Glaciers in High Mountain Asia are an important freshwater resource for large populations living downstream who rely on runoff for hydropower, irrigation, and municipal use. Projections of glacier ...mass change and runoff therefore have important socio-economic impacts. In this study, we use a new dataset of geodetic mass balance observations of almost all glaciers in the region to calibrate the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) using Bayesian inference. The new dataset enables the model to capture spatial variations in mass balance and the Bayesian inference enables the uncertainty associated with the model parameters to be quantified. Validation with historical mass balance observations shows the model performs well and the uncertainty is well captured. Projections of glacier mass change for 22 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) estimate that by the end of the century glaciers in High Mountain Asia will lose between 29 ± 12% (RCP 2.6) and 67 ± 10% (RCP 8.5) of their total mass relative to 2015. Considerable spatial and temporal variability exists between regions due to the climate forcing and glacier characteristics (hypsometry, ice thickness, elevation range). Projections of annual glacier runoff reveal most monsoon-fed river basins (Ganges, Brahmaputra) will hit a maximum (peak water) prior to 2050, while the Indus and other westerlies-fed river basins will likely hit peak water after 2050 due to significant contributions from excess glacier meltwater. Monsoon-fed watersheds are projected to experience large reductions in end-of-summer glacier runoff. Uncertainties in projections at regional scales are dominated by the uncertainty associated with the climate forcing, while at the individual glacier level, uncertainties associated with model parameters can be significant.
Changes in mass contained by mountain glaciers and ice caps can modify the Earth’s hydrological cycle on multiple scales. On a global scale, the mass loss from glaciers contributes to sea-level rise. ...On regional and local scales, glacier meltwater is an important contributor to and modulator of river flow. In light of strongly accelerated worldwide glacier retreat, the associated glacier mass losses raise concerns over the sustainability of water supplies in many parts of the world. Here, we review recent attempts to quantify glacier mass changes and their effect on river runoff on regional and global scales. We find that glacier runoff is defined ambiguously in the literature, hampering direct comparison of findings on the importance of glacier contribution to runoff. Despite consensus on the hydrological implications to be expected from projected future warming, there is a pressing need for quantifying the associated regional-scale changes in glacier runoff and responses in different climate regimes.
Very few global‐scale ice volume estimates are available for mountain glaciers and ice caps, although such estimates are crucial for any attempts to project their contribution to sea level rise in ...the future. We present a statistical method for deriving regional and global ice volumes from regional glacier area distributions and volume area scaling using glacier area data from ∼123,000 glaciers from a recently extended World Glacier Inventory. We compute glacier volumes and their sea level equivalent (SLE) for 19 glacierized regions containing all mountain glaciers and ice caps on Earth. On the basis of total glacierized area of 741 × 103 ± 68 × 103 km2, we estimate a total ice volume of 241 × 103 ± 29 × 103 km3, corresponding to 0.60 ± 0.07 m SLE, of which 32% is due to glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica apart from the ice sheets. However, our estimate is sensitive to assumptions on volume area scaling coefficients and glacier area distributions in the regions that are poorly inventoried, i.e., Antarctica, North America, Greenland, and Patagonia. This emphasizes the need for more volume observations, especially of large glaciers and a more complete World Glacier Inventory in order to reduce uncertainties and to arrive at firmer volume estimates for all mountain glaciers and ice caps.
Passive microwave satellite observations are used to identify the presence of surface meltwater across Antarctica at daily intervals from July 1979 to June 2020, with a focus on ice shelves. ...Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have the highest number of annual days of melt, with a maximum of 89 days. Over the entire time period, there are few significant linear trends in days of melt per year. High melt years can be split into two distinct categories, those with high melt days in Dronning Maud Land and Wilkes Land, and those with high melt days in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Bellingshausen Sea sector of West Antarctica. The first pattern coincides with significant negative correlations between melt days and spring and summer Southern Annular Mode. Both patterns also form the primary modes of spatial and annual variability in the dataset observed by Principal Component Analysis. Areas experiencing extended melt for the first time in years tend to show large decreases in subsequent winter microwave emissions due to structural changes in the firn. We use this to identify the impact of novel melt events, particularly over the austral summers of 1991/92 and 2015/16 on the Ross Ice Shelf.
A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first ...century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor glacier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006–2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 %. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 % of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission scenario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify additional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.
Abstract
Hourly melt and discharge of Storglaciären, a small glacier in Sweden, were computed for two melt seasons, applying temperature-index methods to a 30 m resolution grid for the melt ...component. The classical degree-day method yielded a good simulation of the seasonal patient of discharge, but the pronounced melt-induced daily discharge cycles were not captured. Modelled degree-day factors calculated for every hour and each gridcell from melt obtained from a distributed energy-balance model varied substantially, both diurnally and spatially. A new distributed temperature-index model is suggested, attempting to capture both the pronounced diurnal melt cycles and the spatial variations in melt due to the effects of surrounding topography. This is accomplished by including a radiation index in terms of potential clear-sky direct solar radiation, and thus, without the need for other data besides air temperature. This approach improved considerably the simulation of diurnal discharge fluctuations and yielded a more realistic spatial distribution of melt rates. The incorporation of measured global radiation to account for the reduction in direct solar radiation due to cloudiness did not lead to additional improvement in model performance.
A recent study (Millan and others, 2022a, Nature Geoscience 15(2), 124–129) claims that ice volume contained in all glaciers outside the ice sheets and its potential contribution to sea level is 20% ...less than previously estimated. However, the apparent decrease is largely due to differences in choice of domain, as the study excludes 80% of the glacier area in the Antarctic periphery that was included in previous global glacier volume estimates. The issue highlights the difficulty in separating glaciers from the ice-sheet proper, especially in Antarctica, and the need for both the glacier and ice-sheet communities to develop standards and protocols to avoid double-counting in global ice volume and mass-change assessments and projections. Process-based inversion models have replaced earlier scaling methods, but large uncertainties in global glacier volume estimation remain due to the ill-posed nature of the inversion problem and poorly constrained parameters emphasizing the need for more direct ice thickness observations.
Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 ...projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs.
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