Background
Women and their health care providers need a reliable answer to this important question: If a woman chooses to participate in regular mammography screening, then how much will this choice ...improve her chances of avoiding a death from breast cancer compared with women who choose not to participate?
Methods
To answer this question, we used comprehensive registries for population, screening history, breast cancer incidence, and disease‐specific death data in a defined population in Dalarna County, Sweden. The annual incidence of breast cancer was calculated along with the annual incidence of breast cancers that were fatal within 10 and within 11 to 20 years of diagnosis among women aged 40 to 69 years who either did or did not participate in mammography screening during a 39‐year period (1977‐2015). For an additional comparison, corresponding data are presented from 19 years of the prescreening period (1958‐1976). All patients received stage‐specific therapy according to the latest national guidelines, irrespective of the mode of detection.
Results
The benefit for women who chose to participate in an organized breast cancer screening program was a 60% lower risk of dying from breast cancer within 10 years after diagnosis (relative risk, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.34‐0.48) and a 47% lower risk of dying from breast cancer within 20 years after diagnosis (relative risk, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.44‐0.63) compared with the corresponding risks for nonparticipants.
Conclusions
Although all patients with breast cancer stand to benefit from advances in breast cancer therapy, the current results demonstrate that women who have participated in mammography screening obtain a significantly greater benefit from the therapy available at the time of diagnosis than do those who have not participated.
After 20 years of follow‐up, women who participate in mammography screening have a 47% lower risk of dying from breast cancer. Although all patients with breast cancer potentially can benefit from advances in breast cancer therapy, women who participate in mammography screening obtain a significantly greater benefit from the therapy available at the time of diagnosis than those who do not participate.
To estimate the long-term (29-year) effect of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in terms of both relative and absolute effects.
This study was carried out under the auspices of the ...Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. The board determined that, because randomization was at a community level and was to invitation to screening, informed verbal consent could be given by the participants when they attended the screening examination. A total of 133 065 women aged 40-74 years residing in two Swedish counties were randomized into a group invited to mammographic screening and a control group receiving usual care. Case status and cause of death were determined by the local trial end point committees and, independently, by an external committee. Mortality analysis was performed by using negative binomial regression.
There was a highly significant reduction in breast cancer mortality in women invited to screening according to both local end point committee data (relative risk RR = 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.56, 0.84; P < .0001) and consensus data (RR = 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.89; P = .002). At 29 years of follow-up, the number of women needed to undergo screening for 7 years to prevent one breast cancer death was 414 according to local data and 519 according to consensus data. Most prevented breast cancer deaths would have occurred (in the absence of screening) after the first 10 years of follow-up.
Invitation to mammographic screening results in a highly significant decrease in breast cancer-specific mortality. Evaluation of the full impact of screening, in particular estimates of absolute benefit and number needed to screen, requires follow-up times exceeding 20 years because the observed number of breast cancer deaths prevented increases with increasing time of follow-up.
Whether blood transfusion exacerbates cancer outcomes after surgery in humans remains inconclusive. We utilized a large cohort to investigate the effect of perioperative blood transfusion on cancer ...prognosis following colorectal cancer (CRC) resection. Patients with stage I through III CRC undergoing tumour resection at a tertiary medical center between 2005 and 2014 were identified and evaluated through August 2016. Propensity score matching was used to cancel out imbalances in patient characteristics. Postoperative disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analysed using Cox regression model. A total of 4,030 and 972 patients were analysed before and after propensity score matching. Cox regression analyses demonstrated blood transfusion associated with shorter DFS and OS before and after matching (hazard ratio: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.2-1.66 for DFS; 1.97, 95% CI: 1.6-2.43 for OS). Larger transfusion volume was linked to higher overall mortality (≤4 units vs. nil, HR = 1.58; >4 units vs. nil, HR = 2.32) but not more cancer recurrence. Preoperative anemia was not associated with decreased survival after adjusting covariates. Perioperative blood transfusion was associated with worse cancer prognosis after curative colorectal resection, independently of anemia status. Strategies aimed at minimizing transfusion requirements should be further developed.
Not only were social events and public facilities closed temporarily due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic, but health services also were affected greatly. In this commentary, the ...authors discuss how the national program of mammography screening in Taiwan was affected, even without known community‐acquired transmission.
Modeling overdetection resulting from screening often uses the conventional competing risk model. This model assigns screen‐detected cases dying from other causes as overdetection modeled by a ...one‐jump process, which may not be true for the censored overdetected cases. To relax this restrictive assumption, accommodate a finite Markov process for overdetection, and dispense with long‐term follow‐up until death, we propose a generalized Coxian phase‐type Markov process to distinguish the progressive latent multistate pathway from the nonprogressive (overdetected) latent multistate pathway. Various new likelihood functions were developed to estimate the transition parameters with the available data accrued at the time of diagnosis. The proportion of overdetected cancers by the cured model was further estimated by using parameters with and without distinguishing between the two latent pathways. While perturbation analyses were conducted by changing their parameters to assess their effects on overdetection, the results, including of asymptotic analyses, were very robust for an overdetection rate higher than 20% but not for low overdetection rates. These two scenarios were demonstrated by applying the Coxian phase‐type model to prostate cancer and breast cancer screening, yielding a substantial proportion of overdetected prostate cancer (60%) attributed to the prostate specific antigen test and a small fraction of overdetected breast cancer (3%) detected by mammography. This kind of variation in overdetection elucidated by the Coxian phase‐type Markov process provides new insights into the quantitative mechanisms producing overdetection, which is informative for evaluating the benefits and risks of various types of population‐based cancer screening programs.
Summary
Background
Patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are at risk of developing liver disease. Serum hepatitis B core‐related antigen (HBcrAg) is a new biomarker for intrahepatic ...templates for HBV replication.
Aim
To explore whether a high HBcrAg level is associated with increased risk of cirrhosis, especially in patients with intermediate viral load (HBV DNA 2000‐19 999 IU/mL) due to their moderate risk of disease progression.
Methods
A total of 1673 treatment‐naïve, non‐cirrhotic patients with negative hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level <40 U/L at baseline were enrolled. We explored the relationship between baseline levels of HBcrAg and cirrhosis development in all patients, and whether a higher HBcrAg level (<10 vs ≥10 KU/mL) was associated with an increased risk of disease progression in those with intermediate viral load.
Results
Of the 1673 patients, 104 developed cirrhosis after a mean follow‐up of 15.9 years. Higher HBcrAg levels were associated with increased incidence of cirrhosis, cirrhosis‐related complications, and liver‐related death. In 445 patients with intermediate viral load, the cirrhosis risk stratified by HBcrAg level of 10 KU/mL yielded a hazard ratio of 3.22 (95% CI: 1.61‐6.47). The risk stratification remained significant when exploring other pre‐cirrhosis endpoints, including HBeAg‐negative hepatitis, hepatitis flare, and HBV DNA >20 000 IU/mL after 3 years of follow‐up.
Conclusions
In HBeAg‐negative patients with normal ALT levels, higher HBcrAg levels are associated with increased risk of cirrhosis. Among those with intermediate viral load, HBcrAg <10 KU/mL defines a low‐risk group for disease progression.
Multistate Markov regression models used for quantifying the effect size of state‐specific covariates pertaining to the dynamics of multistate outcomes have gained popularity. However, the ...measurements of multistate outcome are prone to the errors of classification, particularly when a population‐based survey/research is involved with proxy measurements of outcome due to cost consideration. Such a misclassification may affect the effect size of relevant covariates such as odds ratio used in the field of epidemiology. We proposed a Bayesian measurement‐error‐driven hidden Markov regression model for calibrating these biased estimates with and without a 2‐stage validation design. A simulation algorithm was developed to assess various scenarios of underestimation and overestimation given nondifferential misclassification (independent of covariates) and differential misclassification (dependent on covariates). We applied our proposed method to the community‐based survey of androgenetic alopecia and found that the effect size of the majority of covariate was inflated after calibration regardless of which type of misclassification. Our proposed Bayesian measurement‐error‐driven hidden Markov regression model is practicable and effective in calibrating the effects of covariates on multistate outcome, but the prior distribution on measurement errors accrued from 2‐stage validation design is strongly recommended.
For its second decade, Taiwan's National 10‐Year Long‐Term Care Plan launched a policy of reinforcing home‐ and community‐based services (HCBSs) with a focus on reablement. This study aimed to (1) ...identify the distinct service use patterns of reablement‐embedded HCBS and (2) examine the effects of these service patterns on functional improvements among older care recipients, including among groups with different levels of care needs. We collected 2018 data from the Long‐Term Care Service Management System for care recipients in one county located in central Taiwan (N = 4735). Three recipient groups were assigned based on level of care needs. We included data on use of the following services: reablement, home care, respite care, applications for assistive devices and home environmental modifications, transportation to medical appointments and community‐based services. Outcome variables were measured by change scores between successive assessments of activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Latent class analysis and multivariate linear regression analyses were used to analyse relationships between use patterns, participant subgroups and outcomes. Four subgroups of HCBS use patterns were found. Care recipients with low care needs had greater potential to improve their physical function in ADL through reablement‐embedded HCBS. Care recipients in the groups with low and high care needs showed overall benefits in functional improvements in ADL and IADL from personal care–based HCBS. Care recipients in the community‐based and multiple services–based use pattern subgroups showed the least improvement in physical function. Our study indicates that the effects of reablement‐embedded HCBS use strategies may vary among older adults with different levels of care needs. We recommend further research to examine how to design HCBS with a reablement focus to better fit the needs of those with moderate and high levels of care needs.
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