Zhejiang, ranked in the top three in HFMD (hand, foot, and mouth disease) incidence, is located in the Yangtze River Delta region of southeast China. Since 2016, the EV71 vaccine has been promoted in ...Zhejiang Province. This study aimed to investigate the trend and seasonal variation characteristics of HFMD from 2010 to 2021 and estimate the reduction in enterovirus 71 infection after vaccine use. The data on HFMD cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2010 to December 2021 were obtained from this network system. Individual information on cases and deaths was imported, and surveillance information, including demographic characteristics and temporal distributions, was computed by the system. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe continuous changes in the incidence trend. The BSTS (Bayesian structural time-series models) model was used to estimate the monthly number of cases from 2017 to 2021 based on the observed monthly incidence during 2010-2016 by accounting for seasonality and long-term trends. The seasonal variation characteristics of HFMD pathogens were detected by wavelet analysis. From 2010 to 2021, the annual incidence rate fluctuated between 98.81 cases per 100,000 in 2020 and 435.63 cases per 100,000 in 2018, and 1711 severe HFMD cases and 106 fatal cases were reported in Zhejiang Province, China. The annual percent change (APC) in EV71 cases was -30.72% (95% CI: -45.10 to -12.50) from 2016 to 2021. The wavelet transform of total incidence and number of cases of the three pathogens all showed significant periodicity on the 1-year scale. The average 2-year scale periodicity was significant for the total incidence, EV71 cases and Cox A16 cases, but the other enterovirus cases showed significant periodicity on the 30-month scale. The 6-month scale periodicity was significant for the total incidence, EV71 case and Cox A16 case but not for the other enteroviruses case. The relative error percentage of the performance of the BSTS model was 0.3%. The estimated number of cases from 2017 to 2021 after the EV-A71 vaccines were used was 9422, and the reduction in the number of cases infected with the EV71 virus was 73.43% compared to 70.80% when the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 was excluded. Since 2010, the incidence of EV71 infections has shown an obvious downward trend. All types of viruses showed significant periodicity on the 1-year scale. The periodicity of the biennial peak is mainly related to EV71 and Cox A16 before 2017 and other enteroviruses since 2018. The half-year peak cycle of HFMD was mainly caused by EV71 and Cox A6 infection. The expected incidence will be 2.76 times(include the cases of 2020) and 2.43 times(exclude the cases of 2020) higher than the actual value assuming that the measures of vaccination are not taken. EV71 vaccines are very effective and should be administered in the age window between 5 months and 5 years.
Zhejiang Province has the fifth-highest incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in China. While the top four provinces are all located in northern and central China, only ...Zhejiang Province is located in the Yangtze River Delta region of southeast China. This study was undertaken to identify the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Zhejiang from 2011 to 2018.
The epidemic data from SFTS cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2011 to December 2018 were obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. Meteorological data were collected from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. A multivariate time series model was used to analyze the heterogeneity of spatial-temporal transmission of the disease. Random forest analysis was performed to detect the importance of meteorological factors and the dose-response association of the incidence of SFTS with these factors.
In total, 412 SFTS cases (49 fatal) were reported from January 2011 to December 2018 in Zhejiang Province, China. The number of SFTS cases and the number of affected counties increased year by year. The case fatality rate in Zhejiang Province was 11.89%, which was the highest in China. Elderly patients and farmers were the most affected. The total effect values of the autoregressive component, spatiotemporal component and endemic component of the model in all ranges were 0.4580, 0.0377 and 0.0137, respectively. There was obvious heterogeneity across counties for the mean values of the spatiotemporal component and the autoregressive component. The autoregressive component was obviously the main factor driving the occurrence of SFTS, followed by the spatiotemporal component. The importance scores of the monthly mean pressure, mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean two-minute wind speed, duration of sunshine and precipitation were 10.64, 8.34, 8.16, 6.37, 5.35 and 2.81, respectively. The relationship between these factors and the incidence of SFTS is complicated and nonlinear. A suitable range of meteorological factors for this disease was also detected.
The autoregressive and spatiotemporal components played an important role in driving the transmission of SFTS. Targeted preventive efforts should be made in different areas based on the main component contributing to the epidemic. For most areas, early measures several months ahead of the suitable season for the occurrence of SFTS should be implemented. The level of reporting and diagnosis of this disease should be further improved.
The catalytic partial oxidation of methane (POM) presents a promising technology for synthesizing syngas. However, it faces severe over-oxidation over catalyst surface. Attempts to modify metal ...surfaces by incorporating a secondary metal towards C-H bond activation of CH
with moderate O* adsorption have remained the subject of intense research yet challenging. Herein, we report that high catalytic performance for POM can be achieved by the regulation of O* occupation in the atomically dispersed (AD) MoNi alloy, with over 95% CH
conversion and 97% syngas selectivity at 800 °C. The combination of ex-situ/in-situ characterizations, kinetic analysis and DFT (density functional theory) calculations reveal that Mo-Ni dual sites in AD MoNi alloy afford the declined O
poisoning on Ni sites with rarely weaken CH
activation for partial oxidation pathway following the combustion reforming reaction (CRR) mechanism. These results underscore the effectiveness of CH
turnovers by the design of atomically dispersed alloys with tunable O* adsorption.
In China, waterborne outbreaks of infectious diarrheal disease mainly occur in schools, and contaminated well water is a common source of pathogens. The objective of this review was to present the ...attack rates, durations of outbreak, pathogens of infectious diarrheal disease, and sanitary conditions of wells in primary and secondary schools in China, and to analyze risk factors and susceptibility of school children.
Relevant articles and reports were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program. Essential information, including urban/rural areas, school types, attack rates, pathogens, durations of outbreak, report intervals, and interventions were extracted from the eligible articles. Wilcoxon signed-rank test, Kruskal–Wallis H test, and Spearman correlation test were conducted in statistical analyses. Sex- and age-specific attack rate ratios were calculated as pooled effect sizes.
We screened 2188 articles and retrieved data of 85 outbreaks from 1987 to 2014. Attack rates of outbreaks in rural areas (median, 12.63 cases/100 persons) and in primary schools (median, 14.54 cases/100 persons) were higher than those in urban areas (median, 5.62 cases/100 persons) and in secondary schools (median, 8.74 cases/100 persons) (P = 0.004 and P = 0.013, respectively). Shigella, pathogenic Escherichia coli, and norovirus were the most common pathogens. Boys tended toward higher attack rates than girls (sex-specific attack rate ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.00–1.29, P = 0.05). Unsanitary conditions of water wells were reported frequently, and unhealthy behavior habits were common in students.
School children were susceptible to waterborne disease in China. Chinese government should make efforts to improve access to safe water in schools. Health education promotion and conscientiousness of school leaders and teachers should be enhanced.
•School children were susceptible to waterborne disease in China.•Attack rates of rural or primary schools were high.•Boys trended toward higher risk than girls.•Unsanitary conditions of water wells were reported frequently.
Background
Zhejiang Province is one of the five provinces in China that had the highest incidence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Zhejiang, ranked fourth highest in COVID-19 incidence, is ...located in the Yangtze River Delta region of southeast China. This study was undertaken to identify the space-time characteristics of COVID-19 in Zhejiang.
Methods
Data on COVID-19 cases in Zhejiang Province from January to July 2020 were obtained from this network system. Individual information on cases and deaths was imported, and surveillance information, including demographic characteristics and geographic and temporal distributions, was computed by the system. The Knox test was used to identify possible space-time interactions to test whether cases that are close in distance were also close in time. Network analysis was performed to determine the relationship among the cases in a transmission community and to try to identify the key nodes.
Results
In total, 1475 COVID-19 cases and 1 fatal case were reported from January to July 2020 in Zhejiang Province, China. Most of the cases occurred before February 15
th
, which accounted for 90.10%. The imported cases increased and became the main risk in Zhejiang Province after February 2020. The risk areas showed strong heterogeneity according to the Knox test. The areas at short distances within 1 kilometer and at brief periods within 5 days presented relatively high risk. The numbers of subcommunities for the four clusters were 12, 9, 6 and 4. There was obvious heterogeneity in the modularity of subcommunities. The maximum values of the node centrality for the four clusters were 2.9474, 4.3706, 4.1080 and 2.7500.
Conclusions
COVID-19 was brought under control over a short period in Zhejiang Province. Imported infections from outside of mainland China then became a new challenge. The effects of spatiotemporal interaction exhibited interval heterogeneity. The characteristics of transmission showed short range and short term risks. The importance to the cluster of each case was detected, and the key patients were identified. It is suggested that we should focus on key patients in complex conditions and in situations with limited control resources.
As more and more sensor data have been collected, automated detection, and diagnosis systems are urgently needed to lessen the increasing monitoring burden and reduce the risk of system faults. A ...plethora of researches have been done on anomaly detection, event detection, anomaly diagnosis respectively. However, none of current approaches can explore all these respects in one unified framework. In this work, a Multi-Task Learning based Encoder-Decoder (MTLED) which can simultaneously detect anomalies, diagnose anomalies, and detect events is proposed. In MTLED, feature matrix is introduced so that features are extracted for each time point and point-wise anomaly detection can be realized in an end-to-end way. Anomaly diagnosis and event detection share the same feature matrix with anomaly detection in the multi-task learning framework and also provide important information for system monitoring. To train such a comprehensive detection and diagnosis system, a large-scale multivariate time series dataset which contains anomalies of multiple types is generated with simulation tools. Extensive experiments on the synthetic dataset verify the effectiveness of MTLED and its multi-task learning framework, and the evaluation on a real-world dataset demonstrates that MTLED can be used in other application scenarios through transfer learning.
The number of dengue fever (DF) cases and the number of dengue outbreaks have increased in recent years in Zhejiang Province, China. An unexpected dengue outbreak was reported in Hangzhou in 2017 and ...caused more than one thousand dengue cases. This study was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of the actual control measures, estimate the proportion of inapparent infections during this outbreak and simulate epidemic development based on different levels of control measures taking inapparent infections into consideration.
The epidemic data of dengue cases in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, in 2017 and the number of the people exposed to the outbreaks were obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. The epidemic without intervention measures was used to estimate the unknown parameters. A susceptible-exposed-infectious/inapparent-recovered (SEIAR) model was used to estimate the effectiveness of the control interventions. The inapparent infections were also evaluated at the same time.
In total, 1137 indigenous dengue cases were reported in Hangzhou in 2017. The number of indigenous dengue cases was estimated by the SEIAR model. This number was predicted to reach 6090 by the end of November 2, 2017, if no control measures were implemented. The total number of reported cases was reduced by 81.33% in contrast to the estimated incidence without intervention. The number of average daily inapparent cases was 10.18 times higher than the number of symptomatic cases. The earlier and more rigorously the vector control interventions were implemented, the more effective they were. The results showed that implementing vector control continuously for more than twenty days was more effective than every few days of implementation. Case isolation is not sufficient enough for epidemic control and only reduced the incidence by 38.10% in contrast to the estimated incidence without intervention, even if case isolation began seven days after the onset of the first case.
The practical control interventions in the outbreaks that occurred in Hangzhou City were highly effective. The proportion of inapparent infections was large, and it played an important role in transmitting the disease during this epidemic. Early, continuous and high efficacy vector control interventions are necessary to limit the development of a dengue epidemic. Timely diagnosis and case reporting are important in the intervention at an early stage of the epidemic.
To ensure the safety and stability of spacecrafts of which thousands of telemetry parameters are monitored, fast and accurate response to anomalies or potential hazards is very important and ...challenging. This task becomes more difficult when the obtained telemetry data are sampled at irregular intervals. Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), as time series prediction models, have been applied to satellite anomaly detection and show a promising prospect. However, the anomaly detection method merely based on LSTM does not show a stable performance: when the prediction performance of LSTM is not satisfying, the performance of subsequent anomaly detection will be affected, and the impact is augmented when the telemetry data are of irregular intervals. In order to solve these problems, time intervals are introduced into the LSTM model directly. Besides that, a novel anomaly detection method, Detecting Anomalies using LSTM and Ensembled One-Class Support Vector Machines (DALEO) is proposed to further improve the performance of anomaly detection. In DALEO, multiple One-Class Support Vector Machines are used to obtain the ensemble outputs of high precision and high recall respectively. These ensemble outputs are integrated into the two stages of the anomaly detection method with LSTM in a novel way. Extensive empirical studies on real-world datasets of satellites and space shuttles demonstrate that DALEO improves the performance of anomaly detection significantly when dealing with telemetry data with irregular intervals.
The five-wave epidemic of H7N9 in China emerged in the second half of 2016. This study aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics among the five waves, estimating the possible infected ...cases and inferring the extent of the possible epidemic in the areas that have not reported cases before.
The data for the H7N9 cases from Zhejiang Province between 2013 and 2017 was obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. The start date of each wave was 16 March 2013, 1 July 2013, 1 July 2014, 1 July 2015 and 1 July 2016. The F test or Pearson's chi-square test were used to compare the characteristics of the five waves. Global and local autocorrelation analysis was carried out to identify spatial autocorrelations. Ordinary kriging interpolation was analyzed to estimate the number of human infections with H7N9 virus and to infer the extent of infections in the areas with no cases reported before.
There were 45, 94, 45, 34 and 80 cases identified from the first wave to the fifth, respectively. The death rate was significantly different among the five waves of epidemics (χ2 = 10.784, P = 0.029). The age distribution (F = 0.903, P = 0.462), gender (χ2 = 2.674, P = 0.614) and occupation(χ2 = 19.764, P = 0.407) were similar in each period. Most of the cases were males and farmers. A significant trend (χ2 = 70.328, P<0.001) was identified that showed a growing proportion of rural cases. There were 31 high-high clusters and 3 high-low clusters at the county level among the five waves and 12, 8, 2, 9 and 3 clusters in each wave, respectively. The total cases infected with the H7N9 virus were far more than those that have been reported now, and the affected areas continue to expand. The epidemic in the north of Zhejiang Province persisted in all five waves. Since the second wave, the virus spread to the south areas and central areas. There was an obvious decline in the infected cases in the urban areas, and the epidemics mostly occurred in the rural areas after the fourth wave. The epidemic was relatively dispersed since the third wave had fewer than two cases in most of the areas and showed a reinforcing trend again in the fifth wave.
The study revealed that there were few differences in the epidemiologic characteristics among the five waves of the epidemic. However, the areas where the possible epidemic circulated was larger than reported. The epidemic cross-regional expansion continued and mostly occurred in rural areas. Continuous closure of the live poultry market (LPM) is strongly recommended in both rural and urban areas. Illegal and scattered live poultry trading, especially in rural areas, must be forbidden. It is suggested too that a more rigorous management be performed on live poultry trade and wholesale across the area. Health education, surveillance of cases and pathogenicity should also be strengthened.
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