolation and biatrial maze. During 12 months postsurgery, 228 patients (88%) submitted 7949 transtelephonic monitoring (TTM) recordings, analyzed for AF, atrial flutter (AFL), or atrial tachycardia (AT). As previously reported, more ablation than MVS-alone patients were free of AF or AF/AFL at 6 and 12 months (63% vs 29%; P < .001) by 72-hour Holter monitoring, without evident difference between lesion sets (for which the trial was underpowered). Estimated freedom from AF/AFL/AT on any transmission trended higher after biatrial maze than pulmonary vein isolation (odds ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-5.65; P = .07) 3 to 12 months postsurgery; estimated AF/AFL/AT load (ie, proportion of TTM strips recording AF/AFL/AT) was similar (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-1.43; P = .6). Within 12 months, estimated prevalence of AF/AFL/AT by TTM was 58% after MVS alone, and 36% versus 23% after pulmonary vein isolation versus biatrial maze (P < .02). Statistical modeling using TTM recordings after MVS in patients with (long-standing) persistent AF suggests that a biatrial maze is associated with lower AF/AFL/AT prevalence, but not a lower load, compared with pulmonary vein isolation. The discrepancy between AF/AFL/AT prevalence assessed at 2 time points by Holter monitoring versus weekly TTM suggests the need for a confirmatory trial, reassessment of definitions for failure after ablation, and validation of statistical methods for assessing atrial rhythms longitudinally.