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FROLKING, STEVE; ROULET, NIGEL T
Global change biology, 20/May , Letnik: 13, Številka: 5Journal Article
Throughout the Holocene, northern peatlands have both accumulated carbon and emitted methane. Their impact on climate radiative forcing has been the net of cooling (persistent CO₂ uptake) and warming (persistent CH₄ emission). We evaluated this by developing very simple Holocene peatland carbon flux trajectories, and using these as inputs to a simple atmospheric perturbation model. Flux trajectories are based on estimates of contemporary CH₄ flux (15-50 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹), total accumulated peat C (250-450 Pg C), and peatland initiation dates. The contemporary perturbations to the atmosphere due to northern peatlands are an increase of ~100 ppbv CH₄ and a decrease of ~35 ppmv CO₂. The net radiative forcing impact northern peatlands is currently about -0.2 to -0.5 W m⁻² (a cooling). It is likely that peatlands initially caused a net warming of up to +0.1 W m⁻², but have been causing an increasing net cooling for the past 8000-11 000 years. A series of sensitivity simulations indicate that the current radiative forcing impact is determined primarily by the magnitude of the contemporary methane flux and the magnitude of the total C accumulated as peat, and that radiative forcing dynamics during the Holocene depended on flux trajectory, but the overall pattern was similar in all cases.
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