The current communication presents the application of a consolidated model combination strategy to analyze the medium-term carbon fluxes in two Mediterranean pine wood ecosystems. This strategy is ...based on the use of a NDVI-driven parametric model, Modified C-Fix, and of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC, the outputs of which are combined taking into account the actual development phase of each ecosystem. The two pine ecosystems examined correspond to an old-growth forest and to a secondary succession after clearcuts, which differently respond to the same climatic condition during a ten-year period (2013–2022). Increasing dryness, in fact, exerts a fundamental role in controlling the gross primary and net ecosystem production of the mature stand, while the effect of forest regeneration is prevalent for the uprising of the same variables in the other stand. In particular, the simulated net carbon exchange fluctuates around 200 g C m−2 year−1 in the first stand and rises to over 600 g C m−2 year−1 in the second stand; correspondingly, the accumulation of new biomass is nearly undetectable in the former case while becomes notable in the latter. The study, therefore, supports the potential of the applied strategy for predicting the forest carbon balances consequent on diversified natural and human-induced factors.
•The study aims at constructing wall-to-wall estimates of forest growing stock (GSV).•We combine NFI plot data, remotely sensed and auxiliary variables.•We applied the methodology in Mediterranean ...Forest.•We create a wall-to-wall GSV forest map in a large test area.•The GSV map was used to produce model-based estimates of GSV at small scale.
Spatial predictions of forest variables are required for supporting modern national and sub-national forest planning strategies, especially in the framework of a climate change scenario. Nowadays methods for constructing wall-to-wall maps and calculating small-area estimates of forest parameters are becoming essential components of most advanced National Forest Inventory (NFI) programs. Such methods are based on the assumption of a relationship between the forest variables and predictor variables that are available for the entire forest area. Many commonly used predictors are based on data obtained from active or passive remote sensing technologies. Italy has almost 40% of its land area covered by forests. Because of the great diversity of Italian forests with respect to composition, structure and management and underlying climatic, morphological and soil conditions, a relevant question is whether methods successfully used in less complex temperate and boreal forests may be applied successfully at country level in Italy.
For a study area of more than 48,657 km2 in central Italy of which 43% is covered by forest, the study presents the results of a test regarding wall-to-wall, spatially explicit estimation of forest growing stock volume (GSV) based on field measurement of 1350 plots during the last Italian NFI. For the same area, we used potential predictor variables that are available across the whole of Italy: cloud-free mosaics of multispectral optical satellite imagery (Landsat 5 TM), microwave sensor data (JAXA PALSAR), a canopy height model (CHM) from satellite LiDAR, and auxiliary variables from climate, temperature and precipitation maps, soil maps, and a digital terrain model.
Two non-parametric (random forests and k-NN) and two parametric (multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression) prediction methods were tested to produce wall-to-wall map of growing stock volume at 23-m resolution. Pixel level predictions were used to produce small-area, province-level model-assisted estimates. The performances of all the methods were compared in terms of percent root mean-square error using a leave-one-out procedure and an independent dataset was used for validation. Results were comparable to those available for other ecological regions using similar predictors, but random forests produced the most accurate results with a pixel level R2 = 0.69 and RMSE% = 37.2% against the independent validation dataset. Model-assisted estimates were more precise than the original design-based estimates provided by the NFI.
In developing countries, information on the area and spatial distribution of paddy rice fields is an essential requirement for ensuring food security and facilitating targeted actions of both ...technical assistance and restoration of degraded production areas. In this study, Sentinel 1 (S1) and Sentinel 2 (S2) imagery was used to map lowland rice crop areas in the Sédhiou region (Senegal) for the 2017, 2018, and 2019 growing seasons using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Ground sample datasets were annually collected (416, 455, and 400 samples) for training and testing yearly RF classification. A procedure was preliminarily applied to process S2 scenes and yield a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series less affected by clouds. A total of 93 predictors were calculated from S2 NDVI time series and S1 vertical transmit–horizontal receive (VH) and vertical transmit–vertical receive (VV) backscatters. Guided regularized random forest (GRRF) was used to deal with the arising multicollinearity and identify the most important predictors. The RF classifier was then applied to the selected predictors. The algorithm predicted the five land cover types present in the test areas, with a maximum accuracy of 87% and kappa coefficient of 0.8 in 2019. The broad land cover maps identified around 12,500 (2017), 13,800 (2018), and 12,800 (2019) ha of lowland rice crops. The study highlighted a partial difficulty of the classifier to distinguish rice from natural herbaceous vegetation (NHV) due to similar temporal patterns and high intra-class variability. Moreover, the results of this investigation indicated that S2-derived predictors provided more valuable information compared to VV and VH backscatter-derived predictors, but a combination of radar and optical imagery always outperformed a classification based on single-sensor inputs. An example is finally provided that illustrates how the maps obtained can be combined with ground observations through a ratio estimator in order to yield a statistically sound prediction of rice area all over the study region.
Key message
The impact of climatic change should not be dramatic over Italian forests in terms of GPP, which should increase particularly for evergreen forest types. This positive effect is less ...marked for deciduous forests. The increasing trend should be reduced by the end of the century for all forest types except mountain conifers because of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall
.
Context
Estimating the spatial and temporal variability of forest gross primary production (GPP) is a major issue of applied ecology, particularly in relation to ongoing and expected climate change.
Aims
The current study proposes a methodological framework for analyzing large-scale forest responses to climate change in terms of GPP.
Methods
The methodology utilizes the GPP estimates of an NDVI-driven model, C-Fix, to assess the performance of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC. The two models were first applied at 1-km pixel scale in Italy over a period of 15 years (1999–2013). The model outputs, aggregated on annual basis for the main Italian forest types, were inter-compared and analyzed in relation to major meteorological drivers (i.e., temperature and water-limiting factors).
Results
C-Fix and BIOME-BGC responded similarly to these major drivers, which supported the application of BIOME-BGC as a prognostic tool to simulate the GPP during three time slices of the RCP4.5 climate scenario.
Conclusion
The results obtained highlight how the importance of spring temperature and water availability is diversified among the forest types in determining changes of forest GPP all over the Italian peninsula in a future climate.
A recently proposed modelling strategy predicts the net primary production (NPP) of forest ecosystems by combining the outputs of a NDVI-driven model, Modified C-Fix, and a bio-geochemical model, ...BIOME-BGC. This combination strategy takes into account the effects of forest disturbances but still assumes the presence of a mixture of differently aged trees. The application of this strategy to even-aged forests, therefore, requires a methodological advancement aimed at properly modifying the modelling of main ecosystem processes. In particular, the adaptation of the method to even-aged forests is based on the use of high-spatial-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS) datasets, which yields green and woody biomass estimates that regulate the simulation of photosynthetic and respiratory processes, respectively. This approach was experimented in a Mediterranean study area, San Rossore Regional Park (Central Italy), which is covered by even-aged pine stands in different development phases. The modelling strategy is driven by MODIS NDVI images and meteorological data across five years (2011–2015), which are combined with estimates of forest canopy cover and height obtained from ALS data taken in 2015. This allows the production of stand NPP estimates, which, when converted into respective current annual increment (CAI) values, reasonably reproduce the age dependency of the available ground observations. The CAI estimates also show a highly significant correlation with these observations (r = 0.773) and moderate error levels (RMSE = 2.03 m3 ha−1 year−1, MBE = −0.45 m3 ha−1 year−1). These results confirm the potential of the modified simulation method to yield accurate high-spatial-resolution NPP estimates, which can offer valuable insights into C cycling and storage, in even-aged forests.
Understanding and monitoring the ecological quality of coastal waters is crucial for preserving marine ecosystems. Eutrophication is one of the major problems affecting the ecological state of ...coastal marine waters. For this reason, the control of the trophic conditions of aquatic ecosystems is needed for the evaluation of their ecological quality. This study leverages space-based Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument imagery (OLCI) to assess the ecological quality of Mediterranean coastal waters using the Trophic Index (TRIX) key indicator. In particular, we explore the feasibility of coupling remote sensing and machine learning techniques to estimate the TRIX levels in the Ligurian, Tyrrhenian, and Ionian coastal regions of Italy. Our research reveals distinct geographical patterns in TRIX values across the study area, with some regions exhibiting eutrophic conditions near estuaries and others showing oligotrophic characteristics. We employ the Random Forest Regression algorithm, optimizing calibration parameters to predict TRIX levels. Feature importance analysis highlights the significance of latitude, longitude, and specific spectral bands in TRIX prediction. A final statistical assessment validates our model’s performance, demonstrating a moderate level of error (MAE of 0.51) and explanatory power (R2 of 0.37). These results highlight the potential of Sentinel-3 OLCI imagery in assessing ecological quality, contributing to our understanding of coastal water ecology. They also underscore the importance of merging remote sensing and machine learning in environmental monitoring and management. Future research should refine methodologies and expand datasets to enhance TRIX monitoring capabilities from space.
A recent study has proposed and tested a semi-empirical method to estimate crop irrigation based on a water balance logic and Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI) NDVI imagery. The current ...paper aims at extending the same approach to the analysis of the main irrigation patterns occurred in Tuscany (Central Italy) during the 2000-2019 period. This operation was made possible by feeding the irrigation water (IW) estimation method with 250-m spatial resolution Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI images. The results of this operation were first assessed versus various reference datasets available for the region; next, the annual maps of IW estimated for the 20 study years were analyzed at province scale in conjunction with relevant agricultural statistics. The use of MODIS in place of MSI images reduces the IW estimation accuracy irregularly at local scale, depending on the size and spatial arrangement of irrigated and non-irrigated fields; the reduction in accuracy is, however, marginal over relatively large areas. Irrigated crops are decreasing throughout most Tuscany provinces, while they are increasing in the most southern and driest province. The possible reasons and implications of these findings are finally discussed in relation to the main environmental issues affecting the region.
Several political initiatives aim to achieve net-zero emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. In this context, forests are crucial as a carbon sink to store unavoidable emissions. ...Assessing the carbon sequestration potential of forest ecosystems is pivotal to the availability of accurate forest variable estimates for supporting international reporting and appropriate forest management strategies. Spatially explicit estimates are even more important for Mediterranean countries such as Italy, where the capacity of forests to act as sinks is decreasing due to climate change. This study aimed to develop a spatial approach to obtain high-resolution maps of Italian forest above-ground biomass (ITA-BIO) and current annual volume increment (ITA-CAI), based on remotely sensed and meteorological data. The ITA-BIO estimates were compared with those obtained with two available biomass maps developed in the framework of two international projects (i.e., the Joint Research Center and the European Space Agency biomass maps, namely, JRC-BIO and ESA-BIO). The estimates from ITA-BIO, JRC-BIO, ESA-BIO, and ITA-CAI were compared with the 2nd Italian NFI (INFC) official estimates at regional level (NUT2). The estimates from ITA-BIO are in good agreement with the INFC estimates (R2 = 0.95, mean difference = 3.8 t ha−1), while for JRC-BIO and ESA-BIO, the estimates show R2 of 0.90 and 0.70, respectively, and mean differences of 13.5 and of 21.8 t ha−1 with respect to the INFC estimates. ITA-CAI estimates are also in good agreement with the INFC estimates (R2 = 0.93), even if they tend to be slightly biased. The produced maps are hosted on a web-based forest resources management Decision Support System developed under the project AGRIDIGIT (ForestView) and represent a key element in supporting the new Green Deal in Italy, the European Forest Strategy 2030 and the Italian Forest Strategy.
Relative soil water content (RSWC) is widely used to characterize the impact of water stress (WS) on vegetation. In bi-layer ecosystems, such as olive groves, this impact must be primarily estimated ...for the tree component, which, having greater rooting depth, responds more slowly to WS than understory grass. This complicates the application of methods for RSWC prediction, which must be properly adapted to consider the deeper soil layer influential on olive trees. The current study investigates the modification of a recently proposed RSWC simulation method based on a combination of meteorological and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The application of the method to an olive grove in Central Italy requires the estimation of both weather and NDVI contributions affecting solely olive trees, which is carried out through the use of appropriate data processing techniques. The RSWC estimates obtained reasonably reproduce the ground RSWC observations referred to the 1 m soil layer, which are representative of the WS affecting olive trees (r
2
= 0.795, RMSE = 0.15 and MBE = −0.09). The limits and prospects of this method are finally discussed with particular reference to the possible integration of the RSWC estimates within more complex ecosystem models.
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