This paper presents a computational framework that generates ensemble predictive mechanics models with uncertainty quantification (UQ). We first develop a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data measured during each representative volume element (RVE) simulation through a directed acyclic graph. With multiple plausible sets of causal relationships estimated from multiple RVE simulations, the predictions are propagated in the derived causal graph while using a deep neural network equipped with dropout layers as a Bayesian approximation for UQ. We select two representative numerical examples (traction-separation laws for frictional interfaces, elastoplasticity models for granular assembles) to examine the accuracy and robustness of the proposed causal discovery method for the common material law predictions in civil engineering applications. Graphic abstract