Summary Background Given the large burden of surgical conditions and the crosscutting nature of surgery, scale-up of basic surgical services is crucial to health-system strengthening. The Lancet ...Commission on Global Surgery proposed that, to meet populations' needs, countries should achieve 5000 major operations per 100 000 population per year. We modelled the possible scale-up of surgical services in 88 low-income and middle-income countries with a population greater than 1 million from 2012 to 2030 at various rates and quantified the associated costs. Methods Major surgery includes any intervention within an operating room involving tissue manipulation and anaesthesia. We used estimates for the number of major operations achieved per country annually and the number of operating rooms per region, and data from Mongolia and Mexico for trends in the number of operations. Unit costs included a cost per operation, proxied by caesarean section cost estimates; hospital construction data were used to estimate cost per operating room construction. We determined the year by which each country would achieve the Commission's target. We modelled three scenarios for the scale-up rate: actual rates (5·1% per year) and two “aspirational” rates, the rates achieved by Mongolia (8·9% annual) and Mexico (22·5% annual). We subsequently estimated the associated costs. Findings About half of the 88 countries would achieve the target by 2030 at actual rates of improvements, with up to two-thirds if the rate were increased to Mongolian rates. We estimate the total costs of achieving scale-up at US$300–420 billion (95% UI 190–600 billion) over 2012–30, which represents 4–8% of total annual health expenditures among low-income and lower middle-income countries and 1% among upper middle-income countries. Interpretation Scale-up of surgical services will not reach the target of 5000 operations per 100 000 by 2030 in about half of low-income and middle-income countries without increased funding, which countries and the international community must seek to achieve expansion of quality surgical services. Funding None.
Abstract Background Reducing maternal and neonatal deaths are important global health priorities. We have previously shown that up to a country-level caesarean delivery rate (CDRs) of roughly 19·0%, ...cesarean delivery rates and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) were inversely correlated. We investigated the absolute reductions in maternal and neonatal deaths if countries with low CDR increased their rates to a range of greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%. Methods We calculated maternal and neonatal deaths in 2013 and 2012, respectively, for countries with CDR 7·2% or less (N=45) with available data from the World Bank Development Indicators. We modelled the expected reduction in deaths in these countries if they had the 25th and 75th MMR and NMR percentiles observed for countries (N=48) with CDRs ranging from greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%. This model assumes that if countries with low CDRs increased their rates of caesarean delivery to greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%, they would achieve levels of MMR and NMR observed in countries with those CDRs. Findings We estimate 176 078 (95% CI 163 258–188 898) maternal and 1 117 257 (95% CI 1 033 611–1 200 902) neonatal deaths occurred in 45 countries with low CDRs in 2013 and 2012, respectively. If these countries had the 25th and 75th MMR and NMR percentiles (MMR, IQR 36–190; NMR, 9–24) observed in countries (N=48) with a CDR ranging from greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%, there would be a potential reduction of 109 762–163 513 and 279 584–803 129 maternal and neonatal deaths, respectively. Interpretation Increasing caesarean delivery in countries with low CDRs could avert as many as 163 513 maternal deaths and 803 129 neonatal deaths annually. These findings assume that as health systems develop the capacity to deliver surgical care, there is a concurrent improvement in the quality of care and in the ability to rescue women and neonates who would otherwise die. Improving access to safe caesarean delivery should be a central focus in surgical care globally. Funding None.
Abstract Background Recent work has indicated an increase in surgical services, especially in resource poor settings. However, the rate of growth is poorly understood and likely insufficient to meet ...public health needs. We previously identified a range of 4344 to 5028 operations per 100 000 population annually to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population. We evaluate rates of growth in surgery and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. Methods We aggregated 2004 and 2012 country-level surgical rate estimates into the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size and estimate rate of growth between these years. We then extrapolated the time it will take to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population based on linear rates of change. Findings All but two regions (central Europe and southern Latin America) experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years; the fastest growth occurred in regions with the lowest surgical rates. 14 regions representing 79% of the world's population (5·5 billion people) did not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity grows at current rates, seven regions (central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, north Africa and middle east, south Asia, southeast Asia, and western sub-Saharan Africa) will not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold by 2035; Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach this level until 2124. Interpretation The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable, but the largest growth rates were noted in the poorest regions. Although this study does not address the quality of care, and rates of surgery are unlikely to change linearly, this exercise is useful to project how many years it could take regions to reach specific surgical rates. At current rates of growth, 4·9 billion people (70% of the world's population) will still be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgery in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met as part of integrated health system development. Funding None.
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