Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation‐relevant characteristics to these responses is not well ...understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late‐designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate‐driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.
Resumen
Las redes de áreas protegidas ayudan a las especies a responder al calentamiento climático. Sin embargo, se sabe muy poco sobre la contribución de las características ambientales y relevantes para la conservación de un sitio a estas respuestas. Investigamos cómo la composición de las comunidades no reproductivas de aves acuáticas (97 especies) en la red (3,018 sitios) Natura 2000 de la Unión Europea (N2K) cambió en respuesta a los incrementos de la temperatura durante más de 25 años en 26 países europeos. Medimos la reorganización comunitaria con base en series temporales de abundancia recolectadas durante el Censo Internacional de Aves Acuáticas en relación con los objetivos de conservación de los sitios N2K, el periodo de asignación de fondos y el estado del plan de manejo. La composición comunitaria de las aves acuáticas en los sitios con planes de manejo y designados explícitamente para su protección cambió más rápidamente en respuesta al calentamiento climático que en otros sitios N2K. Los cambios comunitarios temporales no se vieron afectados por el periodo de asignación a pesar de una mayor exposición al incremento de la temperatura dentro de los sitios N2K de asignación tardía. Los sitios financiados por el programa LIFE tuvieron menos cambios comunitarios causados por el clima que los sitios que no recibieron este financiamiento. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que la política de conservación eficiente que ayuda a las comunidades de aves acuáticas a responder al calentamiento climático está asociada con sitios específicamente gestionados para las aves acuáticas.
Article impact statement: Protected area management and species targets help waterbird communities respond to climate warming inside the Natura 2000 network.
Aim Species are responding to climate change by changing their distributions, creating debate about the effectiveness of existing networks of protected areas. As a contribution to this debate, we ...assess whether regional winter abundances and distribution of the Smew Mergellus albellus, a migratory waterbird species listed on Annex I (EU Birds Directive) that overwinters exclusively in European wetlands, changed during 1990–2011, the role of global warming in driving distributional changes and the effectiveness of the network of Special Protection Areas (SPAs, EU Birds Directive) in the context of climate change. Location Europe. Methods We used site-specific counts (6,883 sites) from 16 countries covering the entire flyway to estimate annual abundance indices and trends at country, region (north-eastern, central and south-western) and flyway scales, inside and outside SPAs. We fitted autoregressive models to assess the effect of winter temperature on the annual abundance indices whilst accounting for autocorrelation. Results The Smew wintering distribution shifted north-eastwards in Europe in accordance with the predictions of global warming, with increasing numbers in the north-eastern region and declines in the central region. Trends in wintering numbers were more positive in SPAs on the north-eastern and south-western part of the flyway. However, a large proportion of the wintering population remains unprotected in north-eastern areas outside of the existing SPA network. Main conclusions SPAs accommodated climate-driven abundance changes in the north-eastern region of the wintering distribution by supporting increasing numbers of Smew in traditional and newly colonized areas. However, we highlight gaps in the current network, suggesting that urgent policy responses are needed. Given rapid changes in species distributions, we urge regular national and international assessments of the adequacy of the EU Natura 2000 network to ensure coherence in site-safeguard networks for this and other species.
We analysed annual changes in abundance of EurasianWigeon (Anas penelope) derived frommid-winter InternationalWaterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using ...log-linear Poisson regressionmodelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium,Netherlands,UKand France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated (P = 0.003) with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated (P = 0.05) with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting thatwinter severitymay also contribute to influence survival. However, adding winter severity to a model predicting population size based on annual reproductive success alone did not contribute tomore effectivelymodelling the observed changes in population size. Patterns in annual reproductive success seem therefore to largely explain the recent dynamics in population size of northwest European Wigeon. Summer NAO significantly and positively explained 27% of variance in annual breeding success. Other local factors such as eutrophication of breeding sites and changes in predation pressure undoubtedly contribute to changes in the annual production of young and differences in hunting pressure as well as winter severity affect annual survival rates. However, it seems likely that the observed flyway population trend since 1988 has been mostly influenced by climate effects on the breeding grounds affecting reproductive success and marginally on the winter quarters affecting survival. We urge improved demographic monitoring of the population to better assess annual survival and reproductive success.We also recommend development of an adaptive management framework to remove uncertainties in our knowledge of Wigeon population dynamics as information is forthcoming to better informmanagement, especially to attempt to harmonise the harvest with annual changes in demography to ensure sustainable exploitation of this important quarry species now and in the future.
We analysed annual changes in abundance of Eurasian Wigeon (Anas penelope) derived from mid-winter International Waterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using ...log-linear Poisson regression modelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium, Netherlands, UK and France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated (P =0.003) with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated (P = 0.05) with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting that winter severity may also contribute to influence survival. However, adding winter severity to a model predicting population size based on annual reproductive success alone did not contribute to more effectively modelling the observed changes in population size. Patterns in annual reproductive success seem therefore to largely explain the recent dynamics in population size of northwest European Wigeon. Summer NAO significantly and positively explained 27% of variance in annual breeding success. Other local factors such as eutrophication of breeding sites and changes in predation pressure undoubtedly contribute to changes in the annual production of young and differences in hunting pressure as well as winter severity affect annual survival rates. However, it seems likely that the observed flyway population trend since 1988 has been mostly influenced by climate effects on the breeding grounds affecting reproductive success and marginally on the winter quarters affecting survival. We urge improved demographic monitoring of the population to better assess annual survival and reproductive success. We also recommend development of an adaptive management framework to remove uncertainties in our knowledge of Wigeon population dynamics as information is forthcoming to better inform management, especially to attempt to harmonise the harvest with annual changes in demography to ensure sustainable exploitation of this important quarry species now and in the future. Selvitimme haapanan (Anas penelope) vuosittaisia runsausvaihteluita Lansi-Euroopan talvehtimisalueilla vuodesta 1988 lahtien hyodyntamalla kansainvalisia keskitalven vesilintulaskentatietoja (International Waterbird Census) ja niihin sovitettuja log-lineaarisia Poisson regressiomalleja. Talvikanta kasvoi alueen pohjois- ja itaosissa (Norja, Ruotsi, Tanska, Saksa ja Sveitsi), pysyi vakaana keskiosissa (Belgia, Hollanti, Iso-Britannia ja Ranska) seka taantui alueen etela- ja lansireunalla (Espanja ja Irlanti). Tama viittaa siihen, lajin talvirunsaus on siirtymassa kohti koillista osuen yhteen leudontuneiden talvien kanssa. Valtaosa kannasta (75 %, yli miljoona yksiloa) talvehtii kuitenkin edelleen vakaan kannan alueella Belgiassa, Hollannissa, Iso-Britanniassaja Ranskassa, minkatakia lajin talvehtimisalueen painopisteessa ei havaittu muutosta. Vuosittaiset koko alueen talvikannan vaihtelut olivat merkitsevasti positiivisesti yhteydessa edeltavan kesan poikastuottoon, joka mitattiin nuorten ja vanhojen lintujen suhteena tanskalaisessa metsastysaineistossa. Lisaksi vuosittaisella kannanmuutoksella oli suuntaa-antava positiivinen yhteys lajin keskeiselta talvialueelta mitatun tammi kuun keskilampotilan kanssa, mika viittaa siihen, etta kylmat talvet voivat vaikuttaa negatiivisesti lajin kannan kokoon. Naista kahdesta muuttujasta poikastuotto selitti kuitenkin voimakkaammin talvikannan vuosittaista vaihtelua. Kesainen laajaalainen NAO-ilmastoindeksi selitti merkitsevasti positiivisesti 27 % vuosittaisesta poikastuoton vaihtelusta. Poikastuottoon voi vaikuttaa myos paikalliset olosuhteet kuten rehevoityminen ja saalistuspaine pesimaalueilla. Metsastyspaineen seka talvi-ilmaston ankaruuden vaihtelulla on puolestaan todennakoisesti vaikutusta vuosittaiseen selviytyvyyteen. Vaikuttaa kuitenkin silta, etta vuodesta 1988 lahtien talvikannan vaihteluun on vaikuttanut etenkin pesimamenestys ja vahemmassa maarin talviaikainen selviytyvyys. Haapanakannan demografiselle seurannalle on tuloksiemme perusteella suurta tarvetta ja suosittelemme kehittamaan adaptiivista kannanhoitoa, jossa myos seurantatietojen epavarmuustekijat otetaan huomioon. Nailla toimenpiteilla pystymme tulevaisuudessa paremmin turvaamaan kestavan kannanverotuksen suhteessa kannanmuutokseen talla tarkealla riistalajilla.
The authors have analysed annual changes in abundance of EurasianWigeon derived from-mid-winter International Waterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using ...log-linear Poisson regressionmodelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium,Netherlands,UK and France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting thatwinter severitymay also contribute to influence survival.
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