We employ Newcomb-Benford law (NBL) to evaluate the reliability of COVID-19 figures in Brazil. Using official data from February 25 to September 15, we apply a first digit test for a national ...aggregate dataset of total cases and cumulative deaths. We find strong evidence that Brazilian reports do not conform to the NBL theoretical expectations. These results are robust to different goodness of fit (chi-square, mean absolute deviation and distortion factor) and data sources (John Hopkins University and Our World in Data). Despite the growing appreciation for evidence-based-policymaking, which requires valid and reliable data, we show that the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system fails to provide trustful data under the NBL assumption on the COVID-19 epidemic.
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have implemented social distancing policies with different levels of both enforcement and compliance. We conducted an interrupted time ...series analysis to estimate the impact of lockdowns on reducing the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazil. Official daily data was collected for four city capitals before and after their respective policies interventions based on a 14 days observation window. We estimated a segmented linear regression to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown measures on COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The initial number of new cases and new deaths had a positive trend prior to policy change. After lockdown, a statistically significant decrease in new confirmed cases was found in all state capitals. We also found evidence that lockdown measures were likely to reverse the trend of new daily deaths due to COVID-19. In São Luís, we observed a reduction of 37.85% while in Fortaleza the decrease was 33.4% on the average difference in daily deaths if the lockdown had not been implemented. Similarly, the intervention diminished mortality in Recife by 21.76% and Belém by 16.77%. Social distancing policies can be useful tools in flattening the epidemic curve.
RESUMO Este artigo analisa a relação entre o saneamento básico e a disseminação da COVID-19 nas capitais brasileiras. Para tanto, estima-se o Índice de Acesso ao Saneamento Básico pela redução das ...dimensões cobertura do saneamento e qualidade da gestão, obtidas por dados disponíveis no Sistema Nacional de Informação sobre Saneamento. Em seguida, aferiu-se o nível de associação entre saneamento e taxas de incidência e mortalidade da doença em todas as capitais brasileiras entre março e setembro de 2020. Os resultados sugerem que Curitiba (0,824), Campo Grande (0,808) e Goiânia (0,794) lideram o ranking de acesso ao saneamento básico. Além disso, as evidências apontam para uma correlação negativa entre saneamento e taxas de incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19. Contudo, a significância estatística das estimativas varia em função do tempo. Esses achados estão alinhados com a literatura internacional, que identifica o acesso ao saneamento como uma medida chave de profilaxia de doenças infecciosas.
ABSTRACT This article analyzes the relationship between basic sanitation and the spread of COVID-19 in Brazilian state capitals. For that, the Basic Sanitation Access Index is estimated based on the reduction in the dimensions of sanitation coverage and management quality, obtained from data available in the National Sanitation Information System. Then, the level of association between sanitation and disease incidence and mortality rates in all Brazilian capitals between March and September 2020 is measured. The results suggest that Curitiba (0.824), Campo Grande (0.808), and Goiânia (0.794) lead the ranking of access to basic sanitation. Also, evidence points to a negative correlation between sanitation and COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates. However, the statistical significance of the estimates varies with time. These findings are in line with the international literature, which identifies access to sanitation as a key measure of infectious disease prophylaxis.
Claims of inconsistency in epidemiological data have emerged for both developed and developing countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this paper, we apply first-digit Newcomb-Benford Law (NBL) ...and Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) to evaluate COVID-19 records reliability in all 20 Latin American countries. We replicate country-level aggregate information from Our World in Data.
We find that official reports do not follow NBL's theoretical expectations (n = 978; chi-square = 78.95; KS = 4.33, MD = 2.18; mantissa = .54; MAD = .02; DF = 12.75). KLD estimates indicate high divergence among countries, including some outliers.
This paper provides evidence that recorded COVID-19 cases in Latin America do not conform overall to NBL, which is a useful tool for detecting data manipulation. Our study suggests that further investigations should be made into surveillance systems that exhibit higher deviation from the theoretical distribution and divergence from other similar countries.
Resumo Este artigo analisa o impacto da posição em que as questões são apresentadas sobre o desempenho dos estudantes no Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (Enem) no Brasil em 2016. A partir de uma ...amostra de 4.427.790 casos, calculamos o índice de acerto por questão para os diferentes cadernos de prova da área de Matemática e suas Tecnologias. Os resultados indicam a presença do efeito fadiga na prova do Enem 2016, ou seja, a ordem de apresentação das questões afeta a proporção de respostas corretas, que diminui à medida que o item é apresentado mais próximo do final da prova. As evidências exploratórias também sugerem que o efeito fadiga se manifesta tanto em estudantes de baixo quanto de alto desempenho. Por exemplo, a posição do item reduziu o índice de acerto em até 18 pontos percentuais, controlando pelo nível de desempenho. Este artigo faz a primeira avaliação empírica do efeito fadiga no Enem e os resultados representam uma contribuição para a literatura sobre influências não cognitivas em avaliação e são úteis para fundamentar estudos mais sistemáticos sobre o impacto do efeito fadiga em testes padronizados de larga escala, inclusive para além do caso específico analisado. Ao final, sugerimos medidas que podem mitigar esse efeito no Enem.
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of the position of questions on students’ performance on the National Secondary Education Examination (Enem) in 2016. From a sample of 4,427,790 cases, we calculated the hit rate per question for the different workbooks in the Mathematics and its Technologies test. The results indicate presence of the fatigue effect on the 2016 Enem, that is, the order in which the questions are presented affects the proportion of correct answers, which is diminished as an item is presented closer to the end of the test. The exploratory evidence also suggests that the fatigue effect is manifested in students of both low and high performance. For example, the position of an item reduced the hit rate up to 18%, controlling for performance level. This paper conducts the first empirical evaluation of the fatigue effect during the Enem. The results contribute to the literature on the non-cognitive influences in evaluation, being useful to substantiate more systematic studies on the fatigue effect’s impact on large-scale standardized tests, beyond the case analyzed. At the end, we suggest measures that can mitigate this effect during the Enem.
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of the position of questions on students’ performance on the National Secondary Education Examination (Enem) in 2016. From a sample of 4,427,790 cases, we ...calculated the hit rate per question for the different workbooks in the Mathematics and its Technologies test. The results indicate presence of the fatigue effect on the 2016 Enem, that is, the order in which the questions are presented affects the proportion of correct answers, which is diminished as an item is presented closer to the end of the test. The exploratory evidence also suggests that the fatigue effect is manifested in students of both low and high performance. For example, the position of an item reduced the hit rate up to 18%, controlling for performance level. This paper conducts the first empirical evaluation of the fatigue effect during the Enem. The results contribute to the literature on the non-cognitive influences in evaluation, being useful to substantiate more systematic studies on the fatigue effect’s impact on large-scale standardized tests, beyond the case analyzed. At the end, we suggest measures that can mitigate this effect during the Enem.
Resumo Este artigo analisa o impacto da posição em que as questões são apresentadas sobre o desempenho dos estudantes no Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (Enem) no Brasil em 2016. A partir de uma amostra de 4.427.790 casos, calculamos o índice de acerto por questão para os diferentes cadernos de prova da área de Matemática e suas Tecnologias. Os resultados indicam a presença do efeito fadiga na prova do Enem 2016, ou seja, a ordem de apresentação das questões afeta a proporção de respostas corretas, que diminui à medida que o item é apresentado mais próximo do final da prova. As evidências exploratórias também sugerem que o efeito fadiga se manifesta tanto em estudantes de baixo quanto de alto desempenho. Por exemplo, a posição do item reduziu o índice de acerto em até 18 pontos percentuais, controlando pelo nível de desempenho. Este artigo faz a primeira avaliação empírica do efeito fadiga no Enem e os resultados representam uma contribuição para a literatura sobre influências não cognitivas em avaliação e são úteis para fundamentar estudos mais sistemáticos sobre o impacto do efeito fadiga em testes padronizados de larga escala, inclusive para além do caso específico analisado. Ao final, sugerimos medidas que podem mitigar esse efeito no Enem.
In Brazil, the Ministry of Health (MH) monitors leprosy using 15 indicators, with the aim of implementing and evaluating evidence-based public policies. However, an excessive number of variables can ...complicate the definition of objectives and verification of epidemiological goals.
In this paper, we develop the Global Leprosy Assessment Index (GLAI), a composite measure that integrates two key dimensions for the control the disease: epidemiological and operational. Using a confirmatory factor analysis model to examine 2020 state-level data, we have standardized GLAI to a range of 0 to 1.
Higher values within this range indicate a greater severity of the disease. The mean value of the GLAI was 0.67, with a standard deviation of 0.22. Roraima has the highest value, followed by Paraíba with 0.88 while Tocantins records the lowest value of the indicator, followed by Mato Grosso with 0.14. The epidemiological and operational indicators have a positive but statistically insignificant correlation (r = 0.25; p-value = 0.20).
The development of evidence-based public policies depends on the availability of valid and reliable indicators. The GLAI presented in this paper is easily reproducible and can be used to monitor the disease with disaggregated information. Furthermore, the GLAI has the potential to serve as a more robust parameter for evaluating the impact of actions designed to eradicate leprosy in Brazil.
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Resumo Este artigo testa a hipótese de que a redução na maioridade penal diminui a violência. Metodologicamente, o desenho de pesquisa utiliza análise espacial, estatística descritiva e multivariada ...para analisar um banco de dados original elaborado a partir de fontes secundárias. O foco repousa sobre o sistema de justiça juvenil em perspectiva comparada a partir de duas variáveis: (1) maioridade penal e (2) responsabilidade criminal. A média de maioridade penal global converge para 18 anos, enquanto a média de responsabilização criminal se aproxima de 11 anos. Os resultados sugerem uma correlação negativa entre a idade de imputabilidade penal e a taxa de homicídios, ou seja, quanto menor o patamar de maioridade penal, maior o nível de violência. Com este artigo, esperamos contribuir com o debate sobre a redução da maioridade penal no Brasil e, consequentemente, com o aprimoramento de políticas públicas específicas de combate à violência.
Resumen Este trabajo pone a prueba la hipótesis de que la reducción de la edad legal disminuye la violencia. El diseño de la investigación utiliza análisis espacial, descriptivo y estadística multivariante para analizar una base de datos original compilada a partir de fuentes secundarias. El enfoque se basa en el sistema de justicia juvenil en perspectiva comparada con énfasis en dos variables: (1) la edad legal y (2) la responsabilidad penal. El promedio coincide en los 18 años de edad legal en el mundo, mientras que el promedio de la responsabilidad penal es aproximadamente a los 11 años. Los principales resultados sugieren una correlación negativa entre la edad de la responsabilidad penal y la tasa de homicidios, o sea, cuanto menor la edad, mayor es el nivel de violencia. Con este artículo, esperamos contribuir al debate sobre la reducción de la edad legal en Brasil y, en consecuencia, mejorar las políticas públicas específicas sobre el tema.
Abstract This paper tests the hypothesis that decreasing the age of criminal majority will reduce violence. Methodologically, the research design uses spatial analysis, descriptive and multivariate statistics to examine an original dataset created based on secondary sources. We focus on juvenile judicial system in comparative perspective centering in two variables: (1) age of criminal majority and (2) age of criminal responsibility. The general average of criminal majority tends to 18 years, while the average age of criminal responsibility tends to 11 years. The result shows a negative correlation between the age of criminal majority and homicides rates. That means that countries with lower age of criminal majority have higher rates of violence. With this paper we hope to contribute in the discussion regarding criminal majority reduction in Brazil and in the development of specific public policies to reduce violence.
Résumé Ce travail teste l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'abaissement de l'âge de la majorité pénale fait diminuer la violence. Sur le plan méthodologique, l'esquisse de cette recherche a utilisé l'analyse spatiale, l'analyse descriptive et la statistique multivariée pour analyser une base de données originale compilée à partir de sources secondaires. L'étude se concentre sur le système de justice pour mineurs dans une perspective comparée mettant l'accent sur deux variables: (1) la majorité pénale et (2) la responsabilité pénale. La moyenne de l'âge légal dans le monde converge vers les 18 ans, tandis que la responsabilité pénale, en moyenne, est proche des 11 ans. Les résultats suggèrent une corrélation négative entre l'âge de la responsabilité pénale et le taux d'homicides, c'est-à-dire que plus le seuil de l'âge légal est bas, plus le niveau de violence est élevé. Avec cet article, nous espérons contribuer au débat sur la réduction de l'âge pénal au Brésil et, par conséquent, l'amélioration des politiques publiques spécifiques sur ce sujet.
This paper studies the integrity of the vote counting system in Brazil.
We analyze data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for the 2018 Brazilian presidential election to assess suspicious vote ...count patterns deploying five techniques commonly used to detect fraud: a) the second-digit Benford's law test; b) the last digit mean; c) frequency analysis of last digits 0 and 5; d) correlation between the percentage of votes and the turnout rate; and e) resampled Kernel density of the proportion of votes.
The results show that the second-digit distributions for the three most voted candidates – Jair Messias Bolsonaro (PSL), Fernando Haddad (PT), and Ciro Gomes (PDT) – conform to Benford's law. We also find that last digit means and last digit frequency are within normal parameters, indicating no irregularities. Similarly, the fingerprint plot indicates a correlation coefficient that is consistent with the theoretical expectation of a fair election. The resampled Kernel density suggests that the vote count was performed without statistically significant distortions. These results are robust at different levels of data aggregation (polling station and municipality).
The joint application of digit-focused tests, regression-based techniques, and patterns in the distribution of vote-shares provide a more reliable method for detecting anomalous cases. Relying on this unified framework, we find no evidence of electoral fraud in the 2018 Brazilian presidential election. These results advance our current understanding of statistical forensics tools and may be easily replicated to examine electoral integrity in other countries.
•Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly raised suspicious about the integrity of the country’s vote-counting system.•These speeches cause enormous discomfort and a negative impact on the credibility of the electronic ballot box.•Five electoral fraud detection tests are used to examine the latest presidential elections.•The evidence presented rules out the possibility of fraud in the presidential election in Brazil with a high confidence level.
...both the natural and the social sciences are facing a reproducibility crisis (FREESE and PETERSON, 2017; LEEK and PENG, 2015; MUNAFO et al., 2017). According to Hamermesh (2007), replication has ...three perspectives: pure, statistical and scientific. ...to avoid conceptual misunderstandings, we adopt the following definitions: According to King, Keohane and Verba (1994), "without this information we cannot determine whether using standard procedures in analyzing the data will produce biased inferences. ...scholars in the United States and Europe produce the majority of work on the topic.
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