Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models ...participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Plain Language Summary
The melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) will result in higher sea level in the future. How sea level will change depends in part on how the atmosphere and ocean warm and how this affects the ice sheets. We use multiple ice sheet models to estimate possible future sea levels under climate scenarios from the models participating in the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), which generally indicate a warmer world that the previous effort (CMIP5). Our results show that the possible future sea level change due Antarctica is similar for CMIP5 and CMIP6, but the warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models leads to higher sea‐level contributions from Greenland by the end of the century.
Key Points
We compare results from an ice sheet model inter‐comparison forced using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 and phase 5 climate projections
Projected sea level at 2100 is higher for Greenland under CMIP6 scenarios than CMIP5, but similar for Antarctica under both scenarios
CMIP6 warmer climate results in increased Greenland surface melt while increased snowfall mitigates loss from ocean warming for Antarctica
Electrical polarization and defect transport are examined in 0.8BaTiO3–0.2BiZn0.5Ti0.5O3, an attractive capacitor material for high power electronics. Oxygen vacancies are suggested to be the ...majority charge carrier at or below 250°C with a grain conduction hopping activation energy of 0.97 eV and 0.92 eV for thermally stimulated depolarization current (TSDC) and impedance spectroscopy measurements, respectively. At higher temperature, thermally generated electronic conduction with an activation energy of 1.6 eV is dominant. Significant oxygen vacancy concentration is indicated (up to ∼1%) due to cation vacancy formation (i.e., acceptor defects) from observed Bi (and likely Zn) volatility. Oxygen vacancy diffusivity is estimated to be 10−12.8 cm2/s at 250°C. Low diffusivity and high activation energies are indicative of significant defect interactions. Dipolar oxygen vacancy defects are also indicated, with an activation energy of 0.59 eV from TSDC measurements. The large oxygen vacancy content leads to a short lifetime during high voltage (30 kV/cm), high temperature (250°C) direct current (DC) electrical measurements.
Abstract Global mean sea level has risen at an accelerating rate in the last decade and will continue to rise for centuries. The Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica is a critical region for ...present and future ice loss, however most studies consider only a worst-case future for the region. Here we use ice sheet model sensitivity experiments to investigate the centennial scale implications of short-term periods of enhanced ocean driven sub-ice shelf melting on ice loss and assess what future reduction in melting is necessary to mitigate ice stream retreat and offset global sea level rise. Our findings reveal that restoring elevated melt rates to present-day levels within 100 years causes rates of ice discharge to immediately decline, thereby limiting the overall sea level contribution from the region. However, while ice stream re-advance and slowed ice discharge is possible with reduced basal melting, a centennial scale increase in accumulation must occur to offset the extensive ice loss.
Phase transformations under high strain rates (dynamic compression) are examined in situ on ZrW2O8, a negative thermal expansion ternary ceramic displaying polymorphism. Amorphization, consistent ...with prior quasi-static measurements, was observed at a peak pressure of 3.0 GPa under dynamic conditions, which approximate those expected during fabrication. Evidence of partial amorphization was observed at lower pressure (1.8 GPa) that may be kinetically restrained by the short (<∼150 ns) time scale of the applied high pressure. The impact of kinetics of pressure-induced amorphization from material fabrication methods is briefly discussed.
Abstract
Of all the components of the global sea-level budget, the future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most uncertain in sea-level rise projections. Dynamic ice sheet model ...simulations show considerable overlap in the projected Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and the timescale at which scenario dependence will emerge is unclear. With historically constrained ice sheet simulations and a statistical emulator, we demonstrate that a high-emissions signature of the Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution will not unambiguously emerge from the wide potential range of low-emission sea-level projections for over 100 years due to current limitations in our understanding in ice flow and sliding. However, the results also indicate that the total global warming that occurs over the 21st century controls the resulting long-term Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level commitment, with multi-meter differences between the highest and lowest emissions scenarios in subsequent centuries.
A premature stop codon in ACTN3 resulting in α-actinin-3 deficiency (the ACTN3 577XX genotype) is common in humans and reduces strength, muscle mass, and fast-twitch fiber diameter, but increases the ...metabolic efficiency of skeletal muscle. Linkage disequilibrium data suggest that the ACTN3 R577X allele has undergone positive selection during human evolution. The allele has been hypothesized to be adaptive in environments with scarce resources where efficient muscle metabolism would be selected. Here we test this hypothesis by using recently developed comparative methods that account for evolutionary relatedness and gene flow among populations. We find evidence that the ACTN3 577XX genotype evolved in association with the global latitudinal gradient. Our results suggest that environmental variables related to latitudinal variation, such as species richness and mean annual temperature, may have influenced the adaptive evolution of ACTN3 577XX during recent human history.
Modern observations appear to link warming oceanic conditions with Antarctic ice sheet grounding-line retreat. Yet, interpretations of past ice sheet retreat over the last deglaciation in the Ross ...Embayment, Antarctica's largest catchment, differ considerably and imply either extremely high or very low sensitivity to environmental forcing. To investigate this, we perform regional ice sheet simulations using a wide range of atmosphere and ocean forcings. Constrained by marine and terrestrial geological data, these models predict earliest retreat in the central embayment and rapid terrestrial ice sheet thinning during the Early Holocene. We find that atmospheric conditions early in the deglacial period can enhance or diminish ice sheet sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, thereby controlling the initial timing and spatial pattern of grounding-line retreat. Through the Holocene, however, grounding-line position is much more sensitive to subshelf melt rates, implicating ocean thermal forcing as the key driver of past ice sheet retreat.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent ...under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.
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