Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Lj. (FSLJ)
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Napovedovanje porabe električne energije z umetno inteligenco = Prediction of electricity consumtion with artifical inteligenceČegovnik, Tomaž ...V članku so predstavljeni rezultati raziskave uporabe novih algoritmov umetne inteligence za napovedovanje porabe električne energije na merilnih mestih končnih porabnikov. Raziskava je bila ... sestavljena iz treh sklopov: analiza vplivnih dejavnikov, analiza dnevnih profilov na posameznih merilnih mestih ter razvoj algoritmov za napovedovanje porabe električne energije. Na realnih zgodovinskih podatkih za več kot 2700 končnih porabnikov smo razvili tri algoritme, ki temeljijo na klastrski analizi v kombinaciji s slučajnimi drevesi in nevronskimi mrežami ter posplošenih linearnih modelih. Algoritme smo ovrednotili po metodi deljenja podatkov v učno množico, ki zajema vse podatke od prvega dne do izbranega četrtka, v testno množico pa podatke od sobote po izbranem četrtku do naslednjega petka. Z izračunom vrednosti MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) smo ovrednotili kakovost izdelane napovedi. Rezultati kažejo, da vsi trije algoritmi dosegajo vrednosti MAPE pod 10 % v več kot 50 % testnih primerov. To je glede na zastavljene zahteve zelo dober rezultat, v povprečju pa se najbolje obnaša algoritem, ki temelji na posplošenih linearnih modelih. Vsi algoritmi so razviti v okolju R, podatki so shranjeni v podatkovni bazi MongoDB, pripravo in filtriranje podatkov pa smo realizirali v okolju Python.Type of material - conference contributionPublish date - 2021Language - slovenianCOBISS.SI-ID - 68521731
Author
Čegovnik, Tomaž |
Dobrovoljc, Andrej, 1967- |
Povh, Janez, 1973- |
Rogar, Matic
Topics
umetna inteligenca |
napovedovanje porabe električne energije |
profiliranje porabnikov |
vplivni faktorji |
artificial intelligence |
electricity consumption forecasting |
consumer profiling |
influencing factors
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Year | Impact factor | Edition | Category | Classification | ||||
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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Database name | Field | Year |
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Links to authors' personal bibliographies | Links to information on researchers in the SICRIS system |
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Čegovnik, Tomaž | 38116 |
Dobrovoljc, Andrej, 1967- | 34633 |
Povh, Janez, 1973- | 22649 |
Rogar, Matic |
Source: Personal bibliographies
and: SICRIS
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