Satellite precipitation estimate (SPE) dedicated to reservoir inflow forecasting is very attractive as it can provide near-real-time information for reservoir monitoring. However, the potential of ...SPE retrievals with fine temporal resolution in supporting the high-quality pluvial flood inflow forecast and robust short-term operation of a reservoir remains unclear. In this study, the hydrological applicability of half-hourly Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) heavy rainfall data was explored using a synthetic experiment of flood inflow forecast at sub-daily to daily lead times and resultant reservoir short-term operation. The event-based flood forecast was implemented via the rainfall–runoff model GR4H driven by the forecasted IMERG. Then, inflow forecast-informed reservoir multi-objective optimal operation was conducted via a numerical reservoir system and assessed by the risk-based robustness indices encompassing reliability, resilience, vulnerability for water supply, and flood risk ratio for flood prevention. Selecting the Wan’an reservoir located in eastern China as the test case, the results show that the flood forecast forced with IMERG exhibits slightly lower accuracy than that driven by the gauge rainfall across varying lead times. For a specific robustness index, its trends between IMERG and gauge rainfall inputs are comparable, while its magnitude depends on varying lead times and scale ratios (i.e., the reservoir scale). The pattern that the forecast errors in IMERG increase with the lead time is changed in the resultant inflow forecast series and dynamics in the robustness indices for the optimal operation decision. This indicates that the flood forecast model coupled with reservoir operation system could partly compensate the original SPE errors. Our study highlights the acceptable hydrological applicability of IMERG rainfall towards reservoir inflow forecast for robust operation, despite the intrinsic error in SPE.
Main goal of the JUNO experiment is to determine the neutrino mass ordering using a 20 kt liquid-scintillator detector. Its key feature is an excellent energy resolution of at least 3% at 1 MeV, for ...which its instruments need to meet a certain quality and thus have to be fully characterized. More than 20,000 20-inch PMTs have been received and assessed by JUNO after a detailed testing program which began in 2017 and elapsed for about four years. Based on this mass characterization and a set of specific requirements, a good quality of all accepted PMTs could be ascertained. This paper presents the performed testing procedure with the designed testing systems as well as the statistical characteristics of all 20-inch PMTs intended to be used in the JUNO experiment, covering more than fifteen performance parameters including the photocathode uniformity. This constitutes the largest sample of 20-inch PMTs ever produced and studied in detail to date, i.e. 15,000 of the newly developed 20-inch MCP-PMTs from Northern Night Vision Technology Co. (NNVT) and 5000 of dynode PMTs from Hamamatsu Photonics K. K.(HPK).
Flood wave superposition (FWS) of upstream and tributary rivers, as a typical compound hydrological event, may lead to considerable downstream flood hazards. In spite of this, the quantitative ...identification of FWS classification so far remains elusive. In this study, we quantitatively examined the typical matching patterns of FWS based on flood peak magnitude and timing between the upstream and tributary discharge, to evaluate the flood severity for both present-day conditions and future climate projections. The future FWS projection was realized using hydrological modeling coupled with multiple outputs of global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios. A triple point of discharge stations, including upstream, downstream and tributary stations, located at a river confluence of the Poyang Lake Basin, China, was selected as the study area. The results revealed that the frequency of perfect temporal matching (0-day time lag) of projected peaks between upstream and tributary floods increased from 61% in the reference period to >68% and > 66% in the future under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, both the future numbers and frequencies of the projected peaks between upstream and tributary floods with both perfect temporal and magnitude matching (the classification associated with the most damage in FWS) would substantially increase across all GCMs under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5. These findings indicate that future FWS is expected to experience increasing severity due to the changing climate under no matter RCP 2.6 or 8.5 emission scenarios. Overall, it is suggested that effective adaptation strategies be developed in order to stagger the timing of upstream and tributary floods in the future.
A
bstract
We study damping signatures at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a medium-baseline reactor neutrino oscillation experiment. These damping signatures are motivated by ...various new physics models, including quantum decoherence,
ν
3
decay, neutrino absorption, and wave packet decoherence. The phenomenological effects of these models can be characterized by exponential damping factors at the probability level. We assess how well JUNO can constrain these damping parameters and how to disentangle these different damping signatures at JUNO. Compared to current experimental limits, JUNO can significantly improve the limits on
τ
3
/
m
3
in the
ν
3
decay model, the width of the neutrino wave packet
σ
x
, and the intrinsic relative dispersion of neutrino momentum
σ
rel
.
Electricity transmission in a grid-connected system provides an effective solution to promoting clean energy accommodation. However, with arbitrary determination in current operation models, the ...clean energy utilization ratio (CEUR) is not satisfactory largely due to the lack of electricity curtailment (the electricity equivalent of clean energy curtailment) cost-dependent optimization. In this study, a curtailment cost-dependent multi-objective operation (CCMO) model was proposed to complementarily operate a grid-connected hybrid energy system, identify optimal CEUR, and thus maximally reduce electricity curtailment. The CCMO model centers on coupling the punishment cost of electricity curtailment with the multi-objective function defined as the total cost of each grid component. The CCMO model was solved to derive the optimal equilibrium solution determined based on multiple non-dominated solutions. A grid-connected hybrid energy system including the Yunnan, Guangdong, and Guangxi Power Grids was used to test the model performance. The results showed that the CCMO model’s CEUR was up to 100% at hourly scale and 96.9% on daily average, which were both significantly higher than those in the current operation models. Furthermore, the CCMO’s optimal equilibrium solution, i.e., respective minimum total cost of each grid component, can also identify optimal transmission schemes of the daily channel utilization to make the peak utilization hours largest.
Satellite precipitation estimates (SPE), characterized by high spatial-temporal resolution, have been increasingly applied to hydrological modeling. However, the errors and bias inherent in SPE are ...broadly recognized. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent input uncertainty in hydrological models driven by SPE contributes to the total prediction uncertainty, resulting from difficulties in uncertainty partitioning. This study comprehensively quantified the input uncertainty contribution of three precipitation inputs (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) near-real-time 3B42RTv7 product, TRMM post-real-time 3B42v7 product and gauge-based precipitation) in rainfall-runoff simulation, using two hydrological models, the lumped daily Ge´nie Rural (GR) and distributed Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) models. For this purpose, the variance decomposition method was applied to disaggregate the total streamflow modeling uncertainty into seven components (uncertainties in model input, parameter, structure and their three first-order interaction effects, and residual error). The results showed that the total uncertainty in GR was lowest, moderate and highest when forced by gauge precipitation, 3B42v7 and 3B42RTv7, respectively. While the total uncertainty in CREST driven by 3B42v7 was lowest among the three input data sources. These results highlighted the superiority of post-real-time 3B42v7 in hydrological modeling as compared to real-time 3B42RTv7. All the input uncertainties in CREST driven by 3B42v7, 3B42RTv7 and gauge-based precipitation were lower than those in GR correspondingly. In addition, the input uncertainty was lowest in 3B42v7-driven CREST model while highest in gauge precipitation-driven GR model among the six combination schemes (two models combined with three precipitation inputs abovementioned). The distributed CREST model was capable of making better use of the spatial distribution advantage of SPE especially for the TRMM post-real-time 3B42v7 product. This study provided new insights into the SPE’s hydrological utility in the context of uncertainty, being significant for improving the suitability and adequacy of SPE to hydrological application.
The physics potential of detecting 8B solar neutrinos will be exploited at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), in a model-independent manner by using three distinct channels of the ...charged current (CC), neutral current (NC), and elastic scattering (ES) interactions. Due to the largest-ever mass of 13C nuclei in the liquid scintillator detectors and the expected low background level, 8B solar neutrinos are observable in the CC and NC interactions on 13C for the first time. By virtue of optimized event selections and muon veto strategies, backgrounds from the accidental coincidence, muon-induced isotopes, and external backgrounds can be greatly suppressed. Excellent signal-to-background ratios can be achieved in the CC, NC, and ES channels to guarantee the observation of the 8B solar neutrinos. From the sensitivity studies performed in this work, we show that JUNO, with 10 yr of data, can reach the 1σ precision levels of 5%, 8%, and 20% for the 8B neutrino flux, sin2θ12, and Δm212, respectively. Probing the details of both solar physics and neutrino physics would be unique and helpful. In addition, when combined with the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory measurement, the world's best precision of 3% is expected for the measurement of the 8B neutrino flux.
BESIII Data Management System Ma, Qiumei; Zhang, Yao
EPJ Web of Conferences,
2019, Volume:
214
Journal Article, Conference Proceeding
Peer reviewed
Open access
The BESIII experiment has got about 1PB raw data and 1PB DST data from 2009 to date, so how to manage these data and condition data well is very important. The BESIII data managment system has run ...successfully for ten years, which has offered a full-featured, time-tested approach to BESIII offline and physics users. We designed an almost perfect structure for the system and had good backup and maintance strategy.
In making short-term optimal operation schemes of cascade reservoirs, water flow hysteresis between the upper reservoir and the lower reservoir is often considered as constant, which cannot really ...reflect the hysteresis variation between different water flows and will lead to losses of the optimal operation scheme’s benefit. To depict the water flow hysteresis, a Dynamic Water Flow Hysteresis Method (DWFHM) is proposed, based on the space mapping principle. With the mapping operator in the DWFHM, the lower reservoir inflow can be directly obtained. Besides, the DWFHM is used to deal with the hydraulic relation constraint in the short-term optimal operation model of cascade reservoirs. Then, the improved model is applied to the Jinguan cascade reservoirs in the Yalong River basin and solved by an Improved Progressive Optimal Algorithm (IPOA). The results are as follows. (1) Compared with the traditional Fixed Water Flow Hysteresis Method (FWFHM), the inflow processes of the lower reservoir obtained by the DWFHM are more in line with the actual values, due to full consideration of the attenuation effect. (2) The optimal operation with the DWFHM can effectively increase the generated energy (2827 MW·h and 504 MW·h in the non-flood season and the flood season, respectively). Through the analysis of this case, the DWFHM developed in this study can effectively improve the practicability of the optimal operation scheme and reduce the risk in the operation of cascade reservoirs.
The fundamental assumption of flood frequency analysis is that flood samples are generated by the same flood generation mechanism (FGM). However, flood events are usually triggered by the interaction ...of meteorological factors and watershed properties, which results in different FMGs. To solve this problem, researchers have put forward traditional two-component mixture distributions (TCMD-T) without clearly linking each component distribution to an explicit FGM. In order to improve the physical meaning of mixture distributions in seasonal snow-covered areas, the ratio of rainfall to flood volume (referred to as rainfall–flood ratio, RF) method was used to classify distinct FGMs. Thus, the weighting coefficient of each component distribution was determined in advance in the rainfall–flood ratio based TCMD (TCMD-RF). TCMD-RF model was applied to 34 basins in Norway. The results showed that flood types can be clearly divided into rain-on-snow-induced flood, snowmelt-induced flood and rainfall-induced flood. Moreover, the design flood and associated uncertainties were also estimated. It is found that TCMD-RF model can reduce the uncertainties of design flood by 20% compared with TCMD-T. The superiority of TCMD-RF is attributed to its clear classification of FGMs, thus determining the weighting coefficients without optimization and simplifying the parameter estimation procedure of mixture distributions.
PDF
