Abstract
Background
Summary data furnishing a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study are often visualized with the aid of a scatter plot, in which single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)–outcome ...associations are plotted against the SNP–exposure associations to provide an immediate picture of the causal-effect estimate for each individual variant. It is also convenient to overlay the standard inverse-variance weighted (IVW) estimate of causal effect as a fitted slope, to see whether an individual SNP provides evidence that supports, or conflicts with, the overall consensus. Unfortunately, the traditional scatter plot is not the most appropriate means to achieve this aim whenever SNP–outcome associations are estimated with varying degrees of precision and this is reflected in the analysis.
Methods
We propose instead to use a small modification of the scatter plot—the Galbraith Radial plot—for the presentation of data and results from an MR study, which enjoys many advantages over the original method. On a practical level, it removes the need to recode the genetic data and enables a more straightforward detection of outliers and influential data points. Its use extends beyond the purely aesthetic, however, to suggest a more general modelling framework to operate within when conducting an MR study, including a new form of MR-Egger regression.
Results
We illustrate the methods using data from a two-sample MR study to probe the causal effect of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk, allowing for the possible effects of pleiotropy. The Radial plot is shown to aid the detection of a single outlying variant that is responsible for large differences between IVW and MR-Egger regression estimates. Several additional plots are also proposed for informative data visualization.
Conclusions
The Radial plot should be considered in place of the scatter plot for visualizing, analysing and interpreting data from a two-sample summary data MR study. Software is provided to help facilitate its use.
In a Guest Editorial, Cosetta Minelli and Gianluca Baio explain how VOI analysis can prioritize research projects by identifying uncertainty in existing knowledge and then estimating expected ...benefits from reducing that uncertainty.
Between 1990 and 2010, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) moved from the fourth to third most common cause of death worldwide. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease programme we ...quantified regional changes in the number of COPD deaths and COPD mortality rates between 1990 and 2010. We estimated the proportion of the change that was attributable to gross national income per capita and an index of cumulative smoking exposure, and quantified the difference in mortality rates attributable to demographic changes. Despite a substantial decrease in COPD mortality rates, COPD deaths fell only slightly, from three million in 1990 to 2.8 million in 2010, because the mean age of the population increased. The number of COPD deaths in 2010 would have risen to 5.2 million if the age- and sex-specific mortality rates had remained constant. Changes in smoking led to only a small increase in age- and sex-specific mortality rates, which were strongly associated with changes in gross national income. The increased burden of COPD mortality was mainly driven by changes in age distribution, but age- and sex-specific rates fell as incomes rose. The rapid response to increasing affluence suggests that changes in COPD mortality are not entirely explained by changes in early life.
This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors ...and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months.
Several statistical approaches have been proposed to assess and correct for exposure measurement error. We aimed to provide a critical overview of the most common approaches used in nutritional ...epidemiology.
MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS and CINAHL were searched for reports published in English up to May 2016 in order to ascertain studies that described methods aimed to quantify and/or correct for measurement error for a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology using a calibration study.
We identified 126 studies, 43 of which described statistical methods and 83 that applied any of these methods to a real dataset. The statistical approaches in the eligible studies were grouped into: a) approaches to quantify the relationship between different dietary assessment instruments and "true intake", which were mostly based on correlation analysis and the method of triads; b) approaches to adjust point and interval estimates of diet-disease associations for measurement error, mostly based on regression calibration analysis and its extensions. Two approaches (multiple imputation and moment reconstruction) were identified that can deal with differential measurement error.
For regression calibration, the most common approach to correct for measurement error used in nutritional epidemiology, it is crucial to ensure that its assumptions and requirements are fully met. Analyses that investigate the impact of departures from the classical measurement error model on regression calibration estimates can be helpful to researchers in interpreting their findings. With regard to the possible use of alternative methods when regression calibration is not appropriate, the choice of method should depend on the measurement error model assumed, the availability of suitable calibration study data and the potential for bias due to violation of the classical measurement error model assumptions. On the basis of this review, we provide some practical advice for the use of methods to assess and adjust for measurement error in nutritional epidemiology.
To explore the link between COVID-19 incidence, socio-economic covariates, and NHL incidence.
Ecological study design.
Sardinia, Italy.
We used official reports on the total cases of COVID-19 in ...2020, published data on NHL incidence, and socio-economic indicators by administrative unit, covering the whole regional population.
We used multivariable regression analysis to explore the association between the natural logarithm (ln) of the 2020 cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the ln-transformed NHL incidence in 1974-2003, weighing by population size and adjusting by socioeconomic deprivation and other covariates.
The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 increased in relation to past incidence of NHL (p < 0.001), socioeconomic deprivation (p = 0.006), and proportion of elderly residents (p < 0.001) and decreased with urban residency (p = 0.001). Several sensitivity analyses confirmed the finding of an association between COVID-19 and NHL.
This ecological study found an ecological association between NHL and COVID-19. If further investigation would confirm our findings, shared susceptibility factors should be investigated among the plausible underlying mechanisms.
Although several studies demonstrated that platelet count is higher in women, decreases with age, and is influenced by genetic background, most clinical laboratories still use the reference interval ...150-400×10(9) platelets/L for all subjects. The present study was to identify age- and sex-specific reference intervals for platelet count.
We analysed electronic records of subjects enrolled in three population-based studies that investigated inhabitants of seven Italian areas including six geographic isolates. After exclusion of patients with malignancies, liver diseases, or inherited thrombocytopenias, which could affect platelet count, reference intervals were estimated from 40,987 subjects with the non parametric method computing the 2.5° and 97.5° percentiles.
Platelet count was similar in men and women until the age of 14, but subsequently women had steadily more platelets than men. The number of platelets decreases quickly in childhood, stabilizes in adulthood, and further decreases in oldness. The final result of this phenomenon is that platelet count in old age was reduced by 35% in men and by 25% in women compared with early infancy. Based on these findings, we estimated reference intervals for platelet count ×10(9)/L in children (176-452), adult men (141-362), adult women (156-405), old men (122-350) and, old women (140-379). Moreover, we calculated an "extended" reference interval that takes into account the differences in platelet count observed in different geographic areas.
The age-, sex-, and origin-related variability of platelet count is very wide, and the patient-adapted reference intervals we propose change the thresholds for diagnosing both thrombocytopenia and thrombocytosis in Italy.
Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool "DYNAMO-HIA", this study quantified ...the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.
Observational studies on pubertal timing and asthma, mainly performed in females, have provided conflicting results about a possible association of early puberty with higher risk of adult asthma, ...possibly due to residual confounding. To overcome issues of confounding, we used Mendelian randomisation (MR), i.e., genetic variants were used as instrumental variables to estimate causal effects of early puberty on post-pubertal asthma in both females and males.
MR analyses were performed in UK Biobank on 243,316 women using 254 genetic variants for age at menarche, and on 192,067 men using 46 variants for age at voice breaking. Age at menarche, recorded in years, was categorised as early (<12), normal (12-14), or late (>14); age at voice breaking was recorded and analysed as early (younger than average), normal (about average age), or late (older than average). In females, we found evidence for a causal effect of pubertal timing on asthma, with an 8% increase in asthma risk for early menarche (odds ratio OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.12; p = 8.7 × 10(-5)) and an 8% decrease for late menarche (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97; p = 3.4 × 10(-4)), suggesting a continuous protective effect of increasing age at puberty. In males, we found very similar estimates of causal effects, although with wider confidence intervals (early voice breaking: OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.16; p = 0.06; late voice breaking: OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99; p = 0.03). We detected only modest pleiotropy, and our findings showed robustness when different methods to account for pleiotropy were applied. BMI may either introduce pleiotropy or lie on the causal pathway; secondary analyses excluding variants associated with BMI yielded similar results to those of the main analyses. Our study relies on self-reported exposures and outcomes, which may have particularly affected the power of the analyses on age at voice breaking.
This large MR study provides evidence for a causal detrimental effect of early puberty on asthma, and does not support previous observational findings of a U-shaped relationship between pubertal timing and asthma. Common biological or psychological mechanisms associated with early puberty might explain the similarity of our results in females and males, but further research is needed to investigate this. Taken together with evidence for other detrimental effects of early puberty on health, our study emphasises the need to further investigate and address the causes of the secular shift towards earlier puberty observed worldwide.
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