The current application of local climate zones (LCZs) often ends with (inter)zonal comparation of land surface temperature (LST) or air temperature (AT). LST evaluation employs an enhanced concept of ...LCZs together with cluster analysis for LCZs grouped based on LST. The paper attempts to combine them into a complex approach derived from the case study on a medium-sized Central European city (Hradec Králové, the Czech Republic). In particular, the paper addresses the following. (i) The relation of LST and AT, when the daily course of temperature profile ranging clear off the surface up to 2 m was fitted by a rational 2D function. The obtained equation enables derivation of the AT from LST and vice versa. (ii) The differences in thermal response of LCZs based on LST or AT, where the highest average LST and average maximum LST show LCZs 10, 2, 3 and 8, i.e., with a significant proportion of artificial surfaces. The cluster of LCZs with a significant representation of vegetation, LCZs 9, B, D, A and G, have significantly lower LST. (iii) The contribution of LCZs to understanding of LST/AT relation and whether their specific relation could be expected in particular LCZs, when subsequent interaction assessment of LST and AT revealed statistically their significant correlation in LCZs for certain cases.
Forest ecosystems are faced with a variety of threats, including increasingly prolonged droughts and other abiotic stresses such as extreme high temperatures, very strong wind, invasive insect ...outbreaks, and the rapid spread of pathogens. The aim of the study was to define crucial abiotic stressors affecting Central Europe forest ecosystems and, with regard to their possible simultaneous effect, develop a universal method of multi-hazard evaluation. The method was then applied to the particular area of interest represented by part of the Czech Republic with forest land cover (12–19 ° E, 48–51 ° N). Based on National Threat Analysis, the most significant threats of natural origin with a close relationship to forest stability were identified as drought, high temperature, and wind gusts. Using suitable indicators, a level of their risk based on occurrence and consequences was estimated. The resulting combined level of risk, divided into five categories, was then spatially expressed on a grid map. The novelty of our paper lies in: (i) all relevant climatic data were combined and evaluated simultaneously with respect to the different level of risk, (ii) the developed methodological road map enables an application of the method for various conditions, and (iii) multiple hazards were estimated for the case study area.
Environmental degradation, for example, by wind erosion, is a serious global problem. Despite the enormous research on this topic, complex methods considering all relevant factors remain unpublished. ...The main intent of our paper is to develop a methodological road map to identify key soil–climatic conditions that make soil vulnerable to wind and demonstrate the road map in a case study using a relevant data source. Potential wind erosion (PWE) results from soil erosivity and climate erosivity. Soil erosivity directly reflects the wind-erodible fraction and indirectly reflects the soil-crust factor, vegetation-cover factor and surface-roughness factor. The climatic erosivity directly reflects the drought in the surface layer, erosive wind occurrence and clay soil-specific winter regime, making these soils vulnerable to wind erosion. The novelty of our method lies in the following: (1) all relevant soil–climatic data of wind erosion are combined; (2) different soil types “sand” and “clay” are evaluated simultaneously with respect to the different mechanisms of wind erosion; and (3) a methodological road map enables its application for various conditions. Based on our method, it is possible to set threshold values that, when exceeded, trigger landscape adjustments, more detailed in situ measurements or indicate the need for specific management.
The occurrence of drought during flowering (usually from the end of May to the beginning of June) is the most hazardous timing in terms of the possible negative impact of agricultural drought on ...winter wheat, which is the most cultivated crop in the Czech Republic (about 800000 ha). Lack of water, often accompanied by high temperatures, negatively affects the number of grains in the wheat ear and the tissue development of the developing grain, with consequent impacts on yield and quality of product. With the use of a) long-term time series of agrometeorological data (1961–2010), b) long-term phenological time series of winter wheat (1981–2010), and c) soil conditions data (available water capacity of soils of the Czech Republic) for the arable soil, the ratio of actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration for the period of 1961–2010, used as an indicator of agricultural drought (lack of water) for wheat, was calculated. The innovative aspect of this categorization of the territory of the Czech Republic according to the risk of occurrence of agricultural drought for winter wheat is considering drought from the aspect of the plant, i.e., evaluation based on the actual consumption of water by the vegetation. This is a very sophisticated procedure. Frequently, water content in soils data, presented as an output of some models, do not fully indicate the possible negative impacts on yield generation because the plants themselves are typically not considered. The method used in this study is universally applicable and allows comparisons of regions at the local, regional, and supra-regional levels. For estimation of the development of agronomic drought in the future, the basic water balances in the growing seasons of 1961–2010 and 2071–2100 were compared using a climate scenario. The forecast indicates a significant deterioration of agricultural drought in the region with probable direct impacts on agricultural production.
In recent years, there has been a noticeable uneven distribution of rainfall in Central Europe during the main vegetation season of most field crops. The rising air temperatures also increase the ...evapotranspiration demands of the environment and increase the frequency and length of heatwaves, which is a stress factor for plants. Using the GIS procedures, we identified the areas of significant abiotic risks occurring during the critical growth stages of spring barley (high air temperatures at the time of tillering and lack of soil moisture from the beginning of flowering to yellow ripening) with potential impact on grain yield in the Czech Republic. Unique datasets, including i) meteorological data, ii) phenological data, iii) pedological data, iv) land-use data, and v) geographic data, have been integrated and analysed using the sophisticated ArcGIS software environment. The method used in this study is universally applicable and allows comparisons at the local, regional, and supra-regional levels. The identification of risk areas will allow for a) finding tolerant varieties from problematic areas, b) locating the use of these varieties in risk areas and c) recommending and implementing adequate farming practices to reduce the impact of risk abiotic stressors on spring barley under current climate conditions. This will allow accurate estimation of weather impacts on spring barley grain yield in a particular year and precise application of countermeasures leading to reduced negative impacts on yield and the quality of spring barley production. Using the data and methods presented, we identified areas that correspond in good accordance to areas with spring barley yield deficits in dry years.
Pedologic-ecological estimation in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) means determination of land agronomic productivity and its economical pricing and is expressed as a five position numeral code ...and mapped as iso-lines. The first position of the code is the climatic region representing approximately the same conditions for agricultural plant growth and development. This climatic regionalization was based on the climatic data from 1901–1950. Currently, there is the need to update their existing zoning due to the technological progress of measurement and development of climate models including estimation of future climate. The aim of the paper is (i) to apply actual climatic data to climatic regionalization and (ii) to estimate what climatic conditions are relevant for actually valid climatic regions. The original methodology currently enables us to unequivocally classify only 17% of the entire territory of the Czech Republic (and 18% of Czech agricultural land). A substantial part of the territory does not fit neatly into individual climatic regions. Subsequently the actually valid ranges of climatic characteristics of individual climatic regions were determined. The GIS layers of individual climatic variables computed with data from 1961–2010 were one by one covered by GIS layers of individual climatic regions based on data from 1901–1950. Interval ranges of climatic region variables determined in this way are valid for the period 1961–2010. The upper limit of air temperature sum above 10 °C and annual air temperature in most of the climatic regions was significantly shifted up in 1961–2010. An increase in precipitation is noticeable in wet climatic regions. Moisture certainty in vegetation season and probability of dry vegetation are the most problematic in terms of Estimated Pedologic-Ecological Units (EPEU) climatic zoning. This should be taken into account when fixing the official soil price.
In recent years, two drought monitoring systems have been developed in the Czech Republic based on the SoilClim and AVISO soil moisture models. The former is run by Mendel University and Global ...Change Research Institute (CAS), while the latter, by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. SoilClim is based more on real soil properties and aimed primarily at agriculture, while AVISO complements the system with more theoretical presumptions about soil, showing, rather, climatological potential. Both soil moisture models were complemented by forecasts on a daily basis, taking meteorological inputs from NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and thus giving short- to mid-range outlooks up to 9 days ahead. Validation of the soil moisture and drought intensity prediction was performed and is presented in this article showing its prediction reliability and potential. In the analysis, we focus mainly on the past year, 2017. The tool has strong predictive power for soil moisture and drought intensity so it is suitable for farmers who need to make decisions about irrigation and production activities. The presented system is fully functional and can be applied in the coming years.
The aim of this work was the evaluation of drought severity development in the Czech Republic for the period 1971-2015 by the means of the Effective Drought Index (EDI). Annual values of the EDI ...index were determined using the method of effective precipitation for 14 localities spread throughout the Czech Republic (Central Europe). The seven categories were created according to obtained index values for the drought conditions determination for years during the period 1971-2015 through the percentile method. The annual index values were compared with acquired 2nd, 15th, 45th, 55th, 85th and 98th percentiles. Both the years with precipitation unfavourable conditions: 1972, 1973, 1984, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 2015 and the years with precipitation favourable conditions: 1977, 1987, 1995, 2001, 2002 and 2010 were determined. Precipitation conditions in the growing season from 61st to 180th day of the year were also analysed. This evaluation was conducted during the period 1971-2015 through the ten-day index values which were compared with acquired 2nd, 15th, 45th, 55th, 85th and 98th percentiles. Dry growing seasons occurred in 1973, 1974, 1976 and 1993. Wet growing seasons occurred in 1987, 2006 and 2010. Trend analysis of annual index values was performed through the Mann-Kendall test. Highly statistically significant increasing linear trends (P < 0.01) were found for four localities (Uherský Ostroh, Vysoká, Znojmo-Oblekovice and Žatec); statistically significant increasing trends (P < 0.05) were found for three localities (Brno-Chrlice, Lednice and Lípa). Based on the extrapolation of the trend, a slightly higher effective precipitation can be expected during the year in a substantial part of the country. However, these findings do not necessarily mean an optimal supply of agricultural land with water. Precipitation exhibits considerable unevenness of distribution through time. Given the increasing evapotranspiration demands of the environment their availability is limited.
Climatic variables defining climatic regions of estimated pedologic-ecological system (EPEU) were calculated based on fifty-year climatic data from 1961 to 2010. Obtained results were subsequently ...compared to intervals determining individual climatic regions defined by previous climatic data (1901-1950). In many agricultural intense areas sum of air temperature and mean air temperature exceeded upper limit. In terms of precipitation it is especially noticeable in the wet (higher) altitudes. Significant volatility was found for probability of dry periods from April to September. The values of the moisture certainty from April to September for the period 1961-2010 reached to several tens. In the final analysis, the only safe prediction is that the present and future are likely to be very different from the past. It is necessary to take it into account for actualization of EPEU methodology. Among the strongest arguments justifying the need of this actualization is in particular climate development since 1901, technological progress and improved measurement technology as well as automation and development of climate models coupled with simulations of complex characteristics and estimates of future climate. It is evident that the development of climate and other factors have an enormous impact on soil fertility. This should be also taken into consideration when fixing the official price. It is necessary to consider the possible replacement of the existing characteristics by more suitable (for example soil moisture balance). The findings might be summarized in few words: old climatic regions do not reflect actual climatic conditions.
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