The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss ...mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate
. Given the short-term nature of the observational record, it is difficult to assess the historical importance of this mass-loss trend. ...Unlike records of greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature, in which observations have been merged with palaeoclimate datasets, there are no comparably long records for rates of GIS mass change. Here we reveal unprecedented mass loss from the GIS this century, by placing contemporary and future rates of GIS mass loss within the context of the natural variability over the past 12,000 years. We force a high-resolution ice-sheet model with an ensemble of climate histories constrained by ice-core data
. Our simulation domain covers southwestern Greenland, the mass change of which is dominated by surface mass balance. The results agree favourably with an independent chronology of the history of the GIS margin
. The largest pre-industrial rates of mass loss (up to 6,000 billion tonnes per century) occurred in the early Holocene, and were similar to the contemporary (AD 2000-2018) rate of around 6,100 billion tonnes per century
. Simulations of future mass loss from southwestern GIS, based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios corresponding to low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration trajectories
, predict mass loss of between 8,800 and 35,900 billion tonnes over the twenty-first century. These rates of GIS mass loss exceed the maximum rates over the past 12,000 years. Because rates of mass loss from the southwestern GIS scale linearly
with the GIS as a whole, our results indicate, with high confidence, that the rate of mass loss from the GIS will exceed Holocene rates this century.
The last deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) from ∼21,000 to 13,000 yr ago is well-constrained by several hundred 10Be and 14C ages. The subsequent retreat history, however, is ...established primarily from minimum-limiting 14C ages and incomplete Baltic-Sea varve records, leaving a substantial fraction of final SIS retreat history poorly constrained. Here we develop a high-resolution chronology for the final deglaciation of the SIS based on 79 10Be cosmogenic exposure dates sampled along three transects spanning southern to northern Sweden and Finland. Combining this new chronology with existing 10Be ages on deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum shows that rates of SIS margin retreat were strongly influenced by deglacial millennial-scale climate variability and its effect on surface mass balance, with regional modulation of retreat associated with dynamical controls. Ice-volume estimates constrained by our new chronology suggest that the SIS contributed ∼8 m sea-level equivalent to global sea-level rise between ∼14.5 ka and 10 ka. Final deglaciation was largely complete by ∼10.5 ka, with highest rates of sea-level rise occurring during the Bølling–Allerød, a 50% decrease during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid increase during the early Holocene. Combining our SIS volume estimates with estimated contributions from other remaining Northern Hemisphere ice sheets suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) contributed 14.4±5.9 m to global sea-level rise since ∼13 ka. This new constraint supports those studies that indicate that an ice volume of 15 m or more of equivalent sea-level rise was lost from the AIS during the last deglaciation.
•New 10Be ages constrain the final deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet during the Holocene.•The SIS responded rapidly to deglacial millennial scale climate change.•With the new SIS chronology, a Northern Hemisphere sea level budget is created.•This new budget shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet contributed ∼14 m of sea-level rise since ∼13 ka.
Geologic archives constraining the variability of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) during the Holocene provide targets for ice sheet models to test sensitivities to variations in past climate and model ...formulation. Even as data–model comparisons are becoming more common, many models simulating the behavior of the GrIS during the past rely on meshes with coarse horizontal resolutions (≥10 km). In this study, we explore the impact of model resolution on the simulated nature of retreat across southwestern Greenland during the Holocene. Four simulations are performed using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): three that use a uniform mesh and horizontal mesh resolutions of 20, 10, and 5 km, and one that uses a nonuniform mesh with a resolution ranging from 2 to 15 km. We find that the simulated retreat can vary significantly between models with different horizontal resolutions based on how well the bed topography is resolved. In areas of low topographic relief, the horizontal resolution plays a negligible role in simulated differences in retreat, with each model instead responding similarly to retreat driven by surface mass balance (SMB). Conversely, in areas where the bed topography is complex and high in relief, such as fjords, the lower-resolution models (10 and 20 km) simulate unrealistic retreat that occurs as ice surface lowering intersects bumps in the bed topography that would otherwise be resolved as troughs using the higher-resolution grids. Our results highlight the important role that high-resolution grids play in simulating retreat in areas of complex bed topography, but also suggest that models using nonuniform grids can save computational resources through coarsening the mesh in areas of noncomplex bed topography where the SMB predominantly drives retreat. Additionally, these results emphasize that care must be taken with ice sheet models when tuning model parameters to match reconstructed margins, particularly for lower-resolution models in regions where complex bed topography is poorly resolved.
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models ...participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Plain Language Summary
The melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) will result in higher sea level in the future. How sea level will change depends in part on how the atmosphere and ocean warm and how this affects the ice sheets. We use multiple ice sheet models to estimate possible future sea levels under climate scenarios from the models participating in the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), which generally indicate a warmer world that the previous effort (CMIP5). Our results show that the possible future sea level change due Antarctica is similar for CMIP5 and CMIP6, but the warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models leads to higher sea‐level contributions from Greenland by the end of the century.
Key Points
We compare results from an ice sheet model inter‐comparison forced using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 and phase 5 climate projections
Projected sea level at 2100 is higher for Greenland under CMIP6 scenarios than CMIP5, but similar for Antarctica under both scenarios
CMIP6 warmer climate results in increased Greenland surface melt while increased snowfall mitigates loss from ocean warming for Antarctica
Paleoclimate proxies are being used in conjunction with ice sheet modeling experiments to determine how the Greenland ice sheet responded to past changes, particularly during the last deglaciation. ...Although these comparisons have been a critical component in our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet sensitivity to past warming, they often rely on modeling experiments that favor minimizing computational expense over increased model physics. Over Paleoclimate timescales, simulating the thermal structure of the ice sheet has large implications on the modeled ice viscosity, which can feedback onto the basal sliding and ice flow. To accurately capture the thermal field, models often require a high number of vertical layers. This is not the case for the stress balance computation, however, where a high vertical resolution is not necessary. Consequently, since stress balance and thermal equations are generally performed on the same mesh, more time is spent on the stress balance computation than is otherwise necessary. For these reasons, running a higher-order ice sheet model (e.g., Blatter-Pattyn) over timescales equivalent to the paleoclimate record has not been possible without incurring a large computational expense. To mitigate this issue, we propose a method that can be implemented within ice sheet models, whereby the vertical interpolation along the z axis relies on higher-order polynomials, rather than the traditional linear interpolation. This method is tested within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) using quadratic and cubic finite elements for the vertical interpolation on an idealized case and a realistic Greenland configuration. A transient experiment for the ice thickness evolution of a single-dome ice sheet demonstrates improved accuracy using the higher-order vertical interpolation compared to models using the linear vertical interpolation, despite having fewer degrees of freedom. This method is also shown to improve a model's ability to capture sharp thermal gradients in an ice sheet particularly close to the bed, when compared to models using a linear vertical interpolation. This is corroborated in a thermal steady-state simulation of the Greenland ice sheet using a higher-order model. In general, we find that using a higher-order vertical interpolation decreases the need for a high number of vertical layers, while dramatically reducing model runtime for transient simulations. Results indicate that when using a higher-order vertical interpolation, runtimes for a transient ice sheet relaxation are upwards of 5 to 7 times faster than using a model which has a linear vertical interpolation, and this thus requires a higher number of vertical layers to achieve a similar result in simulated ice volume, basal temperature, and ice divide thickness. The findings suggest that this method will allow higher-order models to be used in studies investigating ice sheet behavior over paleoclimate timescales at a fraction of the computational cost than would otherwise be needed for a model using a linear vertical interpolation.
Numerical simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over geologic
timescales can greatly improve our knowledge of the critical factors driving
GrIS demise during climatically warm periods, which ...has clear relevance for
better predicting GrIS behavior over the upcoming centuries. To assess the
fidelity of these modeling efforts, however, observational constraints of
past ice sheet change are needed. Across southwestern Greenland, geologic
records detail Holocene ice retreat across both terrestrial-based and marine-terminating environments, providing an ideal opportunity to rigorously
benchmark model simulations against geologic reconstructions of ice sheet
change. Here, we present regional ice sheet modeling results using the
Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) of Holocene ice sheet history
across an extensive fjord region in southwestern Greenland covering the
landscape around the Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) glacier and extending
outward along the 200 km Nuup Kangerula (Godthåbsfjord). Our
simulations, forced by reconstructions of Holocene climate and recently
implemented calving laws, assess the sensitivity of ice retreat across the
KNS region to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. Our simulations reveal that
the geologically reconstructed ice retreat across the terrestrial landscape
in the study area was likely driven by fluctuations in surface mass balance
in response to Early Holocene warming – and was likely not influenced
significantly by the response of adjacent outlet glaciers to calving and
ocean-induced melting. The impact of ice calving within fjords, however,
plays a significant role by enhancing ice discharge at the terminus, leading
to interior thinning up to the ice divide that is consistent with
reconstructed magnitudes of Early Holocene ice thinning. Our results,
benchmarked against geologic constraints of past ice-margin change, suggest
that while calving did not strongly influence Holocene ice-margin migration
across terrestrial portions of the KNS forefield, it strongly impacted
regional mass loss. While these results imply that the implementation and
resolution of ice calving in paleo-ice-flow models is important towards
making more robust estimations of past ice mass change, they also illustrate
the importance these processes have on contemporary and future long-term ice
mass change across similar fjord-dominated regions of the GrIS.
This study uses reanalysis data from ECMWF ERA-Interim and GCM output from the CCSM3 to investigate how sea ice and clouds interact locally (within individual grid boxes) and whether similar ...variability between the two datasets is captured. During autumn (October), the vertically integrated low cloud amount increases over increased sea ice in the reanalysis, but decreases in the GCM output. Closer inspection, however, reveals that both datasets have more low cloud cover over increased sea ice within the lower boundary layer (1000–925hPa for the reanalysis and 1000–975hPa for the GCM output), but they differ in their integrated response within the lower troposphere. These results highlight the differences between the datasets and show the importance of understanding where cloud changes occur, because clouds vary in their effect on the radiation budget as a function of height.
Despite elevated summer insolation forcing during the early Holocene, global ice sheets retained nearly half of their volume from the Last Glacial Maximum, as indicated by deglacial records of global ...mean sea level (GMSL). Partitioning the GMSL rise among potential sources requires accurate dating of ice-sheet extent to estimate ice-sheet volume. Here, we date the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with 10Be surface exposure ages for the Labrador Dome, the largest of the remnant Laurentide ice domes during the Holocene. We show that the Labrador Dome deposited moraines during North Atlantic cold events at ∼10.3 ka, 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka, suggesting that these regional climate events helped stabilize the retreating Labrador Dome in the early Holocene. After Hudson Bay became seasonally ice free at ∼8.2 ka, the majority of Laurentide ice-sheet melted abruptly within a few centuries. We demonstrate through high-resolution regional climate model simulations that the thermal properties of a seasonally ice-free Hudson Bay would have increased Laurentide ice-sheet ablation and thus contributed to the subsequent rapid Labrador Dome retreat. Finally, our new 10Be chronology indicates full Laurentide ice-sheet had completely deglaciated by 6.7 ± 0.4 ka, which re quires that Antarctic ice sheets contributed 3.6–6.5 m to GMSL rise since 6.3–7.1 ka.
•New 10Be surface exposure chronology of final Laurentide ice-sheet retreat.•Laurentide ice deposited moraines during century-scale North Atlantic cold events.•Rapid ice-volume loss shortly after the removal of ice over Hudson Bay.•Regional climate model shows an open Hudson Bay as an additional heat source.•Laurentide deglaciation constrains Antarctic Holocene sea-level rise contribution.
Studying the retreat of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) during the last deglaciation represents an important opportunity to understand how ice sheets outside the polar regions have responded to ...deglacial changes in temperature and large-scale atmospheric circulation. At the northernmost extension of the PIS during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Chilean Lake District (CLD) was influenced by the southern westerly winds (SWW), which strongly modulated the hydrologic and heat budgets of the region. Despite progress in constraining the nature and timing of deglacial ice retreat across this area, considerable uncertainty in the glacial history still exists due to a lack of geologic constraints on past ice margin change. Where the glacial chronology is lacking, ice sheet models can provide important insight into our understanding of the characteristics and drivers of deglacial ice retreat. Here we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to simulate the LGM and last deglacial ice history of the PIS across the CLD at high spatial resolution (450 m). We present a transient simulation of ice margin change across the last deglaciation using climate inputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) Trace-21ka experiment. At the LGM, the simulated ice extent across the CLD agrees well with the most comprehensive reconstruction of PIS ice history (PATICE). Coincident with deglacial warming, ice retreat ensues after 19 ka, with large-scale ice retreat occurring across the CLD between 18 and 16.5 ka. By 17 ka, the northern portion of the CLD becomes ice free, and by 15 ka, ice only persists at high elevations as mountain glaciers and small ice caps. Our simulated ice history agrees well with PATICE for early deglacial ice retreat but diverges at and after 15 ka, where the geologic reconstruction suggests the persistence of an ice cap across the southern CLD until 10 ka. However, given the high uncertainty in the geologic reconstruction of the PIS across the CLD during the later deglaciation, this work emphasizes a need for improved geologic constraints on past ice margin change. While deglacial warming drove the ice retreat across this region, sensitivity tests reveal that modest variations in wintertime precipitation (∼10 %) can modulate the pacing of ice retreat by up to 2 ka, which has implications when comparing simulated outputs of ice margin change to geologic reconstructions. While we find that TraCE-21ka simulates large-scale changes in the SWW across the CLD that are consistent with regional paleoclimate reconstructions, the magnitude of the simulated precipitation changes is smaller than what is found in proxy records. From our sensitivity analysis, we can deduce that larger anomalies in precipitation, as found in paleoclimate proxies, may have had a large impact on modulating the magnitude and timing of deglacial ice retreat. This fact highlights an additional need for better constraints on the deglacial change in strength, position, and extent of the SWW as it relates to understanding the drivers of deglacial PIS behavior.
PDF
