International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to be net-zero by midcentury. Such a goal will require both drastically reducing emissions from ...high-income countries and avoiding large increases in emissions from still-developing countries. Yet most analyses focus on rich-country emissions reductions, with much less attention to trends in low-income countries. Here, we use a Kaya framework to analyze patterns and trends in CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in Africa between 1990 and 2017. In total, African CO2 emissions were just 4% of global fossil fuel emissions in 2017, or 1185 MtCO2, having grown by 4.6% yr−1 on average over the period 1990–2017 (cf the global growth rate of 2.2% yr−1 over the same period). In 2017, 10 countries accounted for about 87% of the continent’s emissions. Despite modest recent reductions in some countries’ CO2 emissions, projections of rapid growth of population and per capita GDP will drive future increases in emissions. Indeed, if the continent-wide average growth rate of 2010–2017 persists, by 2030 Africa’s emissions will have risen by ∼30% (to 1545 MtCO2). Moreover, if increases in carbon intensity also continue, Africa’s emissions would be substantially higher. In either case, such growth is at odds with international climate goals. Achieving such goals will require that the energy for African countries’ development instead come from non-emitting sources.
Abstract
The use of recreational ecosystem services is highly dependent on the surrounding environmental and climate conditions. Due to this dependency, future recreational opportunities provided by ...nature are at risk from climate change. To understand how climate change will impact recreation we need to understand current recreational patterns, but traditional data is limited and low resolution. Fortunately, social media data presents an opportunity to overcome those data limitations and machine learning offers a tool to effectively use that big data. We use data from the social media site Flickr as a proxy for recreational visitation and random forest to model the relationships between social, environmental, and climate factors and recreation for the peak season (summer) in California. We then use the model to project how non-urban recreation will change as the climate changes. Our model shows that current patterns are exacerbated in the future under climate change, with currently popular summer recreation areas becoming more suitable and unpopular summer recreation areas becoming less suitable for recreation. Our model results have land management implications as recreation regions that see high visitation consequently experience impacts to surrounding ecosystems, ecosystem services, and infrastructure. This information can be used to include climate change impacts into land management plans to more effectively provide sustainable nature recreation opportunities for current and future generations. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that crowdsourced data and machine learning offer opportunities to better integrate socio-ecological systems into climate impacts research and more holistically understand climate change impacts to human well-being.
Global change is currently impacting ecosystems and their contributions to people (i.e. ecosystem services). These impacts have consequences for societies and human well-being, especially in Africa. ...Historically, efforts have focused on assessing global change from a social or biophysical perspective, treating them as separate entities. Yet, our understanding of impacts to social-ecological systems remains limited, particularly in the Global South, due to a lack of data, tools, and approaches accounting for social and ecological aspects of ecosystem services. This is especially relevant for cultural ecosystem services as they are less tangible. We use a simple indicator and important provider of a multitude of cultural ecosystem services, birding, to understand how climate, biodiversity, and land use change will impact cultural ecosystem services across Africa. We explore how emerging tools and data can overcome limitations in mapping and modeling cultural ecosystem services, particularly in analyzing human preferences and behavior at large spatiotemporal scales and in data-poor regions. Leveraging crowdsourced data from eBird and using machine learning techniques we map and model recreational birding to assess the underlying social-ecological relationships and the impact of future climate and environmental change. We show that bird species richness, protected areas, accessibility, and max temperature contribute most to birding suitability across the continent. Further, we show spatial shifts in the suitability of birding under three future climate scenarios (SSP126, 370, and 585). Models suggest climate and biodiversity change will increasingly constrain the flow of birding related cultural ecosystem services across Africa. This has implications for human-nature interactions, development of countries, management of protected areas, and overall human well-being in the future. More generally, we highlight opportunities for crowdsourced datasets and machine learning to integrate non-material ecosystem services in models and thus, enhance the understanding of future impacts to ecosystem services and human well-being.
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•ML and crowdsourced data help model non-linearities of CES in understudied regions.•Interactions of climate, biodiversity, environmental, and social factors lead to CES flows.•Climate and biodiversity changes constrain future CES flows in Africa.•Regions of high CES use currently tend to be the most vulnerable in the future.•Our approach can be used in regions across the world to better understand CES.
In this study we investigate whether the increasing investment in smallholder oil palm plantations that contributes to deforestation is motivated by financial gains or other factors. We evaluate the ...financial viability of smallholder farmers selling fresh fruit bunches (FFBs) to intermediaries or agro-industrial companies with mills, or processing the FFBs in artisanal mills to produce palm oil. We use data collected in four oil palm production basins in Cameroon and carried out a life cycle assessment of oil palm cultivation and CPO production to understand financial gains. We use payback period (PBP), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV) for 1 ha of oil palm plantation over 28 years at a base discount rate of 8% to asses viability. Our results show that smallholders make more money processing their FFBs in artisanal mills to produce CPO than selling FFBs to intermediaries or agro-industrial companies with mills. The sensitivity analysis show that land ownership is the single most important parameter in the profitability of investment in palm oil cultivation and trade. In addition to land cost, smallholders suffer from borrowing at high interest rates, high field management costs, while recording low on-farm FFB/processing yields. To improve the financial viability of smallholders investing in oil palm cultivation, measures are needed to encourage them to access land, get loans at reduced interest rates, reduce the cost of field management, adopt good agricultural practices to improve on-farm FFB/processing yields, as well as to generate additional revenue from the sale of other products.
Understanding the benefits provided by restoring overstocked forests is crucial to guiding the choice of management actions, policy initiatives, and investments by beneficiaries, that is, monetizing ...ecosystem services. Using stakeholder‐based fuzzy cognitive mapping, collected through workshops with natural‐resource professionals, we mapped the interactions of ecosystem services and the perceived effects of management actions on them. In line with current concerns in the California study area, we found that fire protection was perceived as central (i.e., having a high degree of congruence with other ecosystem services) with improved fire protection providing important secondary effects on other ecosystem services, notably air‐quality protection, provision of habitat, and carbon storage. Forest restoration involves multiple fuels‐reduction actions, which were perceived as benefiting fire protection, with subsets also offering strong benefits to other ecosystem services. Prescribed burning, defensible‐space creation, understory thinning, and replanting showed particularly large differences in effects when accounting for interactions of ecosystem services. Resource managers and other nonmanager professionals prioritized similar ecosystem services, with the second group placing more importance on interactions between different ecosystem services. Ecosystem‐service valuation that includes interactions offers a salient, credible, and legitimate approach to inform multi‐benefit forest management, particularly where partnerships must monetize some of those benefits to finance critical landscape restoration.
Increased anthropogenic pressure, invasive alien species and climate change, among other factors, continue to negatively impact and degrade the planet’s ecosystems and natural environment. ...studies ...in this collection demonstrate complex interactions between wild and domestic herbivory, controls on grazing intensity and spatial ecological variables, making generalizations difficult and stressing the need for context-specific studies and understanding to guide management of disturbance regimes. ...they also show that individuals of the dominant tree species in this system, Acacia drepanolobium, greatly reduce their defense in the absence of browsers; hence the sudden arrival of these herbivores resulted in far greater elephant damage than for conspecifics in adjacent plots that had been continually exposed to herbivory. 17 test seed pretreatment methods to enhance vegetation establishment from direct seeding and illustrate how a range of life stage transitions including germination, emergence and survival of native grass species used in restoration programs can be improved by seed coating with salicylic
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•We explore the utility of social media and machine learning to fill gaps in mapping ecosystem services.•Social media provides a low-cost indicator for mapping cultural ecosystem ...services.•Machine learning improves data manipulation during ecosystem service mapping.•Variable importance in Random Forest identifies key pointers and indicators for mapping recreation.•Nature based recreation is related to environmental and landscape characteristics.
Crowdsourced geotagged social media data and machine learning approaches have emerged as promising tools for mapping ecosystem services, especially cultural ecosystem services that are difficult to assess. Here, we use recreation to show how social media data, machine learning, and spatial analysis techniques can improve our understanding of human-nature interactions and the mapping of recreational ecosystem services. We extracted 80,500 photographs taken in non-urban areas of the Tahoe Central Sierra Initiative project area in California between 2005 and 2019 that were posted to the photo sharing application Flickr and used these as a proxy for recreational visits to the area. Automated image content analysis was used to identify the objects and concepts in the photographs and uncover the types of nature experiences that are important to visitors. Additionally, variable importance, a Random Forest machine learning technique, was used to examine the environmental and landscape variables that drive recreation in the area and to create a classification model that predicts the recreation potential of the entire area based on important variables. The automated image content analysis identified 1,239 unique labels linked to recreation, with mountains, hills, and rocks being the most prominent features (22%). Our Random Forest model indicates that vegetation cover, land cover, elevation, smoke days, and landscape features are major drivers of recreation in the area and are of interest to visitors in the area. The model predicted that 25.9% of the area has the potential to support recreational visits. Most of these recreation potential areas are in protected areas (77.8%), predominantly in conifer forests (66%) and within national forest boundaries, especially the Tahoe National Forest area (37.6%). These results show that recreational ecosystem services vary across landscapes and illustrate the need for improved mapping approaches to determine the provision of ecosystem services in different places. The analysis provides novel insights into the various ways social media data and machine learning techniques can be powerful components of ecosystem service research and how they hold great potential for monitoring and informing management interventions on ecosystem service provision, especially in places with limited traditional onsite visitation data.
Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use ...threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning.
•We show how social media data is useful for estimating recreational use and trip costs.•This approach can fill data gaps in the valuation of ecosystem services.•Recreational use is higher for ...domestic visitors who take day trips to recreate.•Estimated trip costs are $156 per person, per day trip.•When adjusted by field data, annual social media based travel costs are higher.
Understanding the economic value of ecosystem services is necessary to facilitate sustainable land use management, and to inform policy and decision making. However, valuing and monetizing ecosystem services remains challenging. Benefit-transfer and non-market valuation methods typically rely on administrative data and surveys, but this is time consuming, limited, and requires much more resources. Social media and other types of big data provide accessible and georeferenced data that can be incorporated into valuation approaches. We use recreation as an example and the Tahoe Central Sierra Initiative (TCSI) project area in California as a case study to explore the usefulness of such data in estimating travel costs that form an integral part of determining the value of recreational ecosystem services through the travel cost model. We estimated 6,951 person user days of recreation from 2,245 visitors who uploaded photographs to the Flickr photo-sharing application between 2005 and 2019. We used metadata from the images to infer visitor origins and estimate trip distance and costs of travel for visitors that took day trips (<500 miles (∼800 kms) roundtrip) to the area. Our results show that the most demand for recreational opportunities in the TCSI came from domestic visitors, particularly those from California and Nevada who took day trips. On average, visitors spent $156 per single day trip. The total cost of travel for recreational visits to the TCSI for the period was $491,500 (an average of $32,800 per year). However, when adjusted to align with actual visitation, the travel costs could range from $1.35 to $1.84 billion per year. Estimating recreational use and highlighting the travel cost for recreational opportunities illustrates how crowdsourced data can refine valuation approaches such as the widely used travel cost approach, which may fill in data gaps in valuing ecosystem services.
•Knowledge about ecosystem service production and distribution can foster sustainability.•Ecosystem service governance best practices can improve ecosystem management.•Ecosystem services research ...needs to become more transdisciplinary.•ecoSERVICES will advance co-designed, transdisciplinary ecosystem service research.
Ecosystem services have become a mainstream concept for the expression of values assigned by people to various functions of ecosystems. Even though the introduction of the concept has initiated a vast amount of research, progress in using this knowledge for sustainable resource use remains insufficient. We see a need to broaden the scope of research to answer three key questions that we believe will improve incorporation of ecosystem service research into decision-making for the sustainable use of natural resources to improve human well-being: (i) how are ecosystem services co-produced by social–ecological systems, (ii) who benefits from the provision of ecosystem services, and (iii) what are the best practices for the governance of ecosystem services? Here, we present these key questions, the rationale behind them, and their related scientific challenges in a globally coordinated research programme aimed towards improving sustainable ecosystem management. These questions will frame the activities of ecoSERVICES, formerly a DIVERSITAS project and now a project of Future Earth, in its role as a platform to foster global coordination of multidisciplinary sustainability science through the lens of ecosystem services.
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