•Reviews the fundamental physics aspects of the first ITER W divertor and defines the required operational lifetime within the Staged Approach.•Uses the ITER divertor SOLPS simulation database to establish the target peak heat flux and neutral pressure burning plasma operating domain.•Assesses consequences of narrow SOL heat flux channels, fluid drifts, component shaping and 3D magnetic fields for ELM control.•Uses W recrystallization to define an operational budget and shows that heat fluxes ∼50% higher than previously assumed may be acceptable.•Shows that Ne and N should be equally good as seed impurities and suggests that very strong ELM mitigation will be required at high performance.•Provides a list of key outstanding R&D areas to consolidate the divertor physics basis in the period up to ITER operation. On the eve of component procurement, this paper discusses the present physics basis for the first ITER tungsten (W) divertor, beginning with a reminder of the key elements defining the overall design, and outlining relevant aspects of the Research Plan accompanying the new “staged approach” to ITER nuclear operations which fixes the overall divertor lifetime constraint. The principal focus is on the main design driver, steady state power fluxes in the DT phases, obtained from simulations using the 2-D SOLPS-4.3 and SOLPS-ITER plasma boundary codes, assuming the use of the low Z seeding impurities nitrogen (N) and neon (Ne). A new perspective on the simulation database is adopted, concentrating purely on the divertor physics aspects rather than on the core-edge integration, which has been studied extensively in the course of the divertor design evolution and is published elsewhere. Emphasis is placed on factors which may increase the peak steady state loads: divertor target shaping for component misalignment protection, the influence of fluid drifts, and the consequences of narrow scrape-off layer heat flux channels. All tend to push the divertor into an operating space at higher sub-divertor neutral pressure in order to remain at power flux densities acceptable for the target material. However, a revised criterion for the maximum tolerable loads based on avoidance of W recrystallization, sets an upper limit potentially ∼50% higher than the previously accepted value of ∼10 MW m−2, a consequence both of the choice of material and the finalized component design. Although the simulation database is currently restricted to the 2-D toroidally symmetric situation, considerable progress is now also being made using the EMC3-Eirene 3-D code suite for the assessment of power loading in the presence of magnetic perturbations for ELM control. Some new results for low input power corresponding to the early H-mode operation phases are reported, showing that even if realistic plasma screening is taken into account, significant asymmetric divertor heat fluxes may arise far from the unperturbed strike point. The issue of tolerable limits for transient heat pulses is an open and key question. A new scaling for ELM power deposition has shown that whilst there may be more latitude for operation at higher current without ELM control, the ultimate limit is likely to be set more by material fatigue under large numbers of sub-threshold melting events.