Although the burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by infectious diseases, countries in this region are undergoing a demographic transition leading to increasing ...prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To inform health system responses to these changing patterns of disease, we aimed to assess changes in the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2017.
We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)—with crude counts as well as all-age and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population—with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined changes in burden between 1990 and 2017, and differences across age, sex, and regions. We also compared the observed NCD burden across countries with the expected values based on a country's Socio-demographic Index.
All-age total DALYs due to NCDs increased by 67·0% between 1990 (90·6 million 95% UI 81·0–101·9) and 2017 (151·3 million 133·4–171·8), reflecting an increase in the proportion of total DALYs attributable to NCDs (from 18·6% 95% UI 17·1–20·4 to 29·8% 27·6–32·0 of the total burden). Although most of this increase can be explained by population growth and ageing, the age-standardised DALY rate (per 100 000 population) due to NCDs in 2017 (21 757·7 DALYs 95% UI 19 377·1–24 380·7) was almost equivalent to that of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (26 491·6 DALYs 25 165·2–28 129·8). Cardiovascular diseases were the second leading cause of NCD burden in 2017, resulting in 22·9 million (21·5–24·3) DALYs (15·1% of the total NCD burden), after the group of disorders categorised as other NCDs (28·8 million 25·1–33·0 DALYs, 19·1%). These categories were followed by neoplasms, mental disorders, and digestive diseases. Although crude DALY rates for all NCDs have decreased slightly across sub-Saharan Africa, age-standardised rates are on the rise in some countries (particularly those in southern sub-Saharan Africa) and for some NCDs (such as diabetes and some cancers, including breast and prostate cancer).
NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa are posing an increasing challenge for health systems, which have to date largely focused on tackling infectious diseases and maternal, neonatal, and child deaths. To effectively address these changing needs, countries in sub-Saharan Africa require detailed epidemiological data on NCDs.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Centre (Australia).
Africa is currently host to a number of international genomics research and biobanking consortia, each with a mandate to advance genomics research and biobanking in Africa. Whilst most of these ...consortia promise to transform the way international health research is done in Africa, few have articulated exactly how they propose to go about this. In this paper, we report on a qualitative interviewing study in which we involved 17 genomics researchers in Africa. We describe their perceptions and expectations of international genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa.
All interviewees were of the view that externally funded genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa, have played a critical role in building capacity for genomics research and biobanking in Africa and in providing an opportunity for researchers in Africa to collaborate and network with other researchers. Whilst the opportunity to collaborate was seen as a benefit, some interviewees stressed the importance of recognizing that these collaborations carry mutual benefits for all partners, including their collaborators in HICs. They also voiced two major concerns of being part of these collaborative initiatives: the possibility of exploitation of African researchers and the non-sustainability of research capacity building efforts. As a way of minimising exploitation, researchers in Africa recommended that genuine efforts be made to create transparent and equitable international health research partnerships. They suggested that this could be achieved through,: having rules of engagement, enabling African researchers to contribute to the design and conduct of international health projects in Africa, and mutual and respectful exchange of experience and capacity between research collaborators. These were identified as hallmarks to equitable international health research collaborations in Africa.
Genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa such as H3Africa have gone some way in defining aspects of fair and equitable research collaborations in Africa. However, they will need to strive at achieving equitable health research collaborations if they truly aim at setting a gold standard for how international health research should be conducted in Africa.
Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) lead to 17.5 million deaths worldwide per year. Taking into account population ageing, CVD death rates are decreasing ...steadily both in regions with reliable trend data and globally. The declines in high-income countries and some Latin American countries have been ongoing for decades without slowing. These positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors, such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol levels. These declines have also coincided with, and benefited from, improvements in medical care, including primary prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of acute CVDs, as well as post-hospital care, especially in the past 40 years. These variables, however, explain neither why the decline began when it did, nor the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline between countries and sexes. In Russia and some other former Soviet countries, changes in volume and patterns of alcohol consumption have caused sharp rises in CVD mortality since the early 1990s. An important challenge in reaching firm conclusions about the drivers of these remarkable international trends is the paucity of time-trend data on CVD incidence, risk factors throughout the life-course, and clinical care.
Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and ...national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study.
We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty.
We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally.
We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).
Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 9p21 are associated with coronary artery disease, diabetes, and multiple cancers. Risk SNPs are mainly non-coding, suggesting that they influence ...expression and may act in cis. We examined the association between 56 SNPs in this region and peripheral blood expression of the three nearest genes CDKN2A, CDKN2B, and ANRIL using total and allelic expression in two populations of healthy volunteers: 177 British Caucasians and 310 mixed-ancestry South Africans. Total expression of the three genes was correlated (P<0.05), suggesting that they are co-regulated. SNP associations mapped by allelic and total expression were similar (r = 0.97, P = 4.8x10(-99)), but the power to detect effects was greater for allelic expression. The proportion of expression variance attributable to cis-acting effects was 8% for CDKN2A, 5% for CDKN2B, and 20% for ANRIL. SNP associations were similar in the two populations (r = 0.94, P = 10(-72)). Multiple SNPs were independently associated with expression of each gene (P<0.05 after correction for multiple testing), suggesting that several sites may modulate disease susceptibility. Individual SNPs correlated with changes in expression up to 1.4-fold for CDKN2A, 1.3-fold for CDKN2B, and 2-fold for ANRIL. Risk SNPs for coronary disease, stroke, diabetes, melanoma, and glioma were all associated with allelic expression of ANRIL (all P<0.05 after correction for multiple testing), while association with the other two genes was only detectable for some risk SNPs. SNPs had an inverse effect on ANRIL and CDKN2B expression, supporting a role of antisense transcription in CDKN2B regulation. Our study suggests that modulation of ANRIL expression mediates susceptibility to several important human diseases.
Summary 15 years after its first democratic election, South Africa is in the midst of a profound health transition that is characterised by a quadruple burden of communicable, non-communicable, ...perinatal and maternal, and injury-related disorders. Non-communicable diseases are emerging in both rural and urban areas, most prominently in poor people living in urban settings, and are resulting in increasing pressure on acute and chronic health-care services. Major factors include demographic change leading to a rise in the proportion of people older than 60 years, despite the negative effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy. The burden of these diseases will probably increase as the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy takes effect and reduces mortality from HIV/AIDS. The scale of the challenge posed by the combined and growing burden of HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases demands an extraordinary response that South Africa is well able to provide. Concerted action is needed to strengthen the district-based primary health-care system, to integrate the care of chronic diseases and management of risk factors, to develop a national surveillance system, and to apply interventions of proven cost-effectiveness in the primary and secondary prevention of such diseases within populations and health services. We urge the launching of a national initiative to establish sites of service excellence in urban and rural settings throughout South Africa to trial, assess, and implement integrated care interventions for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases.
Since the 2009 Lancet Health in South Africa Series, important changes have occurred in the country, resulting in an increase in life expectancy to 60 years. Historical injustices together with the ...disastrous health policies of the previous administration are being transformed. The change in leadership of the Ministry of Health has been key, but new momentum is inhibited by stasis within the health management bureaucracy. Specific policy and programme changes are evident for all four of the so-called colliding epidemics: HIV and tuberculosis; chronic illness and mental health; injury and violence; and maternal, neonatal, and child health. South Africa now has the world's largest programme of antiretroviral therapy, and some advances have been made in implementation of new tuberculosis diagnostics and treatment scale-up and integration. HIV prevention has received increased attention. Child mortality has benefited from progress in addressing HIV. However, more attention to postnatal feeding support is needed. Many risk factors for non-communicable diseases have increased substantially during the past two decades, but an ambitious government policy to address lifestyle risks such as consumption of salt and alcohol provide real potential for change. Although mortality due to injuries seems to be decreasing, high levels of interpersonal violence and accidents persist. An integrated strategic framework for prevention of injury and violence is in progress but its successful implementation will need high-level commitment, support for evidence-led prevention interventions, investment in surveillance systems and research, and improved human-resources and management capacities. A radical system of national health insurance and re-engineering of primary health care will be phased in for 14 years to enable universal, equitable, and affordable health-care coverage. Finally, national consensus has been reached about seven priorities for health research with a commitment to increase the health research budget to 2·0% of national health spending. However, large racial differentials exist in social determinants of health, especially housing and sanitation for the poor and inequity between the sexes, although progress has been made in access to basic education, electricity, piped water, and social protection. Integration of the private and public sectors and of services for HIV, tuberculosis, and non-communicable diseases needs to improve, as do surveillance and information systems. Additionally, successful interventions need to be delivered widely. Transformation of the health system into a national institution that is based on equity and merit and is built on an effective human-resources system could still place South Africa on track to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4, 5, and 6 and would enhance the lives of its citizens.
There is controversy regarding the inclusion of patients with hypertension among cases of peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM), as the practice has contributed significantly to the discrepancy in ...reported characteristics of PPCM. We sought to determine whether hypertensive heart failure of pregnancy (HHFP) (i.e., peripartum cardiac failure associated with any form of hypertension) and PPCM have similar or different clinical features and outcome.
We compared the time of onset of symptoms, clinical profile (including electrocardiographic ECG and echocardiographic features) and outcome of patients with HHFP (n = 53; age 29.6 ± 6.6 years) and PPCM (n = 30; age 31.5 ± 7.5 years). The onset of symptoms was postpartum in all PPCM patients, whereas it was antepartum in 85% of HHFP cases (p<0.001). PPCM was more significantly associated with the following features than HHFP (p<0.05): twin pregnancy, smoking, cardiomegaly with lower left ventricular ejection fraction on echocardiography, and longer QRS duration, QRS abnormalities, left atrial hypertrophy, left bundle branch block, T wave inversion and atrial fibrillation on ECG. By contrast, HHFP patients were significantly more likely (p<0.05) to have a family history of hypertension, hypertension and pre-eclampsia in a previous pregnancy, tachycardia at presentation on ECG, and left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiography. Chronic heart failure, intra-cardiac thrombus and pulmonary hypertension were found significantly more commonly in PPCM than in HHFP (p<0.05). There were 5 deaths in the PPCM group compared to none among HHFP cases (p = 0.005) during follow-up.
There are significant differences in the time of onset of heart failure, clinical, ECG and echocardiographic features, and outcome of HHFP compared to PPCM, indicating that the presence of hypertension in pregnancy-associated heart failure may not fit the case definition of idiopathic PPCM.
Objective The causes of constrictive pericarditis and predictors of perioperative outcome after pericardiectomy have not been clearly elucidated, especially in Africa, where the disease ...characteristics differ from those in developed countries. Furthermore, the effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) on pericardial constriction and outcomes after surgery is unknown. We investigated the causes of constrictive pericarditis, outcomes after pericardiectomy, and predictors of mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, during a 22-year period of high HIV/AIDS prevalence. Methods A retrospective review of the medical records of all patients who had undergone pericardiectomy for constrictive pericarditis at Groote Schuur Hospital from January 1, 1990 to December 31, 2012 was performed. Results Of 121 patients, 36 (29.8%) had proven tuberculosis, 74 (61.2%) had presumed tuberculosis, 6 (5%) had idiopathic causes, and 5 (4%) had miscellaneous causes of constrictive pericarditis. Seventeen patients (14%) died perioperatively with low cardiac output syndrome the main cause of mortality. On multivariable analysis, serum sodium (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.97; P = .009) and preoperative New York Heart Association class IV (hazard ratio, 3.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-9.08; P = .014; vs combined class I-III) were independent predictors of early mortality. Of the 121 patients, 14 (11.6%) were HIV positive, with a mean CD4 cell count of 284 ± 133 cells/μL. No early deaths occurred in the HIV-positive patients. Conclusions Tuberculosis is the main cause of constrictive pericarditis in South Africa. Despite its efficacy at relieving the symptoms of heart failure, pericardiectomy is associated with high perioperative mortality that was not influenced by HIV status. New York Heart Association functional class IV and hyponatremia predict for early mortality after pericardiectomy.
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