Patients with diabetes are at higher risk for death and cardiovascular outcomes than the general population. We investigated whether the excess risk of death and cardiovascular events among patients ...with type 2 diabetes could be reduced or eliminated.
In a cohort study, we included 271,174 patients with type 2 diabetes who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and matched them with 1,355,870 controls on the basis of age, sex, and county. We assessed patients with diabetes according to age categories and according to the presence of five risk factors (elevated glycated hemoglobin level, elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, albuminuria, smoking, and elevated blood pressure). Cox regression was used to study the excess risk of outcomes (death, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure) associated with smoking and the number of variables outside target ranges. We also examined the relationship between various risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes.
The median follow-up among all the study participants was 5.7 years, during which 175,345 deaths occurred. Among patients with type 2 diabetes, the excess risk of outcomes decreased stepwise for each risk-factor variable within the target range. Among patients with diabetes who had all five variables within target ranges, the hazard ratio for death from any cause, as compared with controls, was 1.06 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.00 to 1.12), the hazard ratio for acute myocardial infarction was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.93), and the hazard ratio for stroke was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07). The risk of hospitalization for heart failure was consistently higher among patients with diabetes than among controls (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.57). In patients with type 2 diabetes, a glycated hemoglobin level outside the target range was the strongest predictor of stroke and acute myocardial infarction; smoking was the strongest predictor of death.
Patients with type 2 diabetes who had five risk-factor variables within the target ranges appeared to have little or no excess risk of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, as compared with the general population. (Funded by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and others.).
Long-term trends in excess risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes have not been extensively studied in persons with type 1 diabetes or type 2 diabetes.
We included patients registered in the ...Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998 through 2012 and followed them through 2014. Trends in deaths and cardiovascular events were estimated with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. For each patient, controls who were matched for age, sex, and county were randomly selected from the general population.
Among patients with type 1 diabetes, absolute changes during the study period in the incidence rates of sentinel outcomes per 10,000 person-years were as follows: death from any cause, -31.4 (95% confidence interval CI, -56.1 to -6.7); death from cardiovascular disease, -26.0 (95% CI, -42.6 to -9.4); death from coronary heart disease, -21.7 (95% CI, -37.1 to -6.4); and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, -45.7 (95% CI, -71.4 to -20.1). Absolute changes per 10,000 person-years among patients with type 2 diabetes were as follows: death from any cause, -69.6 (95% CI, -95.9 to -43.2); death from cardiovascular disease, -110.0 (95% CI, -128.9 to -91.1); death from coronary heart disease, -91.9 (95% CI, -108.9 to -75.0); and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, -203.6 (95% CI, -230.9 to -176.3). Patients with type 1 diabetes had roughly 40% greater reduction in cardiovascular outcomes than controls, and patients with type 2 diabetes had roughly 20% greater reduction than controls. Reductions in fatal outcomes were similar in patients with type 1 diabetes and controls, whereas patients with type 2 diabetes had smaller reductions in fatal outcomes than controls.
In Sweden from 1998 through 2014, mortality and the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes declined substantially among persons with diabetes, although fatal outcomes declined less among those with type 2 diabetes than among controls. (Funded by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and others.).
To assess the association between the use of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and seven serious adverse events of current concern.
Register based cohort study.
Sweden and Denmark ...from July 2013 to December 2016.
A propensity score matched cohort of 17 213 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (dapagliflozin, 61%; empagliflozin, 38%; canagliflozin, 1%) and 17 213 new users of the active comparator, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP1) receptor agonists.
The primary outcomes were lower limb amputation, bone fracture, diabetic ketoacidosis, acute kidney injury, serious urinary tract infection, venous thromboembolism, and acute pancreatitis, as identified from hospital records. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by using Cox proportional hazards models.
Use of SGLT2 inhibitors, as compared with GLP1 receptor agonists, was associated with an increased risk of lower limb amputation (incidence rate 2.7
1.1 events per 1000 person years, hazard ratio 2.32, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 3.91) and diabetic ketoacidosis (1.3
0.6, 2.14, 1.01 to 4.52) but not with bone fracture (15.4
13.9, 1.11, 0.93 to 1.33), acute kidney injury (2.3
3.2, 0.69, 0.45 to 1.05), serious urinary tract infection (5.4
6.0, 0.89, 0.67 to 1.19), venous thromboembolism (4.2
4.1, 0.99, 0.71 to 1.38) or acute pancreatitis (1.3
1.2, 1.16, 0.64 to 2.12).
In this analysis of nationwide registers from two countries, use of SGLT2 inhibitors, as compared with GLP1 receptor agonists, was associated with an increased risk of lower limb amputation and diabetic ketoacidosis, but not with other serious adverse events of current concern.
AbstractObjectiveTo assess the association between use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and risk of serious renal events in data from routine clinical practice.DesignCohort study ...using an active comparator, new user design and nationwide register data.SettingSweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2013-18.ParticipantsCohort of 29 887 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (follow-up time: dapagliflozin 66.1%; empagliflozin 32.6%; canagliflozin 1.3%) and 29 887 new users of an active comparator, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, matched 1:1 on the basis of a propensity score with 57 variables. Mean follow-up time was 1.7 (SD 1.0) years.ExposuresSGLT2 inhibitors versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, defined by filled prescriptions and analysed according to intention to treat.Main outcome measuresThe main outcome was serious renal events, a composite including renal replacement therapy, death from renal causes, and hospital admission for renal events. Secondary outcomes were the individual components of the main outcome.ResultsThe mean age of the study population was 61.3 (SD 10.5) years; 11 108 (19%) had cardiovascular disease, and 1974 (3%) had chronic kidney disease. Use of SGLT2 inhibitors, compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, was associated with a reduced risk of serious renal events (2.6 events per 1000 person years versus 6.2 events per 1000 person years; hazard ratio 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.34 to 0.53); absolute difference −3.6 (–4.4 to −2.8) events per 1000 person years). In secondary outcome analyses, the hazard ratio for use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors was 0.32 (0.22 to 0.47) for renal replacement therapy, 0.41 (0.32 to 0.52) for hospital admission for renal events, and 0.77 (0.26 to 2.23) for death from renal causes. In sensitivity analyses in each of the Swedish and Danish parts of the cohort, the model was further adjusted for glycated haemoglobin and estimated glomerular filtration rate (Sweden and Denmark) and for blood pressure, body mass index, and smoking (Sweden only); in these analyses, the hazard ratio moved from 0.41 (0.26 to 0.66) to 0.50 (0.31 to 0.81) in Sweden and from 0.42 (0.32 to 0.56) to 0.55 (0.41 to 0.74) in Denmark.ConclusionsIn this analysis using nationwide data from three countries, use of SGLT2 inhibitors, compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, was associated with a significantly reduced risk of serious renal events.
Abstract
The study of metabolomics has improved our knowledge of the biology behind type 2 diabetes and its related metabolic physiology. We aimed to investigate markers of adipose tissue morphology, ...as well as insulin and glucose metabolism in 53 non-obese male individuals. The participants underwent extensive clinical, biochemical and magnetic resonance imaging phenotyping, and we also investigated non-targeted serum metabolites. We used a multi-modal machine learning approach to evaluate which serum metabolomic compounds predicted markers of glucose and insulin metabolism, adipose tissue morphology and distribution. Fasting glucose was associated with metabolites of intracellular insulin action and beta-cell dysfunction, namely cysteine-s-sulphate and n-acetylgarginine, whereas fasting insulin was predicted by myristoleoylcarnitine, propionylcarnitine and other metabolites of beta-oxidation of fatty acids. OGTT-glucose levels at 30 min were predicted by 7-Hoca, a microbiota derived metabolite, as well as eugenol, a fatty acid. Both insulin clamp and HOMA-IR were predicted by metabolites involved in beta-oxidation of fatty acids and biodegradation of triacylglycerol, namely tartrate and 3-phosphoglycerate, as well as pyruvate, xanthine and liver fat. OGTT glucose area under curve (AUC) and OGTT insulin AUC, was associated with bile acid metabolites, subcutaneous adipocyte cell size, liver fat and fatty chain acids and derivates, such as isovalerylcarnitine. Finally, subcutaneous adipocyte size was associated with long chain fatty acids, markers of sphingolipid metabolism, increasing liver fat and dopamine-sulfate 1. Ectopic liver fat was predicted by methylmalonate, adipocyte cell size, glutathione derived metabolites and fatty chain acids. Ectopic heart fat was predicted visceral fat, gamma-glutamyl tyrosine and 2-acetamidophenol sulfate. Adipocyte cell size, age, alpha-tocopherol and blood pressure were associated with visceral fat. We identified several biomarkers associated with adipose tissue pathophysiology and insulin and glucose metabolism using a multi-modal machine learning approach. Our approach demonstrated the relative importance of serum metabolites and they outperformed traditional clinical and biochemical variables for most endpoints.
AbstractObjectiveTo investigate the cardiovascular effectiveness of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in routine clinical practice.DesignCohort study using data from nationwide ...registers and an active-comparator new-user design.SettingDenmark, Norway, and Sweden, from April 2013 to December 2016.Participants20 983 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 20 983 new users of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors, aged 35-84, matched by age, sex, history of major cardiovascular disease, and propensity score.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcomes were major cardiovascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death) and heart failure (hospital admission for heart failure or death due to heart failure). Secondary outcomes were the individual components of the cardiovascular composite and any cause death. In the primary analyses, patients were defined as exposed from treatment start throughout follow-up (analogous to intention to treat); additional analyses were conducted with an as-treated exposure definition. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios.ResultsMean age of the study cohort was 61 years, 60% were men, and 19% had a history of major cardiovascular disease. Of the total 27 416 person years of follow-up in the SGLT2 inhibitor group, 22 627 (83%) was among patients who initiated dapagliflozin, 4521 (16%) among those who initiated empagliflozin, and 268 (1%) among those who initiated canagliflozin. During follow-up, 467 SGLT2 inhibitor users (incidence rate 17.0 events per 1000 person years) and 662 DPP4 inhibitor users (18.0) had a major cardiovascular event, whereas 130 (4.7) and 265 (7.1) had a heart failure event, respectively. Hazard ratios were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.84 to 1.06) for major cardiovascular events and 0.66 (0.53 to 0.81) for heart failure. Hazard ratios were consistent among subgroups of patients with and without history of major cardiovascular disease and with and without history of heart failure. Hazard ratios for secondary outcomes, comparing SGLT2 inhibitors with DPP4 inhibitors, were 0.99 (0.85 to 1.17) for myocardial infarction, 0.94 (0.77 to 1.15) for stroke, 0.84 (0.65 to 1.08) for cardiovascular death, and 0.80 (0.69 to 0.92) for any cause death. In the as-treated analyses, hazard ratios were 0.84 (0.72 to 0.98) for major cardiovascular events, 0.55 (0.42 to 0.73) for heart failure, 0.93 (0.76 to 1.14) for myocardial infarction, 0.83 (0.64 to 1.07) for stroke, 0.67 (0.49 to 0.93) for cardiovascular death, and 0.75 (0.61 to 0.91) for any cause death.ConclusionsIn this large Scandinavian cohort, SGLT2 inhibitor use compared with DPP4 inhibitor use was associated with reduced risk of heart failure and any cause death, but not with major cardiovascular events in the primary intention-to-treat analysis. In the additional as-treated analyses, the magnitude of the association with heart failure and any cause death became larger, and a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events that was largely driven by the cardiovascular death component was observed. These data help inform patients, practitioners, and authorities regarding the cardiovascular effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors in routine clinical practice.
Diabetes care – improvement through measurement Eliasson, Björn; Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia
Diabetes research and clinical practice,
12/2014, Volume:
106, Issue:
Suppl 2
Journal Article, Magazine Article
Peer reviewed
Abstract The National Diabetes Register (NDR) of Sweden was initiated in response to The Saint Vincent Declaration (published 1990), to provide a tool for continuous quality assurance in diabetes ...care. The original purpose, to monitor the results of health centres from year to year and to compare these with national and regional means, is still the most important one, while continuous follow-up of guidelines, treatments and complications are as important on a national level. The data reported contain basal clinical characteristics of the patients, as well as measures of risk-factor control and the presence of diabetes complications. Many clinics use templates within the medical record systems to verify that all information relevant to good quality assurance in diabetes care is complete, and thereafter export data to NDR. In order to create extra value, the NDR web interface, online at ndr.nu, offers functions to use when interacting with the individual patient, such as reports of all information reported to NDR, including medications and risk-factor control. The clinical results are thus reported back to the health centres (printed and instantaneously online), but are also used for scientific analyses. Such are required by the funding bodies to develop the analytical methods by quality registers, and to widely spread information, including publishing in scientific journals. Ongoing studies address, e.g., the effects of different glucose-lowering therapies, the role of ethnicity and migration, patient-reported outcomes and risks of morbidity and mortality in diabetes mellitus.
The study aimed to identify the most predictive factors for the development of type 2 diabetes. Using an XGboost classification model, we projected type 2 diabetes incidence over a 10-year horizon. ...We deliberately minimized the selection of baseline factors to fully exploit the rich dataset from the UK Biobank. The predictive value of features was assessed using shap values, with model performance evaluated via Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve, sensitivity, and specificity. Data from the UK Biobank, encompassing a vast population with comprehensive demographic and health data, was employed. The study enrolled 450,000 participants aged 40-69, excluding those with pre-existing diabetes. Among 448,277 participants, 12,148 developed type 2 diabetes within a decade. HbA1c emerged as the foremost predictor, followed by BMI, waist circumference, blood glucose, family history of diabetes, gamma-glutamyl transferase, waist-hip ratio, HDL cholesterol, age, and urate. Our XGboost model achieved a Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve of 0.9 for 10-year type 2 diabetes prediction, with a reduced 10-feature model achieving 0.88. Easily measurable biological factors surpassed traditional risk factors like diet, physical activity, and socioeconomic status in predicting type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, high prediction accuracy could be maintained using just the top 10 biological factors, with additional ones offering marginal improvements. These findings underscore the significance of biological markers in type 2 diabetes prediction.
Aims/hypothesis
Research using data-driven cluster analysis has proposed five novel subgroups of diabetes based on six measured variables in individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes. Our aim was (1) ...to validate the existence of differing clusters within type 2 diabetes, and (2) to compare the cluster method with an alternative strategy based on traditional methods to predict diabetes outcomes.
Methods
We used data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and included 114,231 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.
k
-means clustering was used to identify clusters based on nine continuous variables (age at diagnosis, HbA
1c
, BMI, systolic and diastolic BP, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerol and eGFR). The elbow method was used to determine the optimal number of clusters and Cox regression models were used to evaluate mortality risk and risk of CVD events. The prediction models were compared using concordance statistics.
Results
The elbow plot, with values of
k
ranging from 1 to 10, showed a smooth curve without any clear cut-off points, making the optimal value of
k
unclear. The appearance of the plot was very similar to the elbow plot made from a simulated dataset consisting only of one cluster. In prediction models for mortality, concordance was 0.63 (95% CI 0.63, 0.64) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.66) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.77) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with smoothing splines. In prediction models for CVD events, the concordance was 0.64 (95% CI 0.63, 0.65) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.67) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with splines for all variables.
Conclusions/interpretation
This nationwide observational study found no evidence supporting the existence of a specific number of distinct clusters within type 2 diabetes. The results from this study suggest that a prediction model approach using simple clinical features to predict risk of diabetes complications would be more useful than a cluster sub-stratification.
Graphical abstract
Abstract
Background
Obesity is overrepresented in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and associated with increased disease activity. We have previously shown in 41 patients with PsA (Caspar ...criteria) and obesity (body mass index; BMI ≥33 kg/m
2
) that weight loss treatment with Very Low Energy Liquid Diet (VLED), 640 kcal/day during 12–16 weeks, followed by a structured reintroduction of an energy restricted diet resulted in a median weight loss of 18.6% and concomitantly a significant improvement of the disease activity in joints, entheses and skin.
The objectives of this follow-up were to study the effects of the weight loss treatment on disease activity in longer term (12 and 24 months) and to study the effects on cardiovascular risk factors.
Methods
The patients were assessed with 66/68 joints count, Leeds enthesitis index (LEI), body surface area, blood pressure, BMI, questionnaires and fasting blood samples at the 12- and 24-month visits.
Results
In total, 39 and 35 PsA patients attended the 12- and the 24-month visits, respectively. Median weight loss since baseline was 16.0% (IQR 10.5–22.4) and 7.4% (IQR 5.1–14.0) at the 12- and 24-months follow-up. The 66/68 swollen/tender joints score, LEI, CRP and HAQ score were still significantly reduced at the 12- and 24-month visits compared to baseline. The number of patients with Minimal Disease Activity increased from 28.2% (11/39) at baseline, to 38.5% (15/39;
p
= 0.008) and 45.7% (16/35;
p
= 0.016) at the 12- and 24-month visits.
The weight loss was also associated with improved levels of serum lipids, glucose and urate and the antihypertensive treatment was reduced or stopped in five patients during the follow-up.
Conclusions
Weight loss treatment, with VLED included in the program, was associated with long-term improvement of measures of disease activity, self-reported function and markers of the metabolic syndrome after 24-months follow-up.
Trial registration
ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:
NCT02917434
, Registered September 28, 2016- Retrospectively registered.
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