Sustainable forest management plays a key role for forest biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services (BES), including the important service of carbon sequestration for climate change ...mitigation. Forest managers, however, find themselves in the increasingly complex planning situation to balance the often conflicting demands in BES. To cope with this situation, a prototype of a decision support system (DSS) for strategic (long-term) planning at the forest enterprise level was developed in the present project. The DSS was applied at three case study enterprises (CSEs) in Northern Switzerland, two lowland and one higher-elevation enterprise, for a 50-year time horizon (2010 to 2060) under present climate and three climate change scenarios (‘wet’, ‘medium’, ‘dry’). BES provisioning (for biodiversity, timber production, recreation, protection against gravitational hazards and carbon sequestration) was evaluated for four management scenarios (no management, current (BAU), lower and higher management intensity) using a utility-based multi-criteria decision analysis. Additionally, four alternative preference scenarios for BES provisioning were investigated to evaluate the robustness of the results to shifting BES preferences. At all CSEs, synergies between carbon sequestration, biodiversity and protection function as well as trade-offs between carbon sequestration and timber production occurred. The BAU management resulted in the highest overall utility in 2060 for different climate and BES preference scenarios, with the exception of one lowland CSE under current BES preference, where a lower intensity management performed best. Although climate change had a relatively small effect on overall utility, individual BES indicators showed a negative climate change impact for the lowland CSEs and a positive effect for the higher elevation CSE. The patterns of overall utility were relatively stable to shifts in BES preferences, with exception of a shift toward a preference for carbon sequestration. Overall, the study demonstrates the potential of the DSS to investigate the development of multiple BES as well as their synergies and trade-offs for a set of lowland and mountainous forest enterprises. The new system incorporates a wide set of BES indicators, a strong empirical foundation and a flexible multi-criteria decision analysis, enabling stakeholders to take scientifically well-founded decisions under changing climatic conditions and political goals.
•Evaluating methods to derive stand descriptions from large-scale sampling data.•Multi-scale approach to improve initialisation of dynamic forest models.•Simultaneous parameter prediction method best ...to predict tree diameter distributions.•Random Forest approach best to predict tree species composition.
Most strategic and operational forest management decisions are taken based on stand-level information, and quantitative models of forest dynamics are key for developing sustainable management strategies. However, data on forest stands for the initialisation of such models that are representative at large spatial scales, e.g., countries or ecoregions, are often lacking. National Forest Inventories (NFIs) provide forest data from small sample plots at large spatial scales, yet deriving full stand information based on such data is challenging. Here, we evaluate seven methods of varying complexity for deriving quantitative stand descriptions based on sample data as provided by the Swiss NFI. We selected 271 extensively measured Swiss forests stands with unimodal diameter distributions, classified them as beech- vs. spruce-dominated in five development stages and randomly placed a small sized sample plot in each stand using the Swiss NFI sampling design (i.e., a circular plot of 500 m2). Seven modelling approaches were used to derive diameter distributions and species-specific stem numbers (i.e., tree species composition) from the sample data that are representative for a particular stand (local scale) and for stand types in general (generalised scale). The prediction performance of the modelling approaches was evaluated using 100 random samples per stand to calculate prediction errors. Generalised even-aged diameter distributions were best predicted by the simultaneous parameter prediction method (PPM), i.e. a combined three-step regression approach, with on average 1.3 to 2.5 times lower prediction errors compared to the simple pooling of diameter samples. However, uneven-aged diameter distributions were best predicted by pooling. At the local scale, the simultaneous PPM performed best for data from sample plots with fewer than 17 to 19 trees across all development stages. Prediction performance of the PPMs increased for structurally and spatially diverse local stands with positively skewed diameter distributions. A Random Forest approach was most suitable for predicting species composition at both the generalised and the local scale. Our study evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of methods to model stands based on data from small sample plots. We emphasise terminological pitfalls by consequently distinguishing local accuracy and generalised representativity of the stand descriptions. We demonstrate the feasibility of deriving locally accurate stands using data from small forest sample plots and evaluate the derivation of generalised stands representative at large regions. At both scales, our developments contribute to an improved initialisation of forest models and thus to a more realistic modelling of forest development under future boundary conditions.
Forests provide multiple services, and in the face of global change adaptive management strategies are needed, which inevitably must be based on models. However, most locally accurate forest models ...are tied to the stand scale and cannot readily be applied across large areas. Empirical data for model initialisation are often not available at large spatial scales. National Forest Inventories (NFIs) provide spatially representative tree and stand samples, but their samples are typically small, that is, only a few trees are measured per plot, and they are truncated, that is, not each tree has the same probability of being observed. To overcome these issues, we develop and apply a methodology to derive stand descriptions from small sample data, taking the Swiss NFI as a case study.
We extended the traditional Weibull function to (multi‐)truncated unimodal and bimodal forms that are suitable for the representation of samples from survey designs with multiple callipering thresholds. Subsequently, we applied these functions in an extended parameter prediction method to derive stand diameter distributions from representative samples. Additionally, we predicted species compositions using a multinomial logistic regression model and assigned them to the diameter distributions of the stands.
The diameter distribution of 9.1% of the Swiss NFI samples was better described by a bimodal than a unimodal Weibull function. The uni‐ and bimodal diameter model in combination with the model to determine species composition can be used to predict stand descriptions from single small samples or entire forest types in the target area. Thereby, the bimodal form is suitable for capturing stand structures with distinct under‐ and overstorey. In Switzerland, the diameter distributions of stands are typically positively skewed.
Our method can be applied to any large‐scale dataset (e.g. NFI) and allows to generate initial conditions in terms of spatially representative stands. These, in turn, are suitable for forest stand simulators, which allows for developing adaptive forest management strategies at large scales, by simulating realistic and site‐specific stand development while still reflecting detailed management measures. Furthermore, stand descriptions can be used to assess tree species diversity, regeneration and harvest potentials.
Zusammenfassung
Wälder erbringen vielfältige Leistungen und im Angesicht globaler Veränderungen werden adaptive Bewirtschaftungsstrategien gebraucht, die zwangsläufig auf Modellen beruhen müssen. In der Regel sind lokal präzise Waldmodelle jedoch an die Bestandesebene gebunden und lassen sich nicht direkt auf großräumige Regionen übertragen. Empirische Daten zur Modellinitialisierung sind auf großen räumlichen Skalen oft nicht verfügbar. Nationale Waldinventuren (NFIs) liefern räumlich repräsentative Baum‐ und Bestandesstichproben, diese sind aber typischerweise klein (nur wenige Bäume pro Aufnahmefläche) und trunkiert (nicht jeder Baum hat dieselbe Aufnahmewahrscheinlichkeit). Um diese Lücke zu füllen, entwickeln wir eine Methodik zur Herleitung von Bestandesbeschreibungen aus kleinen Stichprobendaten und zeigen am Beispiel des Schweizerischen Landesforestinventars (NFI) eine konkrete Anwendung.
Wir erweiterten die Weibull‐Funktion zu einer (multi‐)trunkierten unimodalen und bimodalen Form, die sich für die Beschreibung von Stichproben aus Aufnahmedesigns mit mehreren Kluppschwellen eignen. Anschließend wendeten wir diese Funktionen in einer simultanen Parameter‐Schätzmethode über alle Stichproben an, um repräsentative Bestandes‐Durchmesserverteilungen abzuleiten. Zusätzlich prognostizierten wir die Baumartenzusammensetzung mit Hilfe eines multinomialen logistischen Regressionsmodells und verbanden diese mit den Durchmesserverteilungen der Bestände.
Die Durchmesserverteilung von 9,1% der Schweizerischen NFI Stichproben wurde besser durch eine bimodale als durch eine unimodale Weibull‐Funktion beschrieben. Das uni‐ und bimodale Durchmessermodell in Kombination mit dem Modell zur Bestimmung der Baumartenzusammensetzung kann zur Vorhersage von Bestandesbeschreibungen aus einzelnen kleinen Stichproben oder ganzen Waldtypen im Zielgebiet verwendet werden. Dabei eignet sich die bimodale Form zur Erfassung von Bestandesstrukturen mit ausgeprägtem Unter‐ und Oberstand. In der Schweiz sind die Durchmesserverteilungen von Beständen typischerweise rechtsschief.
Unsere Methode kann auf jeglichen grossräumigen Datensatz (z.B. NFI) angewendet werden und erlaubt es, Initialbedingungen in Form von räumlich repräsentativen Beständen zu generieren. Diese wiederum können in Waldbestandessimulatoren verwendet werden, um die Entwicklung von adaptiven Waldbewirtschaftungsstrategien auf großräumigen Skalen zu untersuchen, indem realistische und standortspezifische Bestandesentwicklungen mit zielgenauer Bewirtschaftung simuliert werden. Darüber hinaus können die Bestandesbeschreibungen zur Beurteilung der Baumartenvielfalt, der Verjüngung und des Erntepotentials genutzt werden.
Climate-adaptive forest management aims to sustain the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB). However, it remains largely unknown how changes in adaptive ...silvicultural interventions affect trade-offs and synergies among ESB in the long term. We used a simulation-based sensitivity analysis to evaluate popular adaptive forest management interventions in representative Swiss low- to mid-elevation beech- and spruce-dominated forest stands. We predicted stand development across the twenty-first century using a novel empirical and temperature-sensitive single-tree forest stand simulator in a fully crossed experimental design to analyse the effects of (1) planting mixtures of Douglas-fir, oak and silver fir, (2) thinning intensity, and (3) harvesting intensity on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity under three climate scenarios. Simulation results were evaluated in terms of multiple ESB provision, trade-offs and synergies, and individual effects of the adaptive interventions. Timber production increased on average by 45% in scenarios that included tree planting. Tree planting led to pronounced synergies among all ESBs towards the end of the twenty-first century. Increasing the thinning and harvesting intensity affected ESB provision negatively. Our simulations indicated a temperature-driven increase in growth in beech- (+ 12.5%) and spruce-dominated stands (+ 3.7%), but could not account for drought effects on forest dynamics. Our study demonstrates the advantages of multi-scenario sensitivity analysis that enables quantifying effect sizes and directions of management impacts. We showed that admixing new tree species is promising to enhance future ESB provision and synergies among them. These results support strategic decision making in forestry.
Climate change severely affects mountain forests and their ecosystem services, e.g., by altering disturbance regimes. Increasing timber harvest (INC) via a close-to-nature forestry may offer a ...mitigation strategy to reduce disturbance predisposition. However, little is known about the efficiency of this strategy at the scale of forest enterprises and potential trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). We applied a decision support system which accounts for disturbance predisposition and BES indicators to evaluate the effect of different harvest intensities and climate change scenarios on windthrow and bark beetle predisposition in a mountain forest enterprise in Switzerland. Simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2100 under historic climate and climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In terms of BES, biodiversity (structural and tree species diversity, deadwood amount) as well as timber production, recreation (visual attractiveness), carbon sequestration, and protection against gravitational hazards (rockfall, avalanche and landslides) were assessed. The INC strategy reduced disturbance predisposition to windthrow and bark beetles. However, the mitigation potential for bark beetle disturbance was relatively small (− 2.4%) compared to the opposite effect of climate change (+ 14% for RCP8.5). Besides, the INC strategy increased the share of broadleaved species and resulted in a synergy with recreation and timber production, and a trade-off with carbon sequestration and protection function. Our approach emphasized the disproportionally higher disturbance predisposition under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, which may threaten currently unaffected mountain forests. Decision support systems accounting for climate change, disturbance predisposition, and BES can help coping with such complex planning situations.
Summary Background & aims Cancer cachexia is multifactorial and should be targeted using a multimodal form of intervention. The purpose of the present trial was to test the effects of a combined ...nutrition and physical exercise program on cancer patients with metastatic or locally advanced tumors of the gastrointestinal and lung tracts. Methods Patients were randomized into two groups: One group received a minimum of three standardized individual nutritional counselling sessions and participated in a 60-min exercise program twice a week. The second group received their usual care. The intervention spanned a period of three months. Quality of life (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire version 3.0), physical performance (hand-grip strength, 6-min walk test, timed sit-to-stand test and 1 repetition maximum leg press), nutritional status (body weight, bioelectrical impedance analysis), dietary intake (three-day dietary record) and clinical data (unexpected hospital days, performance status) were tested at baseline and after three and six months. Results In total, 18 women and 40 men (mean age 63, range 32–81) with metastatic or locally advanced tumors of the gastrointestinal ( n = 38) and lung ( n = 20) tracts were included. Median adherence to the supervised exercise program was 75%. The median number of individual nutritional counselling sessions was 3.0 (range 0–7 sessions). Post intervention, no difference in global health status/quality of life (overall QoL) was observed. Intervention was superior to UC for the patient-rated symptom scale regarding nausea and vomiting ( p = 0.023) and protein intake ( p = 0.01). No statistical differences were observed for energy intake, nutritional status and physical performance. Conclusions The results show good adherence to a combined nutrition and exercise program. The multimodal intervention did not improve overall QoL, but contributed to an adequate protein intake and to the general well-being of the patient by reducing nausea and vomiting.
The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) consensus conference on mature B cell lymphomas and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) was held on 20 June 2015 in Lugano, Switzerland, and included ...a multidisciplinary panel of 25 leading experts. The aim of the conference was to develop recommendations on critical subjects difficult to consider in detail in the ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines. The following areas were identified: (1) the elderly patient, (2) prognostic factors suitable for clinical use, and (3) the ‘ultra-high-risk’ group. Before the conference, the expert panel was divided into three working groups; each group focused on one of these areas in order to address clinically-relevant questions relating to that topic. All relevant scientific literature, as identified by the experts, was reviewed in advance. During the consensus conference, each working group developed recommendations to address each of the four questions assigned to their group. These recommendations were presented to the entire panel and a consensus was reached. This consensus, which was further developed in continuous post-meeting discussions, formed the basis of three manuscripts, each covering one of the three key areas identified. This manuscript presents the consensus recommendations regarding the clinical management of elderly patients diagnosed with malignant lymphoma. Four clinically-relevant topics identified by the panel were: 1) how to define patient fitness, 2) assessing quality of life, 3) diagnostic work-up and 4) clinical management of elderly patients with lymphoma. Each of these key topics is addressed in the context of five different lymphoma entities, namely: CLL, follicular lymphoma, mantle cell lymphoma, peripheral T-cell lymphoma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Results, including a summary of evidence supporting each recommendation, are detailed in this manuscript.
The SAKK 35/10 phase 2 trial, developed by the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research and the Nordic Lymphoma Group, compared the activity of rituximab vs rituximab plus lenalidomide in untreated ...follicular lymphoma patients in need of systemic therapy. Patients were randomized to rituximab (375 mg/m2 IV on day 1 of weeks 1-4 and repeated during weeks 12-15 in responding patients) or rituximab (same schedule) in combination with lenalidomide (15 mg orally daily for 18 weeks). Primary end point was complete response (CR)/unconfirmed CR (CRu) rate at 6 months. In total, 77 patients were allocated to rituximab monotherapy and 77 to the combination (47% poor-risk Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index score in each arm). A significantly higher CR/CRu rate at 6 months was documented in the combination arm by the investigators (36%; 95% confidence interval CI, 26%-48% vs 25%; 95% CI, 16%-36%) and confirmed by an independent response review of computed tomography scans only (61%; 95% CI, 49%-72% vs 36%; 95% CI, 26%-48%). After a median follow-up of 4 years, significantly higher 30-month CR/CRu rates and longer progression-free survival (PFS) and time to next treatment (TTNT) were observed for the combination. Overall survival (OS) rates were similar in both arms (≥90%). Toxicity grade ≥3 was more common in the combination arm (56% vs 22% of patients), mainly represented by neutropenia (23% vs 7%). Addition of lenalidomide to rituximab significantly improved CR/CRu rates, PFS, and TTNT, with expected higher, but manageable toxicity. The excellent OS in both arms suggests that chemotherapy-free strategies should be further explored. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01307605.
•Compared with rituximab only, a short rituximab-lenalidomide regimen improved CR rate and PFS in untreated symptomatic follicular lymphomas.•Excellent OS in both arms suggests that chemotherapy-free strategies should be further explored in follicular lymphoma.
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