trans-fatty acids (TFAs) are a well-known risk factor of ischemic heart disease (IHD). In Australia, the highest TFA intake is concentrated to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. ...Elimination of industrial TFA (iTFA) from the Australian food supply could result in reduced IHD mortality and morbidity while improving health equity. However, such legislation could lead to additional costs for both government and food industry. Thus, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and effects on health equality of an iTFA ban from the Australian food supply.
Markov cohort models were used to estimate the impact on IHD burden and health equity, as well as the cost-effectiveness of a national ban of iTFA in Australia. Intake of TFA was assessed using the 2011-2012 Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The IHD burden attributable to TFA was calculated by comparing the current level of TFA intake to a counterfactual setting where consumption was lowered to a theoretical minimum distribution with a mean of 0.5% energy per day (corresponding to TFA intake only from nonindustrial sources, e.g., dairy foods). Policy costs, avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and changes in IHD-related healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the adult Australian population. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using net policy cost and HALYs gained. Health benefits and healthcare cost changes were also assessed in subgroups based on socioeconomic status, defined by Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile, and remoteness. Compared to a base case of no ban and current TFA intakes, elimination of iTFA was estimated to prevent 2,294 (95% uncertainty interval UI: 1,765; 2,851) IHD deaths and 9,931 (95% UI: 8,429; 11,532) IHD events over the first 10 years. The greatest health benefits were accrued to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles and among Australians living outside of major cities. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving (net cost <0 AUD) or cost-effective (i.e., ICER < AUD 169,361/HALY) regardless of the time horizon, with ICERs of 1,073 (95% UI: dominant; 3,503) and 1,956 (95% UI: 1,010; 2,750) AUD/HALY over 10 years and lifetime, respectively. Findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses. Key limitations of the study include the lack of recent data of TFA intake and the small sample sizes used to estimate intakes in subgroups. As with all simulation models, our study does not prove that a ban of iTFA will prevent IHD, rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and corresponding uncertainty of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence.
Our model estimates that a ban of iTFAs could avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Australia and would likely be a highly cost-effective strategy to reduce social-economic and urban-rural inequalities in health. These findings suggest that elimination of iTFA can cost-effectively improve health and health equality even in countries with low iTFA intake.
The health effects of omega-3 fatty acids have been controversial. Here we report the results of a de novo pooled analysis conducted with data from 17 prospective cohort studies examining the ...associations between blood omega-3 fatty acid levels and risk for all-cause mortality. Over a median of 16 years of follow-up, 15,720 deaths occurred among 42,466 individuals. We found that, after multivariable adjustment for relevant risk factors, risk for death from all causes was significantly lower (by 15-18%, at least p < 0.003) in the highest vs the lowest quintile for circulating long chain (20-22 carbon) omega-3 fatty acids (eicosapentaenoic, docosapentaenoic, and docosahexaenoic acids). Similar relationships were seen for death from cardiovascular disease, cancer and other causes. No associations were seen with the 18-carbon omega-3, alpha-linolenic acid. These findings suggest that higher circulating levels of marine n-3 PUFA are associated with a lower risk of premature death.
We aimed to investigate the association of serum pentadecanoic acid (15:0), a biomarker of dairy fat intake, with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in a Swedish cohort ...study. We also systematically reviewed studies of the association of dairy fat biomarkers (circulating or adipose tissue levels of 15:0, heptadecanoic acid 17:0, and trans-palmitoleic acid t16:1n-7) with CVD outcomes or all-cause mortality. We measured 15:0 in serum cholesterol esters at baseline in 4,150 Swedish adults (51% female, median age 60.5 years). During a median follow-up of 16.6 years, 578 incident CVD events and 676 deaths were identified using Swedish registers. In multivariable-adjusted models, higher 15:0 was associated with lower incident CVD risk in a linear dose-response manner (hazard ratio 0.75 per interquintile range; 95% confidence interval 0.61, 0.93, P = 0.009) and nonlinearly with all-cause mortality (P for nonlinearity = 0.03), with a nadir of mortality risk around median 15:0. In meta-analyses including our Swedish cohort and 17 cohort, case-cohort, or nested case-control studies, higher 15:0 and 17:0 but not t16:1n-7 were inversely associated with total CVD, with the relative risk of highest versus lowest tertile being 0.88 (0.78, 0.99), 0.86 (0.79, 0.93), and 1.01 (0.91, 1.12), respectively. Dairy fat biomarkers were not associated with all-cause mortality in meta-analyses, although there were less than or equal to3 studies for each biomarker. Study limitations include the inability of the biomarkers to distinguish different types of dairy foods and that most studies in the meta-analyses (including our novel cohort study) only assessed biomarkers at baseline, which may increase the risk of misclassification of exposure levels. In a meta-analysis of 18 observational studies including our new cohort study, higher levels of 15:0 and 17:0 were associated with lower CVD risk. Our findings support the need for clinical and experimental studies to elucidate the causality of these relationships and relevant biological mechanisms.
The Australian Government recently established sodium targets for packaged foods to encourage voluntary reformulation to reduce population sodium consumption and related diseases. We modeled the ...health impact of Australia's sodium reformulation targets and additional likely health gains if more ambitious, yet feasible sodium targets had been adopted instead.
Using comparative risk assessment models, we estimated the averted deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and stomach cancer after implementation of (a) Australia's sodium targets (overall and by individual companies); (b) United Kingdom's targets (that covers more product categories); and (c) an optimistic scenario (sales-weighted 25th percentile sodium content for each food category included in the UK program). We used nationally representative data to estimate pre- and post-intervention sodium intake, and other key data sources from the Global Burden of Disease study. Full compliance with the Australian government's sodium targets could prevent approximately 510 deaths/year (95% UI, 335 to 757), corresponding to about 1% of CVD, CKD, and stomach cancer deaths, and prevent some 1,920 (1,274 to 2,600) new cases and 7,240 (5,138 to 10,008) DALYs/year attributable to these diseases. Over half (59%) of deaths prevented is attributed to reformulation by 5 market-dominant companies. Compliance with the UK and optimistic scenario could avert approximately an additional 660 (207 to 1,227) and 1,070 (511 to 1,856) deaths/year, respectively, compared to Australia's targets. The main limitation of this study (like other modeling studies) is that it does not prove that sodium reformulation programs will prevent deaths and disease events; rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and the corresponding uncertainty of the potential effect of the different programs to guide the design of policies.
There is significant potential to strengthen Australia's sodium reformulation targets to improve its health impact. Promoting compliance by market-dominant food companies will be critical to achieving the potential health gains.
Consumption of trans fatty acids (TFA) is associated with adverse health outcomes and is a considerable burden on morbidity and mortality globally. TFA may be generated by common cooking practices ...and hence contribute to daily dietary intake. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between heating edible oils and change in their TFA content. A systematic search of experimental studies investigating the effect of various methods of heating on TFA content of edible oils was conducted in Medline and Embase since their inception up to 1 October 2020 without language restrictions. Comparable data were analysed using mixed multilevel linear models taking into account individual study variation. Thirty-three studies encompassing twenty-one different oils were included in this review. Overall, heating to temperatures <200 °C had no appreciable impact on different TFA levels. Between 200 and 240 °C, levels of C18:2 t (0.05% increase per 10 °C rise in temperature, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.05%), C18:3t (0.18%, 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.21%), and total TFA (0.38%, 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.55%) increased with temperature. A further increase in total TFA was observed with prolonged heating between 200 and 240 °C. Our findings suggest that heating edible oils to common cooking temperatures (≤200 °C) has minimal effect on TFA generation whereas heating to higher temperatures can increase TFA level. This provides further evidence in favour of public health advice that heating oils to very high temperatures and prolonged heating of oils should be avoided.
Consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with increased risk of obesity and non-communicable diseases. Little is known about current patterns of ultra-processed foods intake in Australia. ...The aim of this study was to examine the amount and type of ultra-processed foods purchased by Australian households in 2019 and determine whether purchases differed by socio-economic status (SES). We also assessed whether purchases of ultra-processed foods changed between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: We used grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel in Australia to assess packaged and unpackaged grocery purchases that were brought home between 2015 to 2019. Ultra-processed foods were identified according to the NOVA system, which classifies foods according to the nature, extent and purpose of industrial food processing. Purchases of ultra-processed foods were calculated per capita, using two outcomes: grams/day and percent of total energy. The top food categories contributing to purchases of ultra-processed foods in 2019 were identified, and differences in ultra-processed food purchases by SES (Index of Relative Social Advantage and Disadvantage) were assessed using survey-weighted linear regression. Changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods between 2015 to 2019 were examined overall and by SES using mixed linear models.
In 2019, the mean ± SD total grocery purchases made by Australian households was 881.1 ± 511.9 g/d per capita. Of this, 424.2 ± 319.0 g/d per capita was attributable to purchases of ultra-processed foods, which represented 56.4% of total energy purchased. The largest food categories contributing to total energy purchased included mass-produced, packaged breads (8.2% of total energy purchased), chocolate and sweets (5.7%), biscuits and crackers (5.7%) and ice-cream and edible ices (4.3%). In 2019, purchases of ultra-processed foods were significantly higher for the lowest SES households compared to all other SES quintiles (P < 0.001). There were no major changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods overall or by SES over the five-year period.
Between 2015 and 2019, ultra-processed foods have consistently made up the majority of groceries purchased by Australians, particularly for the lowest SES households. Policies that reduce ultra-processed food consumption may reduce diet-related health inequalities.
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the quality of information and guidance on dietary sodium reduction available on consumer‐facing websites. Google Trends was used to identify the five ...most‐used search terms related to dietary sodium reduction. For each term, websites on the first two pages were collected (n = 18–20). Of 93 websites collected, 24 were excluded due to defective links, duplicate websites, or not being consumer‐focused. The remaining 69 websites were evaluated using a novel instrument, JHU‐SALT, that includes 14 questions on topics related to salt reduction. The questions are grouped into three domains (“information,” “guidance,” and “accuracy”). For each question, websites were scored using a 3‐step ordinal scale (“topic not addressed,” “topic somewhat addressed,” or “topic addressed adequately”). Only three of 14 JHU‐SALT questions were addressed adequately by a majority of websites. Many websites provided information on the adverse health effects of a high sodium diet (74%, n = 51) or mentioned intake recommendations (64%, n = 44). Information on fundamental concepts was largely missing. The majority of websites (80%, n = 55) provided information on lifestyle strategies to reduce blood pressure, but most did not provide guidance to help implement those strategies. While missing information was common, misinformation was uncommon. The DISCERN questionnaire was utilized as well. Consumers seeking information and guidance on dietary sodium reduction will find that most available websites provide accurate but limited information, and insufficient guidance on how to lower sodium intake. Websites that provide both relevant information and guidance are needed to help consumers effectively reduce dietary sodium.
Abdominal obesity is a key contributor of metabolic disease. Recent trials suggest that dietary fat quality affects abdominal fat content, where palmitic acid and linoleic acid influence abdominal ...obesity differently, while effects of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids are less studied. Also, fatty acid desaturation may be altered in abdominal obesity. We aimed to investigate cross-sectional associations of serum fatty acids and desaturases with abdominal obesity prevalence in a population-based cohort study. Serum cholesteryl ester fatty acids composition was measured by gas chromatography in 60-year old men (n = 1883) and women (n = 2015). Cross-sectional associations of fatty acids with abdominal obesity prevalence and anthropometric measures (e.g., sagittal abdominal diameter) were evaluated in multivariable-adjusted logistic and linear regression models, respectively. Similar models were employed to investigate relations between desaturase activities (estimated by fatty acid ratios) and abdominal obesity. In logistic regression analyses, palmitic acid, stearoyl-CoA-desaturase and Δ6-desaturase indices were associated with abdominal obesity; multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for highest versus lowest quartiles were 1.45 (1.19-1.76), 4.06 (3.27-5.05), and 3.07 (2.51-3.75), respectively. Linoleic acid, α-linolenic acid, docohexaenoic acid, and Δ5-desaturase were inversely associated with abdominal obesity; multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals): 0.39 (0.32-0.48), 0.74 (0.61-0.89), 0.76 (0.62-0.93), and 0.40 (0.33-0.49), respectively. Eicosapentaenoic acid was not associated with abdominal obesity. Similar results were obtained from linear regression models evaluating associations with different anthropometric measures. Sex-specific and linear associations were mainly observed for n3-polyunsaturated fatty acids, while associations of the other exposures were generally non-linear and similar across sexes. In accordance with findings from short-term trials, abdominal obesity was more common among individuals with relatively high proportions of palmitic acid, whilst the contrary was true for linoleic acid. Further trials should examine the potential role of linoleic acid and its main dietary source, vegetable oils, in abdominal obesity prevention.
Underconsumption of dietary fiber is prevalent worldwide and is associated with multiple adverse health conditions. Despite the importance of fiber, the labeling of fiber content on packaged foods ...and beverages is voluntary in most countries, making it challenging for consumers and policy makers to monitor fiber consumption. Here, we developed a machine learning approach for automated and systematic prediction of fiber content using nutrient information commonly available on packaged products. An Australian packaged food dataset with known fiber content information was divided into training (n = 8986) and test datasets (n = 2455). Utilization of a k-nearest neighbors machine learning algorithm explained a greater proportion of variance in fiber content than an existing manual fiber prediction approach (R2 = 0.84 vs. R2 = 0.68). Our findings highlight the opportunity to use machine learning to efficiently predict the fiber content of packaged products on a large scale.
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