The surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea are extremely poor in the nutrients necessary for plankton growth. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea borders with the largest and most active desert ...areas in the world and the atmosphere over the basin is subject to frequent injections of mineral dust particles. We describe statistical correlations between dust deposition over the Mediterranean Sea and surface chlorophyll concentrations at ecological time scales. Aerosol deposition of Saharan origin may explain 1 to 10% (average 5%) of seasonally detrended chlorophyll variability in the low nutrient-low chlorophyll Mediterranean. Most of the statistically significant correlations are positive with main effects in spring over the Eastern and Central Mediterranean, conforming to a view of dust events fueling needed nutrients to the planktonic community. Some areas show negative effects of dust deposition on chlorophyll, coinciding with regions under a large influence of aerosols from European origin. The influence of dust deposition on chlorophyll dynamics may become larger in future scenarios of increased aridity and shallowing of the mixed layer.
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•We quantify the impact of desert dust on particulate matter air quality over Italy.•We derive a multiannual dataset of desert dust-PM10 values resolved by site and day.•In Italy ...desert dust contributes to exceed PM10 limit values fixed by EU and WHO.•Random forest modelling is used to obtain a spatially continuous dust-PM10 field.•Geostatistical model outcomes will serve as a basis to study dust impact on health.
Desert dust storms pose real threats to air quality and health of millions of people in source regions, with associated impacts extending to downwind areas. Europe (EU) is frequently affected by atmospheric transport of desert dust from the Northern Africa and Middle East drylands. This investigation aims at quantifying the role of desert dust transport events on air quality (AQ) over Italy, which is among the EU countries most impacted by this phenomenon. We focus on the particulate matter (PM) metrics regulated by the EU AQ Directive. In particular, we use multiannual (2006–2012) PM10 records collected in hundreds monitoring sites within the national AQ network to quantify daily and annual contributions of dust during transport episodes. The methodology followed was built on specific European Commission guidelines released to evaluate the natural contributions to the measured PM-levels, and was partially modified, tested and adapted to the Italian case in a previous study. Overall, we show that impact of dust on the yearly average PM10 has a clear latitudinal gradient (from less than 1 to greater than 10 µg/m3 going from north to south Italy), this feature being mainly driven by an increased number of dust episodes per year with decreasing latitude. Conversely, the daily-average dust-PM10 (≅12 µg/m3) is more homogenous over the country and shown to be mainly influenced by the site type, with enhanced values in more urbanized locations. This study also combines the PM10 measurements-approach with geostatistical modelling. In particular, exploiting the dust-PM10 dataset obtained at site- and daily-resolution over Italy, a geostatistical, random-forest model was set up to derive a daily, spatially-continuous field of desert-dust PM10 at high (1-km) resolution. This finely resolved information represent the basis for a follow up investigation of both acute and chronic health effects of desert dust over Italy, stemming from daily and annual exposures, respectively.
The BSC-DREAM8b model and its predecessor are analysed in terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2004 over Northern Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. We discuss the model performance ...and we test and analyse its behaviour with new components. The results are evaluated using hourly data from 44 AERONET stations and seasonally averaged satellite observations. The operational versions strongly underestimate the winter AOD over the Sahel and overestimate the AOD over the Middle East and the Mediterranean achieving a low average annual correlation (~0.35). The use of a more detailed size distribution and a corrected wash-out ratio, together with a new dry deposition scheme, improves the transport over the Mediterranean, although underestimations remain over the Sahel and overestimations over the Middle East. The inclusion of a 'preferential source' mask improves the localisation of the main North African sources and consequently the dust transport towards Europe and the Atlantic. The use of a more physically based dust emission scheme and a new soil texture database leads to significant improvements in the representation of emissions and the transport over the Sahel, achieving an average annual correlation of 0.53. In this case, the use of a preferential source mask does not introduce significant improvements.
A unique 4-week ship cruise from Guadeloupe to Cabo Verde in April–May 2013 see part 1, Rittmeister et al. (2017) is used for an in-depth comparison of dust profiles observed with a ...polarization/Raman lidar aboard the German research vessel Meteor over the remote tropical Atlantic and respective dust forecasts of a regional (SKIRON) and two global atmospheric (dust) transport models (NMMB/BSC-Dust, MACC/CAMS). New options of model–observation comparisons are presented. We analyze how well the modeled fine dust (submicrometer particles) and coarse dust contributions to light extinction and mass concentration match respective lidar observations, and to what extent models, adjusted to aerosol optical thickness observations, are able to reproduce the observed layering and mixing of dust and non-dust (mostly marine) aerosol components over the remote tropical Atlantic. Based on the coherent set of dust profiles at well-defined distances from Africa (without any disturbance by anthropogenic aerosol sources over the ocean), we investigate how accurately the models handle dust removal at distances of 1500 km to more than 5000 km west of the Saharan dust source regions. It was found that (a) dust predictions are of acceptable quality for the first several days after dust emission up to 2000 km west of the African continent, (b) the removal of dust from the atmosphere is too strong for large transport paths in the global models, and (c) the simulated fine-to-coarse dust ratio (in terms of mass concentration and light extinction) is too high in the models compared to the observations. This deviation occurs initially close to the dust sources and then increases with distance from Africa and thus points to an overestimation of fine dust emission in the models.
Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi‐model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An ...update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP‐MME over 2012–2017, with a focus on June 2016–May 2017. Evaluated with ground‐based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP‐MME AOD consensus remains the overall top‐scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root‐mean‐square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine‐ and coarse‐mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP‐MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP‐MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP‐MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP‐MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012–2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine‐mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse‐mode AOD is found overall for this time period.
International Cooperative for Aerosol Predictions (ICAP) model 550 nm total AOD RMSE of the 72 h forecast versus corresponding mean AODs for AERONET sites listed in Table 2. Large black dots are ICAP multi‐model ensemble consensus means. Individual models are in small coloured dots. Validation of fine‐ and coarse‐modal AODs and dust AOD is also available in Figure 2.
We present the dust module in the Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) version 2.0, a chemical weather prediction system that can be used for regional and global ...modeling at a range of resolutions. The representations of dust processes in MONARCH were upgraded with a focus on dust emission (emission parameterizations, entrainment thresholds, considerations of soil moisture and surface cover), lower boundary conditions (roughness, potential dust sources), and dust–radiation interactions. MONARCH now allows modeling of global and regional mineral dust cycles using fundamentally different paradigms, ranging from strongly simplified to physics-based parameterizations. We present a detailed description of these updates along with four global benchmark simulations, which use conceptually different dust emission parameterizations, and we evaluate the simulations against observations of dust optical depth. We determine key dust parameters, such as global annual emission/deposition flux, dust loading, dust optical depth, mass-extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and direct radiative effects. For dust-particle diameters up to 20 µm, the total annual dust emission and deposition fluxes obtained with our four experiments range between about 3500 and 6000 Tg, which largely depend upon differences in the emitted size distribution. Considering ellipsoidal particle shapes and dust refractive indices that account for size-resolved mineralogy, we estimate the global total (longwave and shortwave) dust direct radiative effect (DRE) at the surface to range between about −0.90 and −0.63 W m−2 and at the top of the atmosphere between −0.20 and −0.28 W m−2. Our evaluation demonstrates that MONARCH is able to reproduce key features of the spatiotemporal variability of the global dust cycle with important and insightful differences between the different configurations.
A characterisation of the dust transported from North Africa deserts to the Cape Verde Islands, including particle size distribution, concentrations and optical properties, for a complete annual ...cycle (the year 2011), is presented and discussed. The present analysis includes annual simulations of the BSC-DREAM8b and the NMMB/BSC-Dust models, 1-yr of surface aerosol measurements performed within the scope of the CV-DUST Project, AERONET direct-sun observations, and back-trajectories. A seasonal intrusion of dust from North West Africa affects Cape Verde at surface levels from October till March when atmospheric concentrations in Praia are very high (PM10 observed concentrations reach hourly values up to 710 µg/m
3
). The air masses responsible for the highest aerosol concentrations in Cape Verde describe a path over the central Saharan desert area in Algeria, Mali and Mauritania before reaching the Atlantic Ocean. During summer, dust from North Africa is transported towards the region at higher altitudes, yielding to high aerosol optical depths. The BSC-DREAM8b and the NMMB/BSC-Dust models, which are for the first time evaluated for surface concentration and size distribution in Africa for an annual cycle, are able to reproduce the majority of the dust episodes. Results from NMMB/BSC-Dust are in better agreement with observed particulate matter concentrations and aerosol optical depth throughout the year. For this model, the comparison between observed and modelled PM10 daily averaged concentrations yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and a 29.0 µg/m
3
'bias', while for BSC-DREAM8b the correlation coefficient was 0.63 and 'bias' 32.9 µg/m
3
. From this value, 12-14 µg/m
3
is due to the sea salt contribution, which is not considered by the model. In addition, the model does not take into account biomass-burning particles, secondary pollutants and local sources (i.e., resuspension). These results roughly allow for the establishment of a yearly contribution of 42% of dust from North African deserts for PM10 levels observed in Cape Verde.
Recent studies have found increases in the cardiovascular mortality rates during poor air quality events due to outbreaks of desert dust. In Tenerife, we collected (2014-2017) data in 829 patients ...admitted with a heart failure diagnosis in the Emergency Department of the University Hospital of the Canaries. In this region, concentrations of PM
and PM
are usually low (~20 and 10 µg/m
), but they increase to 360 and 115 μg/m
, respectively, during Saharan dust events. By using statistical tools (including multivariable logistic regressions), we compared in-hospital mortality of patients with heart failure and exposure to PM
and PM
during dust and no-dust events. We found that 86% of in-hospital heart failure mortality cases occurred during Saharan dust episodes that resulted in PM
> 50 µg/m
(interquartile range: 71-96 µg/m
). A multivariate analysis showed that, after adjusting for other covariates, exposure to Saharan dust events associated with PM
> 50 µg/m
was an independent predictor of heart failure in-hospital mortality (OR = 2.79, 95% CI (1.066-7.332),
= 0.03). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that exposure to high Saharan dust concentrations is independently associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.
The present work demonstrates the impact of model resolution in dust propagation in a complex terrain region such as West Asia. For this purpose, two simulations using the NMMB/BSC-Dust model are ...performed and analysed, one with a high horizontal resolution (at 0.03° × 0.03°) and one with a lower horizontal resolution (at 0.33° × 0.33°). Both model experiments cover two intense dust storms that occurred on 17–20 March 2012 as a consequence of strong northwesterly Shamal winds that spanned over thousands of kilometres in West Asia. The comparison with ground-based (surface weather stations and sunphotometers) and satellite aerosol observations (Aqua/MODIS and MSG/SEVIRI) shows that despite differences in the magnitude of the simulated dust concentrations, the model is able to reproduce these two dust outbreaks. Differences between both simulations on the dust spread rise on regional dust transport areas in south-western Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Oman. The complex orography in south-western Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Oman (with peaks higher than 3000 m) has an impact on the transported dust concentration fields over mountain regions. Differences between both model configurations are mainly associated to the channelization of the dust flow through valleys and the differences in the modelled altitude of the mountains that alters the meteorology and blocks the dust fronts limiting the dust transport. These results demonstrate how the dust prediction in the vicinity of complex terrains improves using high-horizontal resolution simulations.
Sand and dust storms (SDS) are an important threat to life, health, property, environment and economy in many countries, and play a significant role in different aspects of weather, climate and ...atmospheric chemistry. There is an increasing need for SDS accurate information and predictions to support early warning systems, and preparedness and mitigation plans. The present contribution introduces the current activities of the Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The Center has the mission is to enhance the ability of countries in the region to deliver timely and quality SDS forecasts, observations, information and knowledge to users through an international partnership of research and operational communities.
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