Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other ...putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
Understanding why populations of some migratory species show a directional change over time, i.e. increase or decrease, while others do not, remains a challenge for ecological research. One possible ...explanation is that species with smaller non‐breeding ranges may have more pronounced directional population trends, and their populations are thus more sensitive to the variation in environmental conditions in their non‐breeding quarters. According to the serial residency hypothesis, this sensitivity should lead to higher magnitudes (i.e. absolute values) of population trends for species with smaller non‐breeding ranges, with the direction of trend being either positive or negative depending on the nature of the environmental change. We tested this hypothesis using population trends over 2001–2012 for 36 sub‐Saharan migratory passerine birds breeding in Europe. Namely, we related the magnitude of the species' population trends to the size of their sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, whilst controlling for factors including number of migration routes, non‐breeding habitat niche and wetness, breeding habitat type and life‐history strategy. The magnitude of species' population trends grew with decreasing absolute size of sub‐Saharan non‐breeding ranges, and this result remained significant when non‐breeding range size was expressed relative to the size of the breeding range. After repeating the analysis with the trend direction, the relationship with the non‐breeding range size disappeared, indicating that both population decreases and increases are frequent amongst species with small non‐breeding range sizes. Therefore, species with small non‐breeding ranges are at a higher risk of population decline due to adverse factors such as habitat loss or climatic extremes, but their populations are also more likely to increase when suitable conditions appear. As non‐breeding ranges may originate from stochasticity of non‐breeding site selection in naive birds (‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis), it is crucial to maintain a network of stable and resilient habitats over large areas of birds’ non‐breeding quarters.
International legislation forms a cornerstone of conservation, yet its efficacy is rarely quantified. We assess whether species listed on Annex I of the European Union (EU) Birds Directive, for which ...EU Member States are obliged to implement special conservation measures, differ systematically in their shortâterm (2001â2012) or longâterm (1980â2012) population trends from those of nonâAnnex I species. In both periods, Annex I species had more positive trends than nonâAnnex I species, particularly in countries that joined the EU earlier. There were additional signatures of climate change and life history strategy in the trends of species in one or both periods. Within Annex I species, longâdistance migrants fared significantly worse than other species, suggesting that enhanced protection on the breeding grounds alone may be insufficient for these species. We conclude that the EU's conservation legislation has had a demonstrably positive impact on target species, even during a period in which climate change has significantly affected populations.
Around fifteen thousand fieldworkers annually count breeding birds using standardized protocols in 28 European countries. The observations are collected by using country-specific and standardized ...protocols, validated, summarized and finally used for the production of continent-wide annual and long-term indices of population size changes of 170 species. Here, we present the database and provide a detailed summary of the methodology used for fieldwork and calculation of the relative population size change estimates. We also provide a brief overview of how the data are used in research, conservation and policy. We believe this unique database, based on decades of bird monitoring alongside the comprehensive summary of its methodology, will facilitate and encourage further use of the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme results.
The Mediterranean Basin is a biodiversity hotspot. Wetlands make a key contribution to this status, but many of them remain outside the Ramsar network fifty years after the establishment of the ...Ramsar Convention. Here we evaluate the extent to which the Mediterranean Ramsar network covers wetlands of international importance for wintering waterbirds using the Ramsar Convention criteria 2 (species of conservation concern), 5 (> 20,000 waterbirds) and 6 (1% of a population). These criteria were applied to 4186 sites in 24 Mediterranean countries using counts of 145 wintering waterbird species from 1991 to 2017. We identified 161 sites of international importance for waterbirds that have not yet been declared as Ramsar sites, which could be added to the 180 current Mediterranean Ramsar sites established based on waterbird criteria (criteria 5 and/or 6). Among these sites, a subset of 32 very important sites reached double the required level for at least one criterion and 95 were not protected by any site conservation status. Coastal wetlands represented half of the Ramsar gap for waterbirds. We identified that an additional 1218 monitored sites could be provisionally considered as internationally important and thus require more survey efforts to assess their status. This study highlights a lack of participation of the Mediterranean countries to build the Ramsar network for wetland protection. Our results should help policymakers and managers to prioritize future Ramsar site designation, notably in the Middle East and Western European region where important gaps were identified.
Declines in European bird populations are reported for decades but the direct effect of major anthropogenic pressures on such declines remains unquantified. Causal relationships between pressures and ...bird population responses are difficult to identify as pressures interact at different spatial scales and responses vary among species. Here, we uncover direct relationships between population time-series of 170 common bird species, monitored at more than 20,000 sites in 28 European countries, over 37 y, and four widespread anthropogenic pressures: agricultural intensification, change in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature change over the last decades. We quantify the influence of each pressure on population time-series and its importance relative to other pressures, and we identify traits of most affected species. We find that agricultural intensification, in particular pesticides and fertiliser use, is the main pressure for most bird population declines, especially for invertebrate feeders. Responses to changes in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature are more species-specific. Specifically, forest cover is associated with a positive effect and growing urbanisation with a negative effect on population dynamics, while temperature change has an effect on the dynamics of a large number of bird populations, the magnitude and direction of which depend on species' thermal preferences. Our results not only confirm the pervasive and strong effects of anthropogenic pressures on common breeding birds, but quantify the relative strength of these effects stressing the urgent need for transformative changes in the way of inhabiting the world in European countries, if bird populations shall have a chance of recovering.
Biodiversity loss is a major global challenge and minimizing extinction rates is the goal of several multilateral environmental agreements. Policy decisions require comprehensive, spatially explicit ...information on species' distributions and threats. We present an analysis of the conservation status of 14,669 European terrestrial, freshwater and marine species (ca. 10% of the continental fauna and flora), including all vertebrates and selected groups of invertebrates and plants. Our results reveal that 19% of European species are threatened with extinction, with higher extinction risks for plants (27%) and invertebrates (24%) compared to vertebrates (18%). These numbers exceed recent IPBES (Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) assumptions of extinction risk. Changes in agricultural practices and associated habitat loss, overharvesting, pollution and development are major threats to biodiversity. Maintaining and restoring sustainable land and water use practices is crucial to minimize future biodiversity declines.
Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the major drivers of change that can negatively affect biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services and human health; islands are particularly vulnerable to ...biological invasions. Horizon scanning can lead to prioritisation of IAS to inform decision-making and action; its scale and scope can vary depending on the need. We focussed on IAS likely to arrive, establish and affect biodiversity and human health on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. The scope of the horizon scanning was the entire island of Cyprus. We used a two-step consensus-building process in which experts reviewed and scored lists of alien species on their likelihood of arrival, establishment and potential to affect biodiversity, ecosystems and/or human health in the next 10 years. We reviewed 225 alien species, considered to be currently absent on Cyprus, across taxa and environments. We agreed upon 100 species that constituted very high, high or medium biodiversity risk, often arriving through multiple pathways of introduction. The remaining 125 species were ranked as low risk. The potential impacts on human health were documented for all 225 species; 82 species were considered to have a potentially negative impact on human health ranging from nuisance to disease transmission. The scope of the horizon scanning was the entire island of Cyprus, but the thematic groups also considered the relevance of the top 100 species to the Sovereign Base Areas of Cyprus, given their differing governance. This horizon scan provides the first systematic exercise to identify invasive alien species of potential concern to biodiversity and ecosystems but also human health within the Mediterranean region. The process and outcomes should provide other islands in the region and beyond with baseline data to improve IAS prioritisation and management.
Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so‐called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature ...isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm‐dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold‐dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization‐extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization‐extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm‐dwelling species or extirpation of cold‐dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed‐effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization‐extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.
Beneficios de las Áreas Protegidas para las Aves Acuáticas No Reproductoras que Están Ajustando su Distribución Debido al Calentamiento Climático
Resumen
El calentamiento climático está generando cambios en la distribución y en la composición comunitaria de las especies. Muchas de ellas tienen una deuda climática, es decir, los cambios en la distribución se atrasan con respecto a los cambios en las isoclinas térmicas. Dentro de las áreas protegidas (APs), los cambios comunitarios como respuesta al calentamiento climático pueden facilitarse mediante tasas mayores de colonización por especies de climas cálidos, pero también pueden mitigarse al reducir las tasas de extirpación de las especies de climas fríos. Se requiere una evaluación de la importancia relativa de los procesos de colonización‐extirpación para orientar las estrategias de conservación que buscan la reducción de la deuda climática y la conservación de las especies. Analizamos las dinámicas de colonización‐extirpación que participan en los cambios comunitarios como respuesta al clima dentro y fuera de las APs. Para realizar lo anterior, usamos datos tomados durante 25 años de la presencia de aves acuáticas no reproductoras en el Paleártico occidental (97 especies, 7,071 sitios, 39 países, 1993–2017). Usamos un marco de trabajo del índice de temperatura comunitaria (ITC) basado en las afinidades térmicas de las especies para así investigar la rotación de especies inducida por el incremento en la temperatura. Determinamos si el ajuste térmico en la comunidad estuvo asociado con la colonización por especies de climas cálidos o con la extirpación de especies de climas fríos al modelar el cambio mediante una desviación estándar del ITC (ITCDS). Con los modelos lineales de efectos mixtos investigamos si las comunidades dentro de las APs tenían una deuda climática más baja y patrones diferentes de cambio comunitario que las comunidades localizadas fuera de las APs. Con la combinación del ITC y deL ITCDS, las comunidades dentro de las APs tuvieron más especies, una mayor colonización, una menor extirpación y una deuda climática más baja (16%) que las comunidades fuera de las APs. Por lo tanto, nuestros resultados sugieren que las APs facilitan dos procesos independientes que moldean las dinámicas comunitarias y mantienen la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, el ajuste comunitario no fue lo suficientemente rápido para mantener el paso de los grandes incrementos en la temperatura de las regiones central y noreste del Paleártico occidental. Nuestros resultados resaltan el potencial que tiene la combinación de las medidas del ITC y del ICTDS para mejorar el entendimiento de los patrones de colonización‐extirpación causados por el calentamiento climático.
【摘要】
气候变暖正在引起物种分布和群落组成的变化。许多物种都背负着所谓的 “气候债务”, 即分布范围的变化滞后于温度的变化。气候变暖背景下, 保护地中适应温暖环境的物种较高的定殖率可以促进群落变化, 适应寒冷环境的物种灭绝率下降也可以减缓影响。评估定殖–灭绝过程的相对重要性, 对于制定旨在减少气候债和促进物种保护的保护战略而言十分重要。本研究利用西古北界非繁殖水鸟 25 年的出现记录 (97 个物种, 7071 个位点, 39 个国家, 1993–2017 年) , 评估了保护地内外鸟类群落响应气候变化过程中的定殖–灭绝动态。我们使用基于物种对温度亲和性的群落温度指数框架探究了温度升高引起的物种更替。通过模拟群落温度指数标准偏差的变化, 我们确定了群落对温度的调整是否与适应温暖环境的物种的定殖或适应寒冷环境的物种的灭绝有关。接下来, 我们利用线性混合效应模型分析了保护地内与保护地外的群落相比是否具有较低的气候债务和不同的群落变化格局。结合群落温度指数与其标准偏差, 我们发现保护地内的群落比保护地外的具有更多的物种、更高的定殖率、更低的灭绝率和更低的气候债务 (16%) 。因此, 我们的结果表明, 保护地促进了群落动态形成和生物多样性维持这两个独立过程。然而, 群落调整的速度不足以跟上古北界中部和东北部地区气温的大幅上升。我们的结果强调了群落温度指数和群落温度指数标准偏差这两个指标相结合, 有潜力提高对气候变暖导致的定殖–灭绝格局的理解。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Article impact statement: Protected areas are needed to facilitate waterbird distribution change in response to climate warming in the western Palearctic.
Migratory waterbirds require an effectively conserved cohesive network of wetland areas throughout their range and life-cycle. Under rapid climate change, protected area (PA) networks need to be able ...to accommodate climate-driven range shifts in wildlife if they are to continue to be effective in the future. Thus, we investigated geographical variation in the relationship between local temperature anomaly and the abundance of 61 waterbird species during the wintering season across Europe and North Africa during 1990–2015. We also compared the spatio-temporal effects on abundance of sites designated as PAs, Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs), both, or neither designation (Unlisted). Waterbird abundance was positively correlated with temperature anomaly, with this pattern being strongest towards north and east Europe. Waterbird abundance was higher inside IBAs, whether they were legally protected or not. Trends in waterbird abundance were also consistently more positive inside both protected and unprotected IBAs across the whole study region, and were positive in Unlisted wetlands in southwestern Europe and North Africa. These results suggest that IBAs are important sites for wintering waterbirds, but also that populations are shifting to unprotected wetlands (some of which are IBAs). Such IBAs may therefore represent robust candidate sites to expand the network of legally protected wetlands under climate change in north-eastern Europe. These results underscore the need for monitoring to understand how the effectiveness of site networks is changing under climate change.
PDF
