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Rennert, Kevin; Errickson, Frank; Prest, Brian C.; Rennels, Lisa; Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William; Kingdon, Cora; Wingenroth, Jordan; Cooke, Roger; Parthum, Bryan; Smith, David; Cromar, Kevin; Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances C.; Müller, Ulrich K.; Plevin, Richard J.; Raftery, Adrian E.; Ševčíková, Hana; Sheets, Hannah; Stock, James H.; Tan, Tammy; Watson, Mark; Wong, Tony E.; Anthoff, David
Nature, 10/2022, Letnik: 610, Številka: 7933Journal Article
Abstract The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO 2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO 2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO 2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO 2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO 2 . Our preferred mean SC-CO 2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO 2 ($44–$413 per tCO 2 : 5%–95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government’s current value of $51 per tCO 2 . Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO 2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO 2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.
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Dostop do baze podatkov JCR je dovoljen samo uporabnikom iz Slovenije. Vaš trenutni IP-naslov ni na seznamu dovoljenih za dostop, zato je potrebna avtentikacija z ustreznim računom AAI.
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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Vir: Osebne bibliografije
in: SICRIS
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