The Amazon basin hosts half the planet's remaining moist tropical forests, but they may be threatened in a warming world. Nevertheless, climate model predictions vary from rapid drying to modest ...wetting. Here we report that the catchment of the world's largest river is experiencing a substantial wetting trend since approximately 1990. This intensification of the hydrological cycle is concentrated overwhelmingly in the wet season driving progressively greater differences in Amazon peak and minimum flows. The onset of the trend coincides with the onset of an upward trend in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). This positive longer‐term correlation contrasts with the short‐term, negative response of basin‐wide precipitation to positive anomalies in tropical North Atlantic SST, which are driven by temporary shifts in the intertropical convergence zone position. We propose that the Amazon precipitation changes since 1990 are instead related to increasing atmospheric water vapor import from the warming tropical Atlantic.
Key Points
Intensification of Amazon Hydrological Cycle since 1990
Revealed by both river discharge and precipitation records
In parallel onset of tropical Atlantic warming offering explanation
The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate streamflows over each sub-basin of the Amazon River basin. For this purpose, simulations are performed ...with a routing module including the influence of floodplains and swamps on river discharge and validated against on-site hydrological measurements collected within the HYBAM observatory over the 1980–2000 period. When forced by the NCC global meteorological dataset, the initial version of ORCHIDEE shows discrepancies with ORE HYBAM measurements with underestimation by 15% of the annual mean streamflow at Óbidos hydrological station. Consequently, several improvements are incrementally added to the initial simulation in order to reduce those discrepancies. First, values of NCC precipitation are substituted by ORE HYBAM daily in-situ rainfall observations from the meteorological services of Amazonian countries, interpolated over the basin. It highly improves the simulated streamflow over the northern and western parts of the basin, whereas streamflow over southern regions becomes overestimated, probably due to the extension of rainy spots that may be exaggerated by our interpolation method, or to an underestimation of simulated evapotranspiration when compared to flux tower measurements. Second, the initial map of maximal fractions of floodplains and swamps which largely underestimates floodplains areas over the main stem of the Amazon River and over the region of Llanos de Moxos in Bolivia, is substituted by a new one with a better agreement with different estimates over the basin. Simulated monthly water height is consequently better represented in ORCHIDEE when compared to Topex/Poseidon measurements over the main stem of the Amazon. Finally, a calibration of the time constant of the floodplain reservoir is performed to adjust the mean simulated seasonal peak flow at Óbidos in agreement with the observations.
Ongoing global climatic change initiated by the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is a matter of intense debate. We focus both on the impact of these climatic changes on the global hydrological ...cycle and on the amplitude of the increase of global and continental runoff over the last century, in relation to measured temperature increases. In this contribution, we propose an original statistical wavelet-based method for the reconstruction of the monthly discharges of worldwide largest rivers. This method provides a data-based approximation of the evolution of the annual continental and global runoffs over the last century. A consistent correlation is highlighted between global annual temperature and runoff, suggesting a 4% global runoff increase by 1 °C global temperature rise. However, this global trend should be qualified at the regional scale where both increasing and decreasing trends are identified. North America runoffs appear to be the most sensitive to the recent climatic changes. Finally, this contribution provides the first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of the global hydrological cycle. This corresponds to more intense evaporation over oceans coupled to continental precipitation increase or continental evaporation decrease. This process finally leads to an increase of the global continental runoff.
Context. The High Frequency Instrument (HFI) is one of the two focal instruments of the Planck mission. It will observe the whole sky in six bands in the 100 GHz–1 THz range. Aims. The HFI instrument ...is designed to measure the cosmic microwave background (CMB) with a sensitivity limited only by fundamental sources: the photon noise of the CMB itself and the residuals left after the removal of foregrounds. The two high frequency bands will provide full maps of the submillimetre sky, featuring mainly extended and point source foregrounds. Systematic effects must be kept at negligible levels or accurately monitored so that the signal can be corrected. This paper describes the HFI design and its characteristics deduced from ground tests and calibration. Methods. The HFI instrumental concept and architecture are feasible only by pushing new techniques to their extreme capabilities, mainly: (i) bolometers working at 100 mK and absorbing the radiation in grids; (ii) a dilution cooler providing 100 mK in microgravity conditions; (iii) a new type of AC biased readout electronics and (iv) optical channels using devices inspired from radio and infrared techniques. Results. The Planck-HFI instrument performance exceeds requirements for sensitivity and control of systematic effects. During ground-based calibration and tests, it was measured at instrument and system levels to be close to or better than the goal specification.
This paper is devoted to illustrating new wavelet analysis methods in the field of hydrology. New wavelet indicators are applied to long-term hydrological and climatologic proxies. They are first ...applied to four Atlantic large river monthly discharges (Amazon, Parana, Orinoco and Congo) and then applied to two well-known long-term climatologic indexes: the Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach makes it possible to suggest physical explanations for time–scale dependant relationships.
Six-month variability is present in all the rivers except in the Parana. In the Congo River this signal is near stationary with strong entropy. The strength of this scale coincides with higher discharge variability before 1920 and over the Orinoco basin with higher discharge values between 1940 and 1955. An annual cycle is present in all the rivers but is much stronger, along with the entropy, in the rivers with a large tropical basin, as in the Amazon and the Orinoco. This annual signal is not permanent in the Congo and much more intermittent in the Parana where the annual recharge appears as very irregular. A quasi biennial variability is apparent in all the equator ward rivers and a nearly permanent 2-year coherence is found between SOI and the Amazon discharge. A 3–6-year oscillation typical of ENSO variability is observed in all the rivers. It is intermittent, observed before 1930 in all the rivers and after 1980 mostly in the Amazon River. These peaks of activity correspond to periods of major SOI variability.
An 8-year variability is particularly strong in the Parana River before 1940 and around 1970 and to a lesser extent in the Orinoco River during the low NAO index period, between 1940 and 1970. The Congo River exhibits that time–scale around 1970. A 13-year variability common to SOI, NAO and the South Atlantic Ocean circulation is observed in the Parana and Congo discharges.
In all the rivers the greatest entropy is observed at bi and multi decadal time scales with the greatest coherence with both NAO and SOI. A near 20-year time–scale is observed in most of the series around 1970, although it is strongest in Amazon and Parana discharges. Finally, a 30-year time–scale is observed between 1940 and 1970.
It is to be noted that most of the time–scale dominant activities, in all the rivers, may have been influenced by the interdecadal shifts that took place around 1940 and 1970 in the Pacific and in the Atlantic.
Therefore, in this contribution, the application of new wavelet indicators (combined continuous and multi-resolution analysis, wavelet entropy, wavelet coherence, wavelet cross-correlation) leads to several improvements in the analysis of these global hydrological signal fluctuations and of their mutual time varying relationships. It is demonstrated that wavelets should be used more systematically in preference to the classical Fourier analysis, notably in hydrology.
Floods are fundamental components of Amazon nature and culture. The large flood of 2009, however, opened a new perspective on hazards and disasters in the Amazon basin. More than 238,000 residents ...from 38 municipalities were affected by floods along the Amazon River and lower reaches of its tributaries. Never before has a flood in the Amazon produced such a dramatic effect on the local population. The magnitude of the disaster suggested it was the largest recorded Amazon flood since the beginning of measurements in 1928 at Óbidos and that it could represent the largest recorded flood on Earth. A complex combination of atmospheric and hydrologic factors made the 2009 Amazon flood the most hazardous. It was the result of large scale and regional climatic events, non-typical mechanisms of flood transmission generating complex inter-relations in time and space between the main system and the tributaries, and recent urban growth of riverine cities without adequate planning. Our measurements at Óbidos, however, indicate that the 2009 flood was the highest recorded Amazon stage, but most likely not the largest water discharge. We propose as well that the magnitude of the Amazon floods at Óbidos has been overestimated for decades and that the available values of flood discharge have been a source of error for a multidisciplinary set of scientists developing climate and environmental modeling.
Hydro-sedimentology development is a great challenge in Peru due to limited data as well as sparse and confidential information. This study aimed to quantify and to understand the suspended sediment ...yield from the west-central Andes Mountains and to identify the main erosion-control factors and their relevance. The Tablachaca River (3132 km2) and the Santa River (6815 km2), located in two adjacent Andes catchments, showed similar statistical daily rainfall and discharge variability but large differences in specific suspended-sediment yield (SSY). In order to investigate the main erosion factors, daily water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) datasets of the Santa and Tablachaca rivers were analysed. Mining activity in specific lithologies was identified as the major factor that controls the high SSY of the Tablachaca (2204 t km2 yr−1), which is four times greater than the Santa's SSY. These results show that the analysis of control factors of regional SSY at the Andes scale should be done carefully. Indeed, spatial data at kilometric scale and also daily water discharge and SSC time series are needed to define the main erosion factors along the entire Andean range.
Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual ...extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in elasticity) than the western sub-basins, experiencing high runoff coefficient and no change in streamflow elasticity to precipitation. These projections raise important issues for populations living near the rivers whose activity is regulated by the present annual cycle of waters. The question of their adaptability has already arisen.
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