Template for Rapid Iterative Consensus of Experts (TRICE) Chater, Angel M; Shorter, Gillian W; Swanson, Vivien ...
International journal of environmental research and public health,
09/2021, Volume:
18, Issue:
19
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Public health emergencies require rapid responses from experts. Differing viewpoints are common in science, however, "mixed messaging" of varied perspectives can undermine credibility of experts; ...reduce trust in guidance; and act as a barrier to changing public health behaviours. Collation of a unified voice for effective knowledge creation and translation can be challenging. This work aimed to create a method for rapid psychologically-informed expert guidance during the COVID-19 response.
TRICE (Template for Rapid Iterative Consensus of Experts) brings structure, peer-review and consensus to the rapid generation of expert advice. It was developed and trialled with 15 core members of the British Psychological Society COVID-19 Behavioural Science and Disease Prevention Taskforce.
Using TRICE; we have produced 18 peer-reviewed COVID-19 guidance documents; based on rapid systematic reviews; co-created by experts in behavioural science and public health; taking 4-156 days to produce; with approximately 18 experts and a median of 7 drafts per output. We provide worked-examples and key considerations; including a shared ethos and theoretical/methodological framework; in this case; the Behaviour Change Wheel and COM-B.
TRICE extends existing consensus methodologies and has supported public health collaboration; co-creation of guidance and translation of behavioural science to practice through explicit processes in generating expert advice for public health emergencies.
Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so‐called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature ...isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm‐dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold‐dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization‐extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization‐extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm‐dwelling species or extirpation of cold‐dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed‐effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization‐extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.
Beneficios de las Áreas Protegidas para las Aves Acuáticas No Reproductoras que Están Ajustando su Distribución Debido al Calentamiento Climático
Resumen
El calentamiento climático está generando cambios en la distribución y en la composición comunitaria de las especies. Muchas de ellas tienen una deuda climática, es decir, los cambios en la distribución se atrasan con respecto a los cambios en las isoclinas térmicas. Dentro de las áreas protegidas (APs), los cambios comunitarios como respuesta al calentamiento climático pueden facilitarse mediante tasas mayores de colonización por especies de climas cálidos, pero también pueden mitigarse al reducir las tasas de extirpación de las especies de climas fríos. Se requiere una evaluación de la importancia relativa de los procesos de colonización‐extirpación para orientar las estrategias de conservación que buscan la reducción de la deuda climática y la conservación de las especies. Analizamos las dinámicas de colonización‐extirpación que participan en los cambios comunitarios como respuesta al clima dentro y fuera de las APs. Para realizar lo anterior, usamos datos tomados durante 25 años de la presencia de aves acuáticas no reproductoras en el Paleártico occidental (97 especies, 7,071 sitios, 39 países, 1993–2017). Usamos un marco de trabajo del índice de temperatura comunitaria (ITC) basado en las afinidades térmicas de las especies para así investigar la rotación de especies inducida por el incremento en la temperatura. Determinamos si el ajuste térmico en la comunidad estuvo asociado con la colonización por especies de climas cálidos o con la extirpación de especies de climas fríos al modelar el cambio mediante una desviación estándar del ITC (ITCDS). Con los modelos lineales de efectos mixtos investigamos si las comunidades dentro de las APs tenían una deuda climática más baja y patrones diferentes de cambio comunitario que las comunidades localizadas fuera de las APs. Con la combinación del ITC y deL ITCDS, las comunidades dentro de las APs tuvieron más especies, una mayor colonización, una menor extirpación y una deuda climática más baja (16%) que las comunidades fuera de las APs. Por lo tanto, nuestros resultados sugieren que las APs facilitan dos procesos independientes que moldean las dinámicas comunitarias y mantienen la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, el ajuste comunitario no fue lo suficientemente rápido para mantener el paso de los grandes incrementos en la temperatura de las regiones central y noreste del Paleártico occidental. Nuestros resultados resaltan el potencial que tiene la combinación de las medidas del ITC y del ICTDS para mejorar el entendimiento de los patrones de colonización‐extirpación causados por el calentamiento climático.
【摘要】
气候变暖正在引起物种分布和群落组成的变化。许多物种都背负着所谓的 “气候债务”, 即分布范围的变化滞后于温度的变化。气候变暖背景下, 保护地中适应温暖环境的物种较高的定殖率可以促进群落变化, 适应寒冷环境的物种灭绝率下降也可以减缓影响。评估定殖–灭绝过程的相对重要性, 对于制定旨在减少气候债和促进物种保护的保护战略而言十分重要。本研究利用西古北界非繁殖水鸟 25 年的出现记录 (97 个物种, 7071 个位点, 39 个国家, 1993–2017 年) , 评估了保护地内外鸟类群落响应气候变化过程中的定殖–灭绝动态。我们使用基于物种对温度亲和性的群落温度指数框架探究了温度升高引起的物种更替。通过模拟群落温度指数标准偏差的变化, 我们确定了群落对温度的调整是否与适应温暖环境的物种的定殖或适应寒冷环境的物种的灭绝有关。接下来, 我们利用线性混合效应模型分析了保护地内与保护地外的群落相比是否具有较低的气候债务和不同的群落变化格局。结合群落温度指数与其标准偏差, 我们发现保护地内的群落比保护地外的具有更多的物种、更高的定殖率、更低的灭绝率和更低的气候债务 (16%) 。因此, 我们的结果表明, 保护地促进了群落动态形成和生物多样性维持这两个独立过程。然而, 群落调整的速度不足以跟上古北界中部和东北部地区气温的大幅上升。我们的结果强调了群落温度指数和群落温度指数标准偏差这两个指标相结合, 有潜力提高对气候变暖导致的定殖–灭绝格局的理解。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Article impact statement: Protected areas are needed to facilitate waterbird distribution change in response to climate warming in the western Palearctic.
Aim
Many species are showing distribution shifts in response to environmental change. We explored (a) the effects of inter‐annual variation in winter weather conditions on non‐breeding distributional ...abundance of waterbirds exploiting different habitats (deep‐water, shallow water, farmland) and (b) the long‐term shift in the population centroid of these species and investigate its link to changes in weather conditions.
Location
Europe.
Methods
We fitted generalized additive mixed Models to a large‐scale, 24‐year dataset (1990–2013) describing the winter distributional abundance of 25 waterbird species. We calculated the annual and long‐term (3‐year periods) population centroid of each species and used the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index to explain the inter‐annual and long‐term shifts in their location.
Results
(a) Year‐to‐year southwestwards shifts in the population centroids of deep‐ and shallow‐water species were linked to negative NAO values. Shallow‐water species shifted northeastwards associated with positive NAO values and the distance shifted increased with increasing NAO. Deep‐water species shifted northeastwards up to zero NAO indices, but showed no further increase at higher NAO values. (b) Deep‐water species showed long‐term northeastwards shifts in distributional abundance throughout the 1990s and the 2000s. Shallow‐water species, on the other hand, shifted northeastwards during the 1990s and early 2000s, but southwestwards thereafter. There were no significant links between the NAO and year‐to‐year movements or long‐term shifts in farmland species’ population centroid.
Main Conclusions
We provide evidence for a link between both year‐to‐year and long‐term changes in waterbird winter distributional abundances at large geographical scales to short‐ and long‐term changes in winter weather conditions. We also show that species using shallow water, deep‐water and farmland habitats responded differently, especially at high NAO values. As well as important ecological implications, these findings contribute to the development of future conservation measures for these species under current and future climate change.
The use of behavioural science and behaviour change within local authorities and public health has supported healthful change; as evidenced by its importance and contribution to reducing harm during ...the COVID-19 pandemic. It can provide valuable information to enable the creation of evidence-based intervention strategies, co-created with the people they are aimed at, in an effective and efficient manner.
This study aimed to use the COM-B model to understand the Capability, Opportunity and Motivation of performing a constellation of eight COVID-19 disease prevention behaviours related to the slogans of 'Hands, Face, Space, Fresh Air'; 'Find, Isolate, Test, (FIT), and Vaccinate' in those employed in workplaces identified as high risk for transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) to support intervention development.
This qualitative study recruited twenty-three participants (16 female, 7 male), who were interviewed from three environments (schools, care homes, warehouses) across three local authorities. Semi-structured interviews were analysed using thematic analysis.
Ten core themes were identified inductively; (1) knowledge and skills, (2) regulating the behaviour, (3) willingness to act, (4) necessity and concerns, (5) emotional impact, (6) conducive environment, (7) societal influence, (8) no longer united against COVID-19, (9) credible leadership, and (10) inconsistent adherence to COVID-19 prevention behaviours. Themes were then deductively mapped to the COM-B model of behaviour change and the theoretical domains framework and a logic model using the behaviour change wheel (BCW) was produced to inform intervention design.
This study offers a novel approach to analysis that has included eight behaviours within a single thematic analysis and COM-B diagnosis. This will enable local authorities to direct limited resources to overarching priorities. Of key importance, was the need for supportive and credible leadership, alongside developing interventions collaboratively with the target audience. COVID-19 has had an emotional toll on those interviewed, however, promoting the value of disease prevention behaviours, over and above their costs, can facilitate behaviour. Developing knowledge and skills, through education, training, marketing and modelling can further facilitate behaviour. This supports guidance produced by the British Psychological Society COVID-19 behavioural science and disease prevention taskforce.
p21-activated kinase 1 (PAK1) has an important role in transducing signals in several oncogenic pathways. The concept of inhibiting this kinase has garnered significant interest over the past decade, ...particularly for targeting cancers associated with PAK1 amplification. Animal studies with the selective group I PAK (pan-PAK1, 2, 3) inhibitor G-5555 from the pyrido2,3-dpyrimidin-7-one class uncovered acute toxicity with a narrow therapeutic window. To attempt mitigating the toxicity, we introduced significant structural changes, culminating in the discovery of the potent pyridone side chain analogue G-9791. Mouse tolerability studies with this compound, other members of this series, and compounds from two structurally distinct classes revealed persistent toxicity and a correlation of minimum toxic concentrations and PAK1/2 mediated cellular potencies. Broad screening of selected PAK inhibitors revealed PAK1, 2, and 3 as the only overlapping targets. Our data suggest acute cardiovascular toxicity resulting from the inhibition of PAK2, which may be enhanced by PAK1 inhibition, and cautions against continued pursuit of pan-group I PAK inhibitors in drug discovery.
Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, and many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. As the ...changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the climate and air quality of the surrounding continents, it is important to fully understand how and why the changes are taking place, not least to predict how the region will change in the future. To this end, this article characterizes the recent observed changes in the North Atlantic region, especially in the period 2005–2016, across many different aspects of the system including: atmospheric circulation; atmospheric composition; clouds and aerosols; ocean circulation and properties; and the cryosphere. Recent changes include: an increase in the speed of the North Atlantic jet stream in winter; a southward shift in the North Atlantic jet stream in summer, associated with a weakening summer North Atlantic Oscillation; increases in ozone and methane; increases in net absorbed radiation in the mid‐latitude western Atlantic, linked to an increase in the abundance of high level clouds and a reduction in low level clouds; cooling of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, concomitant with increases in the western subtropical gyre, and a decline in the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation; a decline in Atlantic sector Arctic sea ice and rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. There are many interactions between these changes, but these interactions are poorly understood. This article concludes by highlighting some of the key outstanding questions.
This article characterizes the recent changes in the North Atlantic region, especially in the period 2005–2016, across many different aspects of the climate system. Recent changes include: an increase of the North Atlantic jet stream speed in winter; increases in ozone and methane; a cooling of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre; a decline in the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation; and a decline in Atlantic sector Arctic sea ice and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Signaling pathways intersecting with the p21-activated kinases (PAKs) play important roles in tumorigenesis and cancer progression. By recognizing that the limitations of FRAX1036 (1) were chiefly ...associated with the highly basic amine it contained, we devised a mitigation strategy to address several issues such as hERG activity. The 5-amino-1,3-dioxanyl moiety was identified as an effective means of reducing pK a and logP simultaneously. When positioned properly within the scaffold, this group conferred several benefits including potency, pharmacokinetics, and selectivity. Mouse xenograft PK/PD studies were carried out using an advanced compound, G-5555 (12), derived from this approach. These studies concluded that dose-dependent pathway modulation was achievable and paves the way for further in vivo investigations of PAK1 function in cancer and other diseases.
When transfer in labour takes place from a birth centre to a tertiary maternity hospital the woman, her partner and the midwife (the triad) are involved, representing three different perspectives. ...The purpose of this paper is to explore the integration of these intrapartum transfer experiences for the birth triad.
Giorgi’s descriptive phenomenological method of analysis was used to explore the ‘lived’ experiences of Western Australian women, their partners and midwives across the birth journey. Forty-five interviews were conducted.
Findings revealed that experiences of intrapartum transfer were unique to each member of the triad (woman, partner and midwife) and yet there were also shared experiences. All three had three themes in common: ‘The same journey through three different lenses’; ‘In my own world’ and ‘Talking about the birth’. The woman and partner shared two themes: ‘Lost birth dream’ and ‘Grateful to return to a familiar environment’. The woman and midwife both had: ‘Gratitude for continuity of care model’ and the partner and midwife both found they were: ‘Struggling to adapt to a changing care model’ and their ‘Inside knowledge was not appreciated’.
Insight into the unique integrated experiences during a birth centre intrapartum transfer can inform midwives, empowering them to better support parents through antenatal education before and by offering discussion about the birth and transfer after. Translation of findings to practice also reinforces how midwives can support their colleagues by recognising the accompanying midwife’s role and knowledge of the woman.
Objective A mixed methods study exploring the UK general public's willingness to donate human biosamples (HBSs) for biomedical research. Setting Cross-sectional focus groups followed by an online ...survey. Participants Twelve focus groups (81 participants) selectively sampled to reflect a range of demographic groups; 1110 survey responders recruited through a stratified sampling method with quotas set on sex, age, geographical location, socioeconomic group and ethnicity. Main outcome measures (1) Identify participants’ willingness to donate HBSs for biomedical research, (2) explore acceptability towards donating different types of HBSs in various settings and (3) explore preferences regarding use and access to HBSs. Results 87% of survey participants thought donation of HBSs was important and 75% wanted to be asked to donate in general. Responders who self-reported having some or good knowledge of the medical research process were significantly more likely to want to donate (p<0.001). Reasons why focus group participants saw donation as important included: it was a good way of reciprocating for the medical treatment received; it was an important way of developing drugs and treatments; residual tissue would otherwise go to waste and they or their family members might benefit. The most controversial types of HBSs to donate included: brain post mortem (29% would donate), eyes post mortem (35%), embryos (44%), spare eggs (48%) and sperm (58%). Regarding the use of samples, there were concerns over animal research (34%), research conducted outside the UK (35%), and research conducted by pharmaceutical companies (56%), although education and discussion were found to alleviate such concerns. Conclusions There is a high level of public support and willingness to donate HBSs for biomedical research. Underlying concerns exist regarding the use of certain types of HBSs and conditions under which they are used. Improved education and more controlled forms of consent for sensitive samples may mitigate such concerns.
When transfer in labour takes place from a woman-centred, midwifery led centre to a tertiary maternity hospital it is accepted that women are negatively affected, however the midwife's role is ...unevaluated, there is no published literature exploring their experience. This study aimed to describe these experiences.
Giorgi's descriptive phenomenological method of analysis was used to explore the ‘lived’ experiences of the midwives. Seventeen interviews of transferring midwives took place and data saturation was achieved.
The overall findings suggest that midwives find transfer in labour challenging, both emotionally and practically. Five main themes emerged: (1) ‘The midwife's internal conversation’ with subtheme: ‘Feeling under pressure’, (2) ‘Challenged to find a role in changing circumstances’ with subtheme: ‘Varying degrees of support’, (3) ‘Feeling out of place’ with subtheme: ‘Caught in the middle of different models of care, (4) ‘A constant support for the parents across the labour and birth process’ with subthemes: ‘Acknowledging the parents’ loss of their desired birth’ and (5) ‘The midwives’ need for debrief’.
Midwives acknowledged the challenge of finding the balance between fulfilling parents’ birth plan wishes with hospital protocol and maintaining safety. Transfer for fetal or maternal compromise caused anxiety and concern. The benefits of providing continuity of care were acknowledged by the midwife's knowledge of the woman and her history but these were not always recognised by the receiving team. Discussing the transfer story afterwards helped midwives review their practice. Effective communication between all stakeholders is essential throughout the transfer process.
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