•Citizen-scientist (CS) datasets offer unique opportunities and challenges to the study of global conservation priorities.•Fortunately, issues of error and bias found in CS data are similar to those ...found in other large-scale databases.•As a consequence, statistical tools exist to handle many kinds of error and bias common to CS data.•We highlight some statistical approaches that are used in ecological contexts and are available in free software packages.
Networks of citizen scientists (CS) have the potential to observe biodiversity and species distributions at global scales. Yet the adoption of such datasets in conservation science may be hindered by a perception that the data are of low quality. This perception likely stems from the propensity of data generated by CS to contain greater levels of variability (e.g., measurement error) or bias (e.g., spatio-temporal clustering) in comparison to data collected by scientists or instruments. Modern analytical approaches can account for many types of error and bias typical of CS datasets. It is possible to (1) describe how pseudo-replication in sampling influences the overall variability in response data using mixed-effects modeling, (2) integrate data to explicitly model the sampling process and account for bias using a hierarchical modeling framework, and (3) examine the relative influence of many different or related explanatory factors using machine learning tools. Information from these modeling approaches can be used to predict species distributions and to estimate biodiversity. Even so, achieving the full potential from CS projects requires meta-data describing the sampling process, reference data to allow for standardization, and insightful modeling suitable to the question of interest.
Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits ...may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.
ABSTRACT
Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human ...societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well‐being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human‐centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
The ocean economy is experiencing rapid growth that will provide benefits but will also pose environmental and social risks. With limited space and degraded resources in coastal areas, offshore ...waters will be a particular focus of Blue Economy expansion over the next decade. When emerging and established economic sectors expand in offshore waters (within national Exclusive Economic Zones), different potential Blue Economy opportunities and challenges will arise. Following a series of interdisciplinary workshops, we imagine two technically possible futures for the offshore Blue Economy and we identify the actions required to achieve the more sustainable outcome. Under a business as usual scenario the focus will remain on economic growth, the commodification of nature, the dominance of private over public and cultural interests, and prioritisation of the interests of current over future generations. A more sustainable scenario would meet multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals and ensure inclusive economic developments, environmental sustainability, and fair and equitable access to resources and technologies across users, nations, and generations. Challenges to this more sustainable future are a lack of infrastructure and technology to support emerging offshore sectors, limited understanding of environmental impacts, inequitable outcomes, and a lack of planning and governmental oversight. Addressing these challenges will require a shift in societal values, a more balanced allocation of funding to offshore activities, transparency in information sharing between industries and across nations, and adjustment of international legal and institutional mechanisms. The sustainable and equitable offshore Blue Economy we envisage is achievable and provides a unique opportunity to build global capacity and partnership.
Graphic abstract
While governments and natural resource managers grapple with how to respond to climatic changes, many marine-dependent individuals, organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of the world ...are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these. However, we have little information on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s fastest warming marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in biodiversity already observed. We present and compare examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of the region to provide insights into factors that may have constrained or facilitated the available range of autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite of changes that marine users are making largely without government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous adaptations, to better understand these and their potential interactions with formal adaptation strategies.
Despite frequent calls for Integrated Management (IM) of coastal and marine activities, there is no consensus on the ‘recipe’ for successful adoption and implementation, and there has been ...insufficient evaluation of successes and failures of IM to date. The primary rationale for IM is to overcome four major deficiencies of sector-based management: a) management of diverse activities by different agencies using different approaches, b) management generally focused on a subset of primarily ecological objectives that do not properly articulate or evaluate social, cultural, economic and institutional objectives, c) no mechanisms to evaluate or advise on trade-offs among objectives of activities in relation to objectives and d) no mechanisms to evaluate the cumulative effects of all managed activities. To help overcome this gap in knowledge, here we draw on our collective experiences working in Australia and Canada to develop and articulate a framework to help guide the practical implementation and evaluation of IM, which we define as: ‘An approach that links (integrates) planning, decision-making and management arrangements across sectors in a unified framework, to enable a more comprehensive view of sustainability and the consideration of cumulative effects and trade-offs.’
We argue that IM will be most easily and effectively achieved by linking and modifying existing sector-based plans in an overarching IM initiative that has nine key features: 1) Recognition of need for IM, 2) A shared vision by stakeholders and decision-makers for IM, 3) Appropriate legal and institutional frameworks for coordinated decision-making, 4) Sufficient and effective processes for stakeholder engagement and participation, 5) A common and comprehensive set of operational objectives, 6) Explicit consideration of trade-offs and cumulative impacts, 7) Flexibility to adapt to changing conditions, 8) Processes for ongoing review and refinement, and 9) Effective resourcing, capacity, leadership and tools. Drawing on these features we then articulate a process for the implementation and evaluation of IM that recognises five phases: i) Preconditions and drivers of change, ii) Intentional design and institutional rearrangement, iii) Enablers and disablers iv) An implemented IM process, and v) Review of IM performance and modification. Combination of the nine features of IM with the five phases in IM development provides a framework for implementation and a lens for evaluation of IM processes. We suggest that this framework provides a guide to the appropriate design of practical IM, which will assist in overcoming the current management deficiencies and improve the sustainability of marine resources in the face of change.
•Sector-based management cannot adequately address trade-offs and cumulative effects.•Integrated planning and management is required for holistic sustainability.•Integrated Management can build on existing management arrangements across sectors in a unified way.•This paper provides a ‘recipe’ or framework for successful implementation of Integrated Management.•Nine key features and five phases of implementation provide a lens for evaluation of Integrated Management.
The Juan Fernández Ridge (JFRE) is a vulnerable marine ecosystem (VME) located off the coast of central Chile formed by the Juan Fernández Archipelago and a group of seamounts. This ecosystem has ...unique biological and oceanographic features, characterized by: small geographical units, high degree of endemism with a high degree of connectivity within the system. Two fleets have historically operated in this system: a long term coastal artisanal fishery associated with the Islands, focused mainly on lobster, and a mainland based industrial demersal finfish fishery operating on the seamounts which is currently considered overexploited. The management of these fisheries has been based on a classical single-species approach to determine output controls (industrial fleet) and a mixed management system with formal and informal components (artisanal fleet). There has been growing interest in increasing the exploitation of fisheries, and modernization of the fishing fleet already operating in the JFRE. Under this scenario of increased levels of fishing exploitation and the high level of interrelation of species it might be necessary to understand the impact of these fisheries from a holistic perspective based on a ecosystem-based modeling approach. To address these challenges we developed an Atlantis end-to-end model was configured for this ecosystem. The implemented model has a high degree of skill in representing the observed trends and fluctuations of the JFRE. The model shows that the industrial fishing has a localized impact and the artisanal fisheries have a relatively low impact on the ecosystem, mainly via the lobster fishery. The model indicates that the depletion of large sized lobster has leads to an increase in the population of sea urchins. Although this increase is not sufficient, as yet, to cause substantial flow-on effects to other groups, caution is advised in case extra pressure leads the ecosystem towards a regime shift.
Several lines of evidence show that ocean warming off the east coast of Tasmania is the result of intensification of the East Australian Current (EAC). Increases in the strength, duration and ...frequency of southward incursions of warm, nutrient poor EAC water transports heat and biota to eastern Tasmania. This shift in large-scale oceanography is reflected by changes in the structure of nearshore zooplankton communities and other elements of the pelagic system; by a regional decline in the extent of dense beds of giant kelp (
Macrocystis pyrifera); by marked changes in the distribution of nearshore fishes; and by range expansions of other northern warmer-water species to colonize Tasmanian coastal waters. Population-level changes in commercially important invertebrate species may also be associated with the warming trend.
Over-grazing of seaweed beds by one recently established species, the sea urchin
Centrostephanus rodgersii, is causing a fundamental shift in the structure and dynamics of Tasmanian rocky reef systems by the formation of sea urchin ‘barrens’ habitat. Formation of barrens represents an interaction between effects of climate change and a reduction in large predatory rock lobsters due to fishing. Barrens realize a loss of biodiversity and production from rocky reefs, and threaten valuable abalone and rock lobster fisheries and the local economies and social communities they support. This range-extending sea urchin species represents the single largest biologically mediated threat to the integrity of important shallow water rocky reef communities in eastern Tasmania.
In synthesizing change in the physical ocean climate in eastern Tasmania and parallel shifts in species' distributions and ecological processes, there is evidence that the direct effects of changing physical conditions have precipitated cascading effects of ecological change in benthic (rocky reef) and pelagic systems. However, some patterns correlated with temperature have plausible alternative explanations unrelated to thermal gradients in time or space. We identify important knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to adequately understand, anticipate and adapt to future climate-driven changes in marine systems in the region.
► Intensification of EAC leads to large changes in marine systems in eastern Tasmania. ► Range-extending sea urchins pose significant threat to rocky reefs and key fisheries. ► Large-scale oceanographic change is reflected by change in zooplankton communities. ► Dramatic decline in giant kelp beds as a result of climate change in eastern Tasmania. ► Oceanographic change precipitates cascading ecological change in eastern Tasmania.
Citizen science includes a suite of research approaches that involves participation by citizens, who are not usually trained scientists, in scientific projects. Citizen science projects have the ...capacity to record observations of species with high precision and accuracy, offering the potential for collection of biological data to support a diversity of research investigations. Moreover, via the involvement of project participants, these projects have the potential to engage the public on scientific issues and to possibly contribute to changes in community knowledge, attitudes and behaviours. However, there are considerable challenges in ensuring that large-scale collection and verification of species data by the untrained public is a robust and useful long-term endeavor, and that project participants are indeed engaged and acquiring knowledge. Here, we describe approaches taken to overcome challenges in creation and maintenance of a website-based national citizen science initiative where fishers, divers, and other coastal users submit opportunistic photographic observations of ‘out-of-range’ species. The Range Extension Database and Mapping Project (Redmap Australia) has two objectives, 1/ ecological monitoring for the early detection of species that may be extending their geographic distribution due to environmental change, and 2/ engaging the public on the ecological impacts of climate change, using the public’s own data. Semi-automated ‘managed crowd-sourcing’ of an Australia-wide network of scientists with taxonomic expertise is used to verify every photographic observation. This unique system is supported by efficient workflows that ensures the rigor of data submitted. Moreover, ease of involvement for participants and prompt personal feedback has contributed to generating and maintaining ongoing interest. The design of Redmap Australia allows co-creation of knowledge with the community - without participants requiring formal training - providing an opportunity to engage sectors of the community that may not necessarily be willing to undergo training or otherwise be formally involved or engaged in citizen science. Given that capturing changes in our natural environment requires many observations spread over time and space, identifying factors and processes that support large-scale citizen science monitoring projects is increasingly critical.
Climate change is not being felt equally around the world. Regions where warming is most rapid will be among those to experience impacts first, will need to develop early responses to these impacts ...and can provide a guide for management elsewhere. We describe the research history in one such global marine hotspot—south-east Australia—where a number of contentions about the value of hotspots as natural laboratories have been supported, including (1) early reporting of changes (2) early documentation of impacts, and (3) earlier development and promotion of adaptation options. We illustrate a transition from single discipline impacts-focused research to an inter-disciplinary systems view of adaptation research. This transition occurred against a background of change in the political position around climate change and was facilitated by four preconditioning factors. These were: (1) early observations of rapid oceanic change that coincided with (2) biological change which together provided a focus for action, (3) the strong marine orientation and history of management in the region, and (4) the presence of well developed networks. Three case studies collectively show the critical role of inter-disciplinary engagement and stakeholder participation in supporting industry and government adaptation planning.
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